INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 26, 2018, 3:56 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, December 27, 2018  



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 217K; previous 214K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +8K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 1688000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +27K)



8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter U.S. International Investment Position



9:00 AM ET. October U.S. Monthly House Price Index



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:00 AM ET. November New Residential Sales



                       New Home Sales (expected 571K; previous 544K)



                       New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +5.0%; previous -8.9%)



                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 7.4)



10:00 AM ET. December Consumer Confidence Index



                       Cons Conf Idx (expected 133.5; previous 135.7)



                       Expectation Idx (previous 111)



                       Present Situation Idx (previous 172.7)



3:00 AM ET. December Agricultural Prices



                       Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -3.5%)



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin



                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.5M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.8M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.4M)



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



Friday, December 28, 2018 



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 2517.0K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2963.4K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 313.6K)



8:30 AM ET. November Advance Economic Indicators Report



9:45 AM ET. December ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI



                       PMI-Adj (expected 60.0; previous 66.4)



10:00 AM ET. November Pending Home Sales Index



                       Pending Home Sales (previous 102.1)



                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected +1.0%; previous -2.6%)



                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -6.7%)



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2773B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -141B)

                       

11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report



                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 441.457M)



                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.497M)



                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 230.103M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.766M)



                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 119.9M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.237M)



                       Refinery Usage (previous 95.4%)



                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 22.329M)



                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.848M)

                       

Monday, December 31, 2018 



10:30 AM ET. December Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey



                       Business Activity (previous 17.6)



                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 8.4)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The March NASDAQ 100 posted a key reversal up and closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6626.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 5752.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6397.52. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6626.95. First support is today's low crossing at 5820.50. Second support is long-term support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5752.25. 



The March S&P 500 closed sharply higher on Wednesday after spiking below key support marked by the April-10th 2017 low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2018 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2076.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2613.29 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2516.90. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2613.29. First support is today's low crossing at 2317.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2018 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2076.04.



The Dow posted a key reversal up and closed sharply higher filling Monday's gap crossing at 22,396.34 on Wednesday.The high-range close also suggest that Monday's gap marked an exhaustion gap to the selling, which began in early-October and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 21,600.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,164.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 23,331.66. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,164.63. First support is today's low crossing at 21,712.53. Second support is weekly support crossing at 21,600.34.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



March T-bonds closed down 30-points at 144-16.



March T-bonds closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 146-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 142-23 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 146-03. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 146-22. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 144-01. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 142-23.         



March T-notes closed down 150-points at 120-300.



March T-notes posted a key reversal down and closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 122.089 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.134 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 121.205. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 122.089. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.264. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.134.         



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



February crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off October's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.95. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 54.55. First support is Monday's low crossing at 45.13. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48. 



February heating oil posted an upside reversal on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 162.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 181.51 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 181.51. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 188.40. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 162.34. Second support is the June-19th-2017 low crossing at 150.08.



February unleaded gas posted a key reversal up as it closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off October's high, the January-10th 2016 low crossing at 110.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.69 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 151.77. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 157.28. First support is today's low crossing at 122.93. Second support is the January-10th 2016 low crossing at 110.45.



February Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.156 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.013 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.680. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.013. First support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.154. Second support is September's low crossing at 2.904.    



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March renews the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. If March extends last-Thursday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 95.38 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 97.20. Second resistance isweekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the reaction low crossing at 95.38. Second support is November's low crossing at 94.91.     



The March Euro closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 116.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 115.92. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 116.45. First support is November's low crossing at 113.53. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.    



The March British Pound closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2738 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off September's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2738. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2901. First support is December's low crossing at 1.2540. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384. 



The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off last-Thursday's high, November's low crossing at 1.0018 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0330 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.0252. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0256. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0097. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0018.



The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.37. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.82. First support is today's low crossing at 73.57. Second support is the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67. 



The March Japanese Yen posted downside reversal on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0921 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0895 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.0914. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0921. First support is December's low crossing at 1.0886. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0885.



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



February gold closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1285.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1247.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1270.30. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1285.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1255.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1247.80.



March silver closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.651 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 15.733 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 15.250. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 15.733. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.601. Second support is November's low crossing at 13.985.         



March copper closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, August's low crossing at 260.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 275.06 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 280.35. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. First support is today's low crossing at 264.20. Second support is August's low crossing at 260.00. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March Corn closed down 4 1/2-cents at 3.73 1/4. 



March corn closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off December's high and tested the September-November uptrend line crossing near today's close of 3.73 1/4.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing near 3.67 1/4 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 3.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.98 3/4. First support is the September-November uptrend line crossing near 3.73 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4. 



March wheat closed down 6 1/4-cents at 5.10 1/4. 



March wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 5.50 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.24 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 5.09. Second support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4.    



March Kansas City Wheat closed down 7-cents at 4.95 1/2. 



March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.13 would signal that If March renews the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.57. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.90. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.  



March Minneapolis wheat closed down 12 1/4-cents at 5.49 1/4. 



March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday and posted a new contract low as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 5.23 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.79 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.93. First support is today's low crossing at 5.48. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans closed down 14 1/2-cents at 8.70.



January soybeans closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 8.57 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.01 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 917. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 8.57. Second support is October's low crossing at 8.44 1/2.  



March soybean meal closed down $3.80 at 308.00. 



March soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 305.30 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 327.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 321.70. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is November's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40. 



March soybean oil closed down 36 pts. at 27.67. 



March soybean oil lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at 27.42 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 29.09 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at 29.33. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at 29.74. First support is today's low crossing at 27.58. Second support is November's low crossing at 27.42.   

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $0.08 at $60.38. 



February hogs closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at 59.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.76 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.84. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.76. First support is Monday's low crossing at 60.25. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.    



February cattle closed down $0.03 at 122.75. 



February cattle closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 123.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 123.50. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 123.67. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.26. Second support is December's crossing at 119.82.   

 

January Feeder cattle closed up $0.73 at $148.10. 



January Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 147.49 opens the door for a possible test of the November 21st reaction high crossing at 150.00. If January renews the decline off last Thursday's high, December's low crossing at 143.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.68. Second resistance is the November 21st reaction high crossing at 150.00. First support is December's low crossing at 143.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 142.67. 



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 9.51 is the next downside target.           



March cocoa closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, July's high crossing at 25.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.     



March sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.95 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March renews the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.91 is the next downside target.    



March cotton closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.     

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