INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 28, 2018, 8:02 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, December 28, 2018  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 2517.0K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2963.4K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 313.6K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. November Advance Economic Indicators Report

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. December ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI-Adj (expected 60.0; previous 66.4)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November Pending Home Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 102.1)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected +1.0%; previous -2.6%)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -6.7%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2773B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -141B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 441.457M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.497M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 230.103M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.766M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 119.9M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.237M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 95.4%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 22.329M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.848M)

 

                        

 

Monday, December 31, 2018  

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. December Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (previous 17.6)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 8.4)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher in late-overnight trading as is extends the rally off Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6569.73 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 5752.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6315.02. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6569.73. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5820.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5752.25.



The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2590.64 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If March renews the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2018 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2076.04 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2519.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2590.64. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 2317.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2018 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2076.04.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was higher in late-overnight trading while extending the trading range of the past six-days. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 146-23 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 146-03. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 146-23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 144-17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-10.    



March T-notes was higher in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.200 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 122.089 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 121.205. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 122.089. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 121.016. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.200. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



February crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.42 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the decline off October's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.42. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at 42.36. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48.  



February heating oil was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 180.07 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If February extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 162.34 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 180.07. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 194.43. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 163.80. Second support is the 87% retracement level of 2017-2018-rally crossing at 162.34.



February unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the decline off October's high, the 2016 low crossing at 110.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.69. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 151.77. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 124.09. Second support is the 2016 low crossing at 110.45.



February Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If February renews this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.156 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.908 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.561. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.908. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.252. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.156.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight and appears to be breaking out to the downside of seven-day trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 94.91 is the next downside target. If March renews this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 97.19. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 95.63. Second support is November's low crossing at 94.91.    



The March Euro was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 116.45 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the November-December-trading range. If March resumes last-Friday's decline, November's low crossing at 113.53 then the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 are the next downside targets. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 116.45. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 117.00. First support is November's low crossing at 113.53. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.  



The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2880 is the next upside target. If March resumes this fall's decline, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2880. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.2957. First support is December's low crossing at 1.2540. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384.  



The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0330 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 1.0117 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.0274. Second resistance the 50% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0330. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0097. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0018.  



The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 69.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.64 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.08. Second resistance is the 20-day crossing at 74.64. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 73.35. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 69.80.



The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0897 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0921 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 0.0914. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0921. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0902. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0897.   



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1286.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1252.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1286.10. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1312.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1252.90. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1236.50.  



March silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 15.733 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.624 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 15.435. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 15.733. First support the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.886. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.624.  



March copper was slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 274.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at 260.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 280.35. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 264.20. Second support is August's low crossing at 260.00.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was higher overnight as it rebounds off the September-November uptrend line. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.81 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.72 1/2. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.  



March wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.21 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 5.07 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4.       



March Kansas City Wheat closed down a 1/2-cent at 4.95. 



March Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.11 3/4 would signal that If March renews the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.90. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.  



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.77 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4 is the next downside target. If First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.66 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.77 3/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 5.44 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 8.71 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.12 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.46 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.72 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 8.71 1/4. Second support is October's low crossing at 8.58.  



March soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 316.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 305.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 321.70. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is November's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40. 



March soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at 27.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.58 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.58. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 29.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 27.58. Second support is November's low crossing at 27.42.  



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $0.20 at $60.57. 



February hogs closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at 59.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.32. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.56. First support is today's low crossing at 60.25. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.    



February cattle closed up $1.20 at 123.95. 



February cattle closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 127.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.035 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 124.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 127.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.04. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.30.   

 

March Feeder cattle closed up $0.88 at $146.65. 



March Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 149.23. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.11 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 147.35. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 149.23. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142.72. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.39 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 9.51 is the next downside target.           



March cocoa posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, July's high crossing at 25.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.     



March sugar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.93 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.     



March cotton closed lower on Thursday as it extended this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.     

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