KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 362.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +23.5%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 255.2)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +16.5%)
Refinance Idx (previous 987.9)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +35.3%)
8:30 AM ET. December Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected -1.5%; previous -1.6%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.3%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -12.1%)
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.2%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.1%; previous +0.2%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.3%; previous +0.6%)
10:00 AM ET. January NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (expected 56; previous 56)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 439.738M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.68M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 248.062M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +8.066M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 140.042M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +10.611M)
Refinery Usage (previous 96.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.764M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.708M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
Thursday, January 17, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 216K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -17K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1722000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -28K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales * This data will not be released if
the partial U.S. Govt shutdown remains in effect
Corn (Metric Tons)
Soybeans (Metric Tons)
Wheat (Metric Tons)
8:30 AM ET. January Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 8.0; previous 9.4)
Prices Paid (previous 38.0)
Employment (previous 18.3)
New Orders (previous 14.5)
Prices Received (previous 26.2)
Delivery Times (previous 6.7)
Inventories (previous -0.2)
Shipments (previous 10.0)
8:30 AM ET. December New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building
Permits * This data will not be released if the partial U.S.
Govt shutdown remains in effect
Total Starts (expected 1.24M; previous 1.256M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -1.3%; previous +3.2%)
Building Permits (expected 1.29M; previous 1.328M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected -2.9%; previous +5.0%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2614B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -91B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, January 18, 2019
9:15 AM ET. December Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.6%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 78.5%; previous 78.5%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.4)
10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary data
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 96.4; previous 97.5)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 86.1)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.2)
10:00 AM ET. December Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to high prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6666.85 would open the door for a possible test of the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 6787.66. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6390.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6666.85. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 6787.66. First support is the reaction low crossing at 6136.50. Second support is December's low crossing at 5820.50.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2633.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2517.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2633.48. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2656.60. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2439.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 2317.70.
The Dow closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 24,342.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23,333.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 24,342.49. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,386.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23,333.78. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 22,638.41.
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March T-bonds closed down 2/32's at 145-11.
March T-bonds closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 144-30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 152-01 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 152-01. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 144-30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 144-13.
March T-notes closed down 20 points at 121-270.
March T-notes closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.206 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 123.270 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 123.055. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 123.270. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.206. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 120.280.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 48.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 52.48. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55. First support is December's low crossing at 45.13. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48.
March heating oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 176.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 176.25. Second support is December's low crossing at 162.35.
March unleaded gas closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 159.42 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 146.10. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 159.42. First support is December's low crossing at 124.24. Second support is the January-10th 2016 low crossing at 112.40.
March Henry natural gas closed lower as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.517 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 3.002 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.517. Second resistance is the December 20th reaction high crossing at 3.659. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 3.002. Second support is January's low crossing at 2.771.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.84. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.08. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 93.97.
The March Euro closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.83 confirmed that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 116.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 116.33. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 116.45. First support is January's low crossing at 113.78. Second support is December's low crossing at 113.62.
The March British Pound closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 1.3150 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off September's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3150. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3257. First support is January's low crossing at 1.2512. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384.
The March Swiss Franc closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it renewed the decline off last-Thursday's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0158 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0405 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0330. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0405. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0158. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.0097.
The March Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this month's rally, December's high crossing at 76.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 75.99. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 76.15. First support is December's low crossing at 73.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 72.93.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0916 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0957 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0957. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 0.0922. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0916.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
April gold closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1284.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1320.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1320.10. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1349.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1284.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1256.90.
March silver closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.338 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.955. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.338. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.837.
March copper closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 265.71. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.00. First support is January's low crossing at 254.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed down 7 1/4-cents at 3.71 1/4.
March corn closed lower on Tuesday and below the September-November uptrend line thereby opening the door for a possible test of November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4. March fell by nearly 2% Tuesday on U.S.-China trade concerns and technical selling.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above today's high crossing at 3.81 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.54 3/4.
March wheat closed down 2 3/4-cents at 5.11 1/2.
March wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 5.24 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. First support is January's low crossing at 5.01 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 3 1/2-cents at 4.95 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 5.05 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 3 1/2-cents at 5.62.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 5.23 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.72 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.72 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed down 8 3/4-cents at 8.94 3/4.
March soybeans closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 8.80 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.12 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 9.27 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.46 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.71 1/4.
March soybean meal closed down $2.10 at 309.70.
March soybean meal closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 307.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 317.00 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 324.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is December's low crossing at 307.10. Second support is November's low crossing at 305.30.
March soybean oil closed down 13 pts. at 28.27.
March soybean oil closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 29.50 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 27.58 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 29.09. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 29.50. First support is December's low crossing at 27.58. Second support is November's low crossing at 27.42.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed up $0.30 at $62.15.
February hogs closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 59.25 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.81. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 66.80. First support is December's low crossing at 60.20. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.
February cattle closed up $1.53 at 126.95.
February cattle closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off 2018's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 127.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 127.10. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 127.95. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.82. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 120.47.
March Feeder cattle closed up $0.35 at $144.75.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this month's decline, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 149.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 147.58. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 149.23. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 142.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March resumes the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 9.51 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 11.02 is the next upside target.
March cocoa closed sharply lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.64 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, July's high crossing at 25.96 is the next upside target.
March sugar closed higher on Tuesday as it renewed the rally off January's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, November's high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target.
Thanks much tallpine!