KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, January 17, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 216K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -17K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1722000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -28K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales * This data will not be released if
the partial U.S. Govt shutdown remains in effect
Corn (Metric Tons)
Soybeans (Metric Tons)
Wheat (Metric Tons)
8:30 AM ET. January Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 8.0; previous 9.4)
Prices Paid (previous 38.0)
Employment (previous 18.3)
New Orders (previous 14.5)
Prices Received (previous 26.2)
Delivery Times (previous 6.7)
Inventories (previous -0.2)
Shipments (previous 10.0)
8:30 AM ET. December New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building
Permits * This data will not be released if the partial U.S.
Govt shutdown remains in effect
Total Starts (expected 1.24M; previous 1.256M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -1.3%; previous +3.2%)
Building Permits (expected 1.29M; previous 1.328M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected -2.9%; previous +5.0%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2614B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -91B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, January 18, 2019
9:15 AM ET. December Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.6%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 78.5%; previous 78.5%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.4)
10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary data
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 96.4; previous 97.5)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 86.1)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.2)
10:00 AM ET. December Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 6787.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6400.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 6787.66. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7018.75. First support is the reaction low crossing at 6136.50. Second support is December's low crossing at 5820.50.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2631.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2520.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2631.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2656.60. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2439.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 2317.70.
The Dow closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 24,342.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23,371.07 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 24,342.49. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,365.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23,370.39. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 22,638.41.
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March T-bonds closed down 1/32's at 145-12.
March T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 144-30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 152-01 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 152-01. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 142-16.
March T-notes closed down 45 points at 121-245.
March T-notes closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 121.160 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 123.270 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 123.055. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 123.270. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 121.160. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 120.301.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 48.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 52.26. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55. First support is December's low crossing at 45.13. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48.
March heating oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 176.71 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 176.71. Second support is December's low crossing at 162.35.
March unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 159.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.49. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 160.10. First support is December's low crossing at 124.24. Second support is the January-10th 2016 low crossing at 112.40.
March Henry natural gas posted a key reversal down on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.521 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 3.002 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.521. Second resistance is the December 20th reaction high crossing at 3.659. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 3.002. Second support is January's low crossing at 2.771.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.79. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.08. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 93.97.
The March Euro closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 113.78.If March resumes the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 116.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 116.33. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 116.45. First support is January's low crossing at 113.78. Second support is December's low crossing at 113.62.
The March British Pound closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 1.3150 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off September's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3150. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3257. First support is January's low crossing at 1.2512. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top has been posted. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0160 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0405 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0330. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0405. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0160. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.0097.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, December's high crossing at 76.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 75.99. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 76.15. First support is December's low crossing at 73.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 72.93.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past eight-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0917 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0957 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0957. First support is today's low crossing at 0.0922. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0917.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
April gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1286.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1320.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1320.10. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1349.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1286.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1258.00.
March silver closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.382 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.955. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.382. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.852.
March copper closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 271.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 271.68. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 280.35.First support is January's low crossing at 254.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed up 2 3/4-cents at 3.74.
March corn posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline but remains below the September-November uptrend line. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 3.81 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.54 3/4.
March wheat closed up 1-cents at 5.12.
March wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 5.24 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. First support is January's low crossing at 5.01 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed unchanged at 4.95 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed unchanged on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 5.05 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up 3-cents at 5.65.
March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 5.23 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.72. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed up 2-cents at 8.95 1/4.
March soybeans closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 8.80 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.11 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 9.27 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.46 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.71 1/4.
March soybean meal closed up $0.90 at 310.20.
March soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 307.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 316.60 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 324.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is December's low crossing at 307.10. Second support is November's low crossing at 305.30.
March soybean oil closed down 3 pts. at 28.21.
March soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 27.58 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 29.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 29.09. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 29.50. First support is December's low crossing at 27.58. Second support is November's low crossing at 27.42.
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February hogs closed down $2.10 at $60.05.
February hogs closed sharply lower on Wednesday and renewed the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 58.78 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.72. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 66.80. First support is today's low crossing at 59.50. Second support is October's low crossing at 58.78.
February cattle closed up $0.88 at 127.83.
February cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off 2018's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 127.95. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.97. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.93.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.05 at $144.70.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 149.23 is the next upside target. If March resumes this month's decline, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 147.58. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 149.23. First support is January's low crossing at 142.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March resumes the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 9.51 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, July's high crossing at 25.96 is the next upside target.
March sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 13.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 73.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target.
Thanks very much tallpine!!