It's January 15th. Share your blessings with somebody today. Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. The real Winter weather is coming up later this month!!!
Here are the latest hazards across the country. Frigid weather on the way for the 2nd half of January-lots of snow:
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Winter Weather
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Snowfall the next day:
Forecast Hour: 024
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_024_snodpth_chng.gif
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
High Temperatures today and tomorrow.
Cold pokes south of the border on Wednesday.
Highs for days 3-7:
The cold blasts continue, starting NorthCentral!!!! The frigid Arctic air will spread southeast.
This will define the weather in week 2!
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Bitter cold heads south out of Canada in the N.Plains/Upper Midwest.........then pours southeast, decreasing the reds and increasing the blues.
The real cold is after this period.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Weather maps for days 3-7 below:
Arctic blast in the North, with a reinforcement that takes it farther southeast. Southern stream storm in the South......how and where will it phase with the northern stream? How much snow and where?
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for this week are below.
Things turn very active later this week and especially over the weekend.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Current Dew Points
Pretty dry air in place across much of the country.
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) |
Go to: Most Recent Image
Precipitation the past 24 hours
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
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Soil moisture anomaly:
Still wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.
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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
End of week 2....................0 ensembles from TUESDAY:
Analysis starting from 6 days ago, ending with today:
Wednesday: Same pattern but not as cold as the last 2 days.
Thursday: Still the same very cold pattern, a tad colder than yesterday.
Friday: Still the same very cold pattern with everything above applying. Polar vortex displaced south with cross polar flow and very northern stream dominant, which penetrates deeply across the US/Canadian border. Ridge West/Trough Midwest/East couplet.
Saturday: Not quite as amplified on the ensemble mean/average because a few members undercut the northern stream with Pacific flow.
Sunday: Very similar to yesterday. With pretty strong agreement outside of a few solutions that try to undercut the cold/deflect the northern stream back towards Canada. These are upper level maps. Dense, bitter cold at the surface coming south with Arctic high pressure will be hard to stop.......even when the pattern shifts in the upper levels.
Monday: Same as yesterday.
Tuesday: Similar to yesterday but with the polar vortex retreating north a bit.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jan 30, 2019 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:
Analysis, starting with a week ago:
Last Tuesday: Similar to yesterday. Ridge west, trough east couplet. Cold focused on the Northeast.
Wednesday: Same pattern but not quite as cold.
Thursday: Very cold with cold aimed a bit farther west on some solutions, more towards the Midwest vs Northeast vs yesterday.
Friday/Today: Extreme cold pattern. Ridge West/Trough East transports frigid air from high latitudes deeply south of US border..........similar agreement to Canadian ensembles above.
Saturday/Today: Same as yesterday. Almost universal agreement vs the Canadian model ensembles, now having a minority with undercutting southern stream. The European model ensembles agreed with this too.
Sunday: This particular set of solutions was the coldest yet of any model for any time frame. A couple members had the center of the polar vortex into the Midwest which would be extraordinarily rare and likely too extreme. The 6z and 12z runs were not as extreme at this particular time frame but all of them advertise sustained frigid weather for much of the country during week 2 and possibly beyond.
Monday: Similar to yesterday.
Tuesday: This was the coldest solution yet for this model, coming out just before midnight. WOW! It couldn't get any colder than this.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Wednesday: AO still plunges during week 2, favorable for cold to move from north to south in Canada into the US. NAO close to zero, NAO slightly positive.
Thursday: AO still negative(favorable for extreme cold to move south) but not a low as recent solutions, with a couple of exceptions. NAO goes from a bit positive to slightly negative at the end of the period. PNA slightly positive.
Friday: AO now extremely negative, to the bottom of the graph negative on some solutions. Strongly favors bitter cold moving from high to middle latitudes. NAO more negative than the last few days............helps push the cold into the US, especially Midwest/East. PNA a bit positive.........also helps cold pattern.
