INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 11, 2019, 7:43 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, January 11, 2019   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December Real Earnings

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December CPI

 



 

 

                       CPI, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous +0.0%)

 



 

 

                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -2.2%)

 



 

 

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous  -0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

 



 

 

                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.9%; previous +2.2%)

 



 

 

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.2%; previous +2.2%)

 



 

 

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) * This

 

                    data will not be released if the partial U.S. Govt shutdown remains in effect

 



 

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels) (previous 1781M)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels) (previous 955M)

 



 

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels) (previous 974M)

 



 

 

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales) (previous 4.40M)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. December Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt

 



 

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading. The Nasdaq has climbed nearly 13% from its Christmas Eve low, yet it remains in a bear market. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 6683.50 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 6136.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6683.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6897.00. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 6136.50. Second support is December's low crossing at 5820.50.  



The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. From a somewhat broader perspective, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 exited their corrections in recent days with the rebound off December's lows that has helped to mend at least some of the stock-market wounds of 2018.A correction is usually defined as a drop of at least 10% from a recent peak. Some market analyst believe that an asset must put in a new high to officially emerge from a correction phase, while Dow Jones’s data group views an exit from that phase any gain of 10% from the correction low. It was concerns over trade and rising rates, and worries that global growth was receding with the U.S. was on the verge of a recession, that shattered investor confidence, and drove the stock market down from an autumn peak. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2631.97 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 2439.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2631.97. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2638.91. First support islast-Friday's low crossing at 2439.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 2317.70.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 152-18 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 148-27. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 152-18. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-08. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 144-00.    



March T-notes was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.153 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 123.270 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 123.080. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 123.270. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.153. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.301. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



February crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 48.12 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.28. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.36. First support is December's low crossing at 42.36. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48.  



February heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 197.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 190.53. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 197.95. First support is December's low crossing at 163.80. Second support is the 87% retracement level of 2017-2018-rally crossing at 162.34.



February unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.83. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 151.77. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 124.09. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 110.45.



February Henry natural gas was higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past eight-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, the February-2016 low crossing at 2.770 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's gap crossing at 3.278 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's gap crossing at 3.278. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.319. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.878. Second support is the February-2016 low crossing at 2.770.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.95 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 96.65. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 97.19. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 93.97.    



The March Euro was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 116.45 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the November-December-trading range. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 116.45. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 117.00. First support is December's low crossing at 113.78. Second support is November's low crossing at 113.53.   



The March British Pound was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2840 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes this fall's decline, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2840. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.2957. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2512. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384.  



The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0199 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0405 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0330. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0405. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0199. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0154.  



The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 76.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 75.99. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 76.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.51. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.30.



The March Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0912 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0957 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0957. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0925. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0912.   



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1312.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1273.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1300.40. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1312.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1273.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1248.60.  



March silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.251 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 15.955. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.251. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.797.  



March copper was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.26 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 280.35. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 254.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was higher overnight as it consolidate some of Thursday's loss. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. First support is December's low crossing at 3.72 1/2. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.  



March wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's loss. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is January's low crossing at 5.01 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.       



March Kansas City Wheat closed down 6 3/4-cents at 4.98 3/4. 



March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.06 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.  



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's loss. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.73. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans was higher on overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's loss. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.04 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March resumes the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 9.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.46 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.72 1/4. First support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.71 1/4.



March soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 313.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 327.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 323.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 313.50. Second support is December's low crossing at 307.10.  



March soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's loss. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 29.09 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 29.09. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 29.50. First support is December's low crossing at 27.58. Second support is November's low crossing at 27.42.  



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $0.30 at $64.08. 



February hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.03 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 59.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.03. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 66.80. First support is December's low crossing at 60.20. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.    



February cattle closed up $0.08 at 124.88. 



February cattle closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 127.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 125.48. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 127.95. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.61. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 120.47.   

 

March Feeder cattle closed up $0.18 at $145.08. 



March Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 149.23. If March resumes this month's decline, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 147.58. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 149.23. First support is Monday's low crossing at 142.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March resumes the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 9.51 is the next downside target. If March extends Tuesday's rally, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 11.02 is the next upside target.            



March cocoa closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, July's high crossing at 25.96 is the next upside target.      



March sugar closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.



March cotton closed lower on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target.      

Comments
By metmike - Jan. 11, 2019, 10:55 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks very much tallpine!