KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 382.9)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +2.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 239.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +6.2%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1168.5)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -1.2%)
8:15 AM ET. February ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +180000; previous +234000)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity (expected -0.3%; previous +3.0%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +2.2%; previous -0.2%)
8:30 AM ET. January U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -55.1B; previous -53.12B)
Exports (USD) (previous 203.35B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +1.8%)
Imports (USD) (previous 256.47B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +2.5%)
10:00 AM ET. February Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 423.498M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.019M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 251.817M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.483M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 137.985M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.96M)
Refinery Usage (previous 87.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.872M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.582M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
3:00 PM ET. January Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +18.45B)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight sparked by the resignation of Gary Cohn, the head of President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council. Concerns about the prospect of a global trade war, prompted by Trump’s plan to introduce tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, were intensifying, as Cohn had opposed the tariff plan and was widely viewed as having a moderating influence. The European Union, a major U.S. trading partner, is expected to reveal its response today.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish with the overnight loss signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 6646.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 7047.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 7009.00. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 7047.25. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 6646.00. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 6504.28.
The March S&P 500 gapped down and was lower overnight over heightened concerns of a possible start to a trade war with some of the U.S.'s trading partners. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off the late-February high, the reaction low crossing at 2627.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2737.91 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the late-February high crossing at 2789.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2839.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2627.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2530.47.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-01 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's crossing at 143-22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 145-14. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-01. First support is February's low crossing at 142-14. Second support is weekly support crossing at 140-03.
March T-notes were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.286 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.227 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 121.095. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.286. First support is February's low crossing at 120.010. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: AprilNymex crude oil was lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 60.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 66.39 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 64.24. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 66.39. First support is the reaction low crossing at 60.75. Second support is February's low crossing at 7.90.
April heating oil was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 180.97 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 208.80. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 185.00. Second support is February's low crossing at 180.97.
April unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 194.67 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If April renews the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 165.19 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 194.67. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.83. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 185.66. Second support is February's low crossing at 165.19.
April Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 2.833 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.672 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.833. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2.983. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.673. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.565.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Tuesday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.73 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.46. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.67. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.46. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 89.43. Second support is February's low crossing at 88.15.
The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off last Thursday's low, February's high crossing at 125.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 124.61. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 125.80. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 121.66. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 121.15.
The March British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last Thursday's low.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3920 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 1.3568 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4160. Second high is January's high crossing at 1.4370. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.3719. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 1.3568.
The March Swiss Franc were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0693 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0555 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0693. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0908. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0555. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.0550.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 76.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.07. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.80. First support is Monday's low crossing at 76.92. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 76.04.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9348 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9680 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9491. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9680. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9348. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9159.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 1342.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1364.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60.
May silver was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past five-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 17.025 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If May renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 15.705 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.025. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.785. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 16.160. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705.
May copper was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 304.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 321.36 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 329.05. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 333.35. First support is Monday's low crossing at 309.55. Second support is February's low crossing at 304.65.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.91 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.77 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.91 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.01. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.77 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.68 1/4.
May wheat was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.38 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.65 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.16 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.38 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.75 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.65 3/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down 4-cents at 5.41 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's high, the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.01 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.44 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.13 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.01 1/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 6.39 3/4 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.39 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.57. First support is February's low crossing at 6.08. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were lower overnight as it consolidates below weekly resistance crossing at 10.80. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 10.91 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.39 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 10.91 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.59 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.39 3/4.
May soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 376.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 414.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 404.00. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 414.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 387.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 376.00.
May soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off November's high, the July-2016 low crossing at 31.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.80. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 33.50. First support is February's low crossing at 31.61. Second support is the July-2016-low crossing at 31.37.