It's January 7th....... Just another day? Do something special for somebody today. Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. Mild weather pattern continues for a couple more days....then cooling down, especially Northeast.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Winter Weather
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Snowfall the next 3 days:
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
High Temperatures today and tomorrow.
Extraordinarlity MILD for this time of year-early January.....but cold is poking its leading edge across the US border tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Turning much colder, especially northern tier but not too bad by January standards............except for the Northeast.
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Above to much above average reds shift westward, cold blues expand east, especially Northeast.
Weather maps for days 3-7 below:
Colder Canadian high pressure/air with reinforcements.
The latest liquid equivalent precip forecasts for this week are below.
West Coast is the wettest.
Late week 1 system in the South bears watching for potential Winter Storm in the Southeast. Larry is on it!
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Current Dew Points
A little moisture coming north.
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) |
Go to: Most Recent Image
Precipitation the past 24 hours
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
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Soil moisture anomaly:
Still wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.
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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from MONDAY:
Analysis starting from last week:
Friday: Pretty cold Midwest/East but not as cold as the previous run. Ridge West/Trough East couplet. Several members allow the polar vortex to shift far enough south for frigid air to settle in.
Very uncertain..........the European ensembles are not this cold and the Canadian ensembles have been too cold for the last month.
Saturday/Today: Similar to yesterday but not quite as cold or as much cross polar flow.
Sunday: MUCH milder than previous solutions. Mild members now outnumber cold ones. Still great uncertainty as week 2 progresses. Enough cross polar flow and bitter cold lurking just north of the US border so that any cold fronts with a decent southward push could be quite potent.
Monday: Looks a bit colder today. Same potentially Frigid pattern.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jan 22, 2019 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:
Friday: Huge disparity between cold and mild, wet/snow and dry.
Best agreement is for above precip in the East.
Saturday: Cold focused on the Northeast. Still the Ridge west, trough Northeast couplet.
Sunday: Coldest of the models(European ensemble was pretty mild). Ridge West, trough East extends pretty far north, to the higher latitudes. This will bring frigid air south across Canada. The most likely point of deep penetration into the US, will be in the Northeast.
Monday: 0z run was the coldest yet. Bone chilling cold! Polar vortex takes an excursion south, aimed towards Southeast Canada.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom:
Friday: AO is negative with some members very negative.....huge disparity/uncertainty. This favors frigid air moving from high latitudes to mid latitudes. NAO and PNA are close to zero.
Saturday: AO strongly negative as week 2 goes on, favors cold. NAO leaning slightly negative, PNA slightly positive favor cold in the Northeast(Midwest)
Sunday: AO still negative and changeable/uncertain but without the extreme negative solutions of previous days......still favors cold delivery south from high latitudes. NAO around zero and PNA slightly positive. Tipping odds for cold in the Northeast.
Monday: AO negative, favorable for cold to move from high latitudes to mid latitudes. NAO near 0(but actual weather maps seem like they would generate a -NAO) PNA a bit positive.......favorable for cold to push into USA in the Midwest/East.
The link below, now has the PNA index added at the bottom:
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Should start getting colder finally?
Update: OK, maybe not until the end of the month? Or maybe the sustained frigid weather forecast by some models late in week 2 for a long time will never happen and the models are just wrong.
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
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Previous posts:
By metmike - Jan. 6, 2019, 1:42 p.m.
Thanks Larry,
Looks like the models have reversed back to MUCH warmer during the first half of the week 2 period vs Friday. The GFS/ensembles still like the idea of cold in the Northeast after that(very unreliable period) but the European model ensembles keep it mild.
Canadian ensembles are not nearly as cold either.
Natural gas lower tonight.
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By WxFollower - Jan. 6, 2019, 5:10 p.m.
Agree on NG lower opening.
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By WxFollower - Jan. 6, 2019, 10:22 p.m.
Mike and I were correct. NG opened down and sharply at that. No money on it for me though as I’ve been in my usual flat position.
OK, I should have put the maps/post below in Weather, not natural gas:
The 0z GFS and Canadian model products came out a bit colder which is supporting NG a bit here.
The European model 762 hour update had a couple of very frigid blasts late this month into early February which help set up the initial support in early evening trading.
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By metmike - Jan. 8, 2019, 1:55 a.m.
Heres the Euro model starting on January 24th, every 24 hours......ending February 8th. These are 850 mb temp maps which is around 1 mile above the surface/ground and is in Celcius/Centigrade.
Some bitter cold air makes it south of the border for numerous days. -20 Deg C isotherm manages to get to the N.TN border on one occassion, with a -30 Deg C isotherm showing up in northern border states on several days.
