XI and Taiwan
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Started by wglassfo - Jan. 2, 2019, 5:08 a.m.

I posted a some what lengthy reply to Richard post about oil

I imagine most people did not read or take some of my assumptions about Taiwan seriously

I just read a speech given by Xi and how serious they are about re-unification of Taiwan with the mainland

Of course they want to achieve this peacefully but did not rule out force

They also warned any outside interference by other nations, would be viewed as enemy interference

If Xi is willing to go public about re-unification and the use of force, this could get serious. One would have to think they are serious and trouble is brewing in the region. I understand china has held military exercises in the region. This has been an on going thorn in the side of china for a long time. One has to think china now believes they have the military strength to do more than just talk. They have stated publicly they can hit two air craft carriers with missiles and the USA can not stop the death of 10,000 people on board the two air craft carriers. The USA navy admits china could sink the air craft carriers

I am afraid the USA will have a dangerous decision to make in the near future

That decision is to either stay and risk the lives of 10,000 people and two carriers or with draw and cede control of the region to china who has thought of the South Seas and Taiwan as their personal territory

If china moves on Taiwan, with force, and in the process does sink the air craft carriers then what happens

I do not know

By wglassfo - Jan. 2, 2019, 6:33 a.m.
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I see that Zero Hedge has picked up the speech by XI and published it on their web Site

You can now read and decide for yourself.

By carlberky - Jan. 2, 2019, 8:07 a.m.
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Wayne, sinking two aircraft carriers would be an act of war, and there could only be one response.

If only an invasion, we would probably use airstrikes, but no ground troops (except for "advisors").

By wglassfo - Jan. 2, 2019, 11:38 a.m.
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Hi Carl

Do you really think the USA would engage China in a war

How many of those missiles do you suppose Xi has

It won't start as a pre-emptive strike against the air craft carriers

It will start as a pre-emptive strike in the South Seas or Taiwan, most likely Taiwan

But would quickly esculate and you are correct

If the USA engages, then boom goes two air craft carriers

An act of war

China has stated very clearly foreign powers should not engage

In other words china is ready and willing to engage

USA would very soon be engaging both Russia and china in a war

Plus N Korea would attack S Korea

Japan and S Korea would engage

This is not some pip squeak country the USA usually pushes around and mostly loses those wars

USA doctrine has always to be able to fight two wars simulataneously

I think that idea went by the way side if it was china and Russia, some yrs ago

These are 3 nuclear powers

The whole region would go up in flames

The USA is getting some serious push back from china

The USA has never had this kind of push back since Vietnam and that was one country

Think about it for a moment

The USA and allies in the region can not possibly win

The USA is engaging in war 1000's of miles away

The supply line is too long

The war would be over before the supply line even got started

This would be the shortest war in memory, if the planet survives

The only way the USA has a chance is nuclear and does the USA risk the planet

Russia would destroy the USA in a nuclear exchange

There are no winners in a nuclear war

That has been established doctrine for yrs.

I don't think so

I hope not

A better doctrine is to pick your battles which the USA has done for yrs.

XI did not give that public speech on empty threats

By carlberky - Jan. 2, 2019, 2:05 p.m.
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Wayne, IMHO, no MAJOR country will use a nuclear weapon first. The next war will be fought with conventional weapons (and some unconventional weapons that we don't know exist). A war would probably end in a negotiation table stalemate, to prevent the use of nuclear weapons as a last resort when desperate times call for desperate means.  

In any case, Taiwan is toast.

By wglassfo - Jan. 2, 2019, 2:37 p.m.
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Hi Carl

I can agree with your last post

Tks for the thoughts

By Lacey - Jan. 3, 2019, 9:58 p.m.
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I have always considered Taiwan to be part of China because of it's proximity.  Always felt that they would reunite in time.  Can't imagine the US trying to prevent that inevitable result.  As stupid as trying to take the Crimean Port from Russia which has used it as it's southern port for 230 years.

By wglassfo - Jan. 4, 2019, 1:59 a.m.
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Golly Lacy

My history isn't anything great. Just off the top of my head without doing any research and a lot of hazy recollection on my part but the big things are sort of correct.

Taiwan is a break away province/country [IDK] from main land china. Taiwan wants no part of china and communism.. China views Taiwan as if Calf ceded from the union and really belongs as part of the larger mainland. Each has their own view point on the issue.

The USA has some kind of agreement to protect Taiwan Don't you remember china making a big deal after Trump was installed and he spoke to Taiwan before china. China took that as a very big deal. China was not impressed to say the least. So: Now you know why the proximity to china and why as things stand now, most of us think Taiwan is toast if china invades Taiwan. China was not a military power when the USA agreed to protect Taiwan. About the only thing stopping china IMHO is world opinion and sanctions if china invaded Taiwan.