KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Wednesday, January 16, 2019  

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 362.7)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +23.5%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 255.2)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +16.5%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 987.9)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +35.3%)

8:30 AM ET. December Import & Export Price Indexes

                       Import Prices (expected -1.5%; previous -1.6%)

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.3%)

                       Petroleum Prices (previous -12.1%)

8:30 AM ET. December Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services  

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.2%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.1%; previous +0.2%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales  

                       Total Inventories (expected +0.3%; previous +0.6%)

10:00 AM ET. January NAHB Housing Market Index

                       Housing Mkt Idx (expected 56; previous 56)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 439.738M)

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.68M)

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl)  (previous 248.062M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +8.066M)

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 140.042M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +10.611M)

                       Refinery Usage (previous 96.1%)

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.764M)

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.708M)

2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book

Thursday, January 17, 2019  

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 216K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -17K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1722000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -28K)

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales * This data will not be released if

                    the partial U.S. Govt shutdown remains in effect

                       Corn (Metric Tons)

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons)

                       Wheat (Metric Tons)

8:30 AM ET. January Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (expected 8.0; previous 9.4)

                       Prices Paid (previous 38.0)

                       Employment (previous 18.3)

                       New Orders (previous 14.5)

                       Prices Received (previous 26.2)

                       Delivery Times (previous 6.7)

                       Inventories (previous -0.2)

                       Shipments (previous 10.0)

8:30 AM ET. December New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building

                    Permits * This data will not be released if the partial U.S.

                    Govt shutdown remains in effect

                       Total Starts (expected 1.24M; previous 1.256M)

                       Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -1.3%; previous +3.2%)

                       Building Permits (expected 1.29M; previous 1.328M)

                       Building Permits, M/M% (expected -2.9%; previous +5.0%)

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2614B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -91B)

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

Friday, January 18, 2019   

9:15 AM ET. December Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.6%)

                       Capacity Utilization % (expected 78.5%; previous 78.5%)

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.4)

10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary data

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 96.4; previous 97.5)

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 86.1)

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.2)

10:00 AM ET. December Regional & State Employment & Unemployment

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  

The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6660.54 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6400.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6660.54. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 6787.66. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6400.48. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6136.50.  

The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2631.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2519.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2631.97. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2683.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2439.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 2317.70.

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was lower overnight renewing the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 144-30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 152-18 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 152-18. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 144-30. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 144-00.    

March T-notes was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 121.160 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted while renewing the decline off January's high. If March resumes the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 123.270 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 123.080. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 123.270. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 121.160. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.301. 

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

February crude oil was slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 48.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is the the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.28. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.36. First support is December's low crossing at 42.36. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48.  

February heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 197.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 188.51. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 197.95. First support is December's low crossing at 163.80. Second support is the 87% retracement level of 2017-2018-rally crossing at 162.34.

February unleaded gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.46 would renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.46. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 151.77. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 124.09. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 110.45.

February Henry natural gas was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-January-decline crossing at 3.866 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 3.166 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-decline crossing at 3.632. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-decline crossing at 3.866. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 3.166. Second support is January's low crossing at 2.878.    

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 96.65. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 97.19. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 93.97.    

The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 115.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 113.77 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 116.45. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 117.00. First support is January's low crossing at 113.77. Second support is November's low crossing at 113.53.    

The March British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 1.3150 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2769 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.2971. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3150. First support is January's low crossing at 1.2512. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384.  

The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0160 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0405 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0330. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 1.0405. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0160. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0117.  

The March Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 74.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If March resumes the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 76.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 75.99. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 76.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.57. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.30.

The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past eight-days. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0917 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0957 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0957. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0922. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0917.   

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If April resumes the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1320.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1286.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1306.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1320.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1286.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1257.90.  

March silver was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.379 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.955. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.379. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.851.  

March copper was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 271.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 271.65. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 280.35. First support is January's low crossing at 254.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75.

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

March corn was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Tuesday's decline saw March breakout to the downside of the apex of an extended symmetrical triangle, which began forming in early-August of last year. Multiple closes below the September-November decline would confirm a downside breakout of the symmetrical triangle thereby opening the door for a test of November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 3.81 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.71. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.  

March wheat was higher overnight while extending the September-January trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is January's low crossing at 5.01 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.       

March Kansas City Wheat closed down 3 1/2-cents at 4.95 1/2. 

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 5.05 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.

March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.72 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.72. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4. 

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March soybeans was higher on overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-week's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 8.80 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.11 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.46 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.72 1/4. First support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.71 1/4.

March soybean meal was higher overnight due to short covering. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Of March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 307.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 316.60 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 323.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is December's low crossing at 307.10. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40. 

March soybean oil was slightly higher overnight as it appears to be forming a small symmetrical triangle. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 29.09 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 28.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 29.09. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 29.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 28.08. Second support is December's low crossing at 27.58.

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

February hogs closed up $0.30 at $62.15. 

February hogs closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 59.25 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.81. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 66.80. First support is December's low crossing at 60.20. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.    

February cattle closed up $1.53 at 126.95. 

February cattle closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off 2018's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 127.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 127.10. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 127.95. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.82. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 120.47.   

March Feeder cattle closed up $0.35 at $144.75. 

March Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this month's decline, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 149.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 147.58. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 149.23. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 142.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.  

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

March coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March resumes the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 9.51 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 11.02 is the next upside target.             

March cocoa closed sharply lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.64 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, July's high crossing at 25.96 is the next upside target.      

March sugar closed higher on Tuesday as it renewed the rally off January's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, November's high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March cotton closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target.