Saturday: AO still negative but not as extreme. NAO close to zero, leaning negative late. PNA modestly positive. Still strongly favors cold, just quite as extreme as yesterday.
Sunday: AO slightly more negative with a few in record, absolute bottom of the graph negative(from the 0z run). This greatly favors cold transport from high to mid latitudes. NAO drifts lower to slightly negative(favors cold to penetrate south into the US) and PNA a bit positive......helps air masses in the Midwest/East to have a north to south movement.
Monday: Very negative AO. NAO a bit more negative today. PNA slightly positive.
Tuesday: Same as yesterday. A couple of AO solutions bounce to zero, the rest are extremely low/cold.
The link below, now has the PNA index added at the bottom:
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Previous few days: The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks should continue to get much colder...........and colder!!
This has been happening. Now we just ascertain HOW cold and where the coldest weather will be.........and the heaviest snows.
Tuesday: Same things continuing.
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
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Craig Solberg @CraigSolberg 3h3 hours ago
20-30 degrees below normal ON AVERAGE from an ENSEMBLE in the 11-15 day period in what is seasonally about the coldest time of year Lots of agreement from GFS members on BITTER cold in the middle of the country as we finish the month
The 12z GFS individual ensembles are still extremely cold at the end of week 2.
Canadian ensembles, not quite this cold but here are the latest GFS ensembles. It would be difficult to make the pattern colder.........but deeper penetration south would probably do it.:
What time would the next significant weather release be posted?
I hope this works. It is the 46 day EURO ensemble 7 day temperatures anomaly. This is hinting that temperatures will be closer to normal through much of the Month of February. Green below average erodes as we head into middle Feb. Haven't posted much in a while...sorry.
Grant,
Those maps are showing precip, not temperatures.
Larry/MetMike
Any evidence of a warmer/shorter 'cold' timeframe?
NG collapses if this is not long duration cold event!
Same on me, but I am NOT interested in 'mere' re-urgitation of computer runs. Prefer your 'biased' "I have seen this before" "GUT"!!
Ahh, MetMike calling EVERY NG turn for four days, sometimes three times a day, during Katrina!!
My bias is NG has topped for the week. Perhaps a test of the 2am high, but TOPPED!
UGH! Showed the wrong GIF. I'll try and load the right one. The ensembles are showing well below average warming to near normal. But it still shows slightly below average temperatures. I'l;l have it shortly.
Sorry about the first Graphic. I was on air and dragged the wrong one. As you can see the trend is to go from well below average the next two weeks to slightly below average.
tjc as for a "Gut" feeling on the cold I personally don't see a short term break in the cold, next 14 days. If you trust the ensembles and analogs that compare what happens in this set up there is a 20% or greater that the minimum temperature will be lower than 0°F from a line just south of Kansas City to Paducah to Washington D.C. That's pretty far south. That percentage increases to 40% -80% in the Northeast and upper Midwest. Those percentages are between the 20th and 29th. So that is why I am buying into the prolong cold spell.
Hope that helps
Yes, that does help a great deal Grant. Thanks for the extra effort to get this forecast for us!
And welcome back!
Here was the 762 hour European model forecast from the most recent run, yesterday for 850mb temps, starting at day 15 and going out at 24 hour time intervals.
So Jan 26-Feb 15.
On this product(that has limited skill) there are something like 4 or 5 waves of cold with varying duration that hit from the Midwest to the Northeast.
The 0 Deg. C isotherm never penetrates extremely far southeast, so the Florida orange crop would not be seriously threatened with this scenario. For a good freeze scare, we should see the 0 Deg. C line, into Central Florida.
This model does take temps into the U-30's on the morning of Jan 31, then the low 40's on Feb 2 and Feb 9 in the northern fringes of orange grove country.
We really need something at least 10 degrees cold than that for a good scare.
tjc,
Thank you for the nice recognition/compliment.
