INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - March 12, 2018, 8:48 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, March 12, 2018   

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Regional & State Employment & Unemployment

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February Employment Trends Index

 



 

 

                       ETI (previous 106.93)

 



 

 

                       ETI, Y/Y% (previous +5.4%)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. February Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight having fully recovered all of the losses of January's sell off and now pushed to new contract highs. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 6795.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 7177.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6955.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6795.89.  



The June S&P 500 was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 2879.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2726.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2804.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2879.10. First support is February's low crossing at 2663.00. Second support is January's low crossing at 2596.10.    



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 146-01 is the next upside target. Closes below the February's low crossing at 141-14 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 144-14. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 146-01. First support is February's low crossing at 141-14. Second support is weekly support crossing at 140-03.  



June T-notes were slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.070 is the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 120.165 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 120.230. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.070. First support is February's low crossing at 119.140. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170. 



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: AprilNymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends last week's decline, February's low crossing at 57.90 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 66.39 is the next upside target. First resistance is the late-February high crossing at 64.24. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 66.39. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 59.95. Second support is February's low crossing at 57.90.  



April heating oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends last week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 180.97 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 190.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 190.39. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.86. First support is the reaction low crossing at 185.00. Second support is February's low crossing at 180.97. 



April unleaded gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 165.19 is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 194.86 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 194.86. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.32. First support is the reaction low crossing at 185.66. Second support is February's low crossing at 165.19. 



April Henry natural gas was higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.685 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 2.833 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.833. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2.983. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.685. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.565.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. If June resumes the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 87.83 is a potential downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 88.91. Second support is February's low crossing at 87.93.



The June Euro was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 126.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 125.47. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 126.58. First support is March's low crossing at 122.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 121.97. 



The June British Pound was slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3968 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 1.3628 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4207. Second high is January's high crossing at 1.4404. First support is March's low crossing at 1.3779. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 1.3628.  



The June Swiss Franc were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0559 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0754 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0754. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0986. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0559. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0458.



The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 76.06 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.68. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.72. First support is the reaction low crossing at 77.08. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 76.06.



The June Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9436 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9740 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9491. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9740. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9436. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9245.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 1342.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1342.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1364.40. Third resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60.



May silver was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past six-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 17.025 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If May renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 15.705 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.025. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.785. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 16.160. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705. 



May copper was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 304.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 317.65 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 329.05. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 333.35. First support is the overnight low crossing at 305.55. Second support is February's low crossing at 304.65. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of rally off January's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.80 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 3.93 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.01. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.86 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.80 1/2.  



May wheat was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.82 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.38 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.16 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.38 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.82 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.62 1/2.    



May Kansas City Wheat closed down 12 3/4-cents at 5.20 1/2. 



May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.07 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off December's high, the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.44 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.07 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.77.     



May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 6.39 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.39 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.57. First support is February's low crossing at 6.08. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans were lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.59 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 10.91 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at 10.32. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.19.



May soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If May extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 369.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 386.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 414.70. First support is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 369.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00.



May soybean oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off November's high, the July-2016 low crossing at 31.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 32.12. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.96. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 31.43. Second support is the July-2016-low crossing at 31.37.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed down $0.23 at $67.85. 



April hogs closed lower on Friday but remains above the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off January's high, last