I posted a some what lengthy reply to Richard post about oil
I imagine most people did not read or take some of my assumptions about Taiwan seriously
I just read a speech given by Xi and how serious they are about re-unification of Taiwan with the mainland
Of course they want to achieve this peacefully but did not rule out force
They also warned any outside interference by other nations, would be viewed as enemy interference
If Xi is willing to go public about re-unification and the use of force, this could get serious. One would have to think they are serious and trouble is brewing in the region. I understand china has held military exercises in the region. This has been an on going thorn in the side of china for a long time. One has to think china now believes they have the military strength to do more than just talk. They have stated publicly they can hit two air craft carriers with missiles and the USA can not stop the death of 10,000 people on board the two air craft carriers. The USA navy admits china could sink the air craft carriers
I am afraid the USA will have a dangerous decision to make in the near future
That decision is to either stay and risk the lives of 10,000 people and two carriers or with draw and cede control of the region to china who has thought of the South Seas and Taiwan as their personal territory
If china moves on Taiwan, with force, and in the process does sink the air craft carriers then what happens
I do not know
I see that Zero Hedge has picked up the speech by XI and published it on their web Site
You can now read and decide for yourself.
Wayne, sinking two aircraft carriers would be an act of war, and there could only be one response.
If only an invasion, we would probably use airstrikes, but no ground troops (except for "advisors").
Do you really think the USA would engage China in a war
How many of those missiles do you suppose Xi has
It won't start as a pre-emptive strike against the air craft carriers
It will start as a pre-emptive strike in the South Seas or Taiwan, most likely Taiwan
But would quickly esculate and you are correct
If the USA engages, then boom goes two air craft carriers
An act of war
China has stated very clearly foreign powers should not engage
In other words china is ready and willing to engage
USA would very soon be engaging both Russia and china in a war
Plus N Korea would attack S Korea
Japan and S Korea would engage
This is not some pip squeak country the USA usually pushes around and mostly loses those wars
USA doctrine has always to be able to fight two wars simulataneously
I think that idea went by the way side if it was china and Russia, some yrs ago
These are 3 nuclear powers
The whole region would go up in flames
The USA is getting some serious push back from china
The USA has never had this kind of push back since Vietnam and that was one country
Think about it for a moment
The USA and allies in the region can not possibly win
The USA is engaging in war 1000's of miles away
The supply line is too long
The war would be over before the supply line even got started
This would be the shortest war in memory, if the planet survives
The only way the USA has a chance is nuclear and does the USA risk the planet
Russia would destroy the USA in a nuclear exchange
There are no winners in a nuclear war
That has been established doctrine for yrs.
I don't think so
I hope not
A better doctrine is to pick your battles which the USA has done for yrs.
XI did not give that public speech on empty threats
Wayne, IMHO, no MAJOR country will use a nuclear weapon first. The next war will be fought with conventional weapons (and some unconventional weapons that we don't know exist). A war would probably end in a negotiation table stalemate, to prevent the use of nuclear weapons as a last resort when desperate times call for desperate means.
In any case, Taiwan is toast.
I can agree with your last post
Tks for the thoughts
I have always considered Taiwan to be part of China because of it's proximity. Always felt that they would reunite in time. Can't imagine the US trying to prevent that inevitable result. As stupid as trying to take the Crimean Port from Russia which has used it as it's southern port for 230 years.
My history isn't anything great. Just off the top of my head without doing any research and a lot of hazy recollection on my part but the big things are sort of correct.
Taiwan is a break away province/country [IDK] from main land china. Taiwan wants no part of china and communism.. China views Taiwan as if Calf ceded from the union and really belongs as part of the larger mainland. Each has their own view point on the issue.
The USA has some kind of agreement to protect Taiwan Don't you remember china making a big deal after Trump was installed and he spoke to Taiwan before china. China took that as a very big deal. China was not impressed to say the least. So: Now you know why the proximity to china and why as things stand now, most of us think Taiwan is toast if china invades Taiwan. China was not a military power when the USA agreed to protect Taiwan. About the only thing stopping china IMHO is world opinion and sanctions if china invaded Taiwan.