Beans and tariffs
13 responses | 0 likes
Started by Jim_M - Dec. 28, 2018, 1:17 p.m.

According to the news beans are rallying on the tariff talk hopes again.  That and probably some dryness in SA.  

The heat and dryness might cut output, but nothing to write home about.  Tariff resolution?  I’ll believe it when I see it.  China lowered or dropped tariffs on all of soys sister beans.  Canola, etc.  But not soy.  What they have bought is a mere token

By jim - Dec. 28, 2018, 1:34 p.m.
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    I think a deal will be struck in January.  For bean prices I do not think purchases will change much. World stocks are still way too high and production is still growing. We have been over priced for 2 years and now are buried in stocks. Plant less......

By TimNew - Dec. 28, 2018, 1:40 p.m.
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Just to be clear, are you expecting  a comprehensive US/China trade deal in January, or something limited to ag?

By Jim_M - Dec. 28, 2018, 1:51 p.m.
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Trump does some things that I am behind.  Other times his train is off the tracks.  

By Jim_M - Dec. 29, 2018, 6:58 a.m.
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No, I have not watched the video.  When I read he was going on about 10% raises when in fact they are closer to 3% I figured he was in blow hard mode and I didn't need to see that.

By cliff-e - Dec. 29, 2018, 7:23 a.m.
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For China to lower tariffs on US grown non soy protein sources tells me they need feedstuffs for livestock to feed their growing population which is 4 times that of the US. It means more feedstuffs will leave this country which should result, thru competition, in improved prices for all protein sources.

By jim - Dec. 29, 2018, 10:25 a.m.
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    I think a total deal will be done not just Ags.

Also, I do not think China needs much Soya. The swine flu

has reduced their crush.

By mcfarm - Dec. 29, 2018, 10:57 a.m.
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Jim, are you the very wise now retired Jim that used to post here and moved to Florida?

By wglassfo - Dec. 29, 2018, 12:47 p.m.
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If you look at the trade talks china needs very little and yet those things they need are all important

China needs:

Protection from imports and huge amounts of exports, at any cost


All other things

China can easily negotiate a solution to the food issues

China doesn't need the other things as they have advanced their tech enough to live without stealing tech but they will use any and all of these other things as leverage in negotiations

China can not accept free flow of tariff free imports under any circumstances

China has to export and will do what ever it takes to keep the flow of exports continuing

Imports and exports are the problem and this  is where the trade talks will fail.

By jim - Jan. 1, 2019, 1 p.m.
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Not sure about wise, but the answer is YES

By Lacey - Jan. 1, 2019, 2:41 p.m.
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Good commentary Wayne.  Let's commend Trump for trying to pry open China for reciprocity.  Trump will win this, as revolution in China is more probable and quicker to start than in the US, unfortunately.

By mcfarm - Jan. 1, 2019, 6:53 p.m.
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You are way too modest Jim. Before you left here you were easily one of the brightest and well informed posters. Since you left the board has nearly died and is making a comeback thanks to Metmikes hard work. There are many new posters who rank mostly as flamed out libs with brains full of the mush  taught in our modern schools systems with few clues on how to survive without big gov. Nice that you took the time to post again...and hope you will see fit to continue. This board needs you and your life lessons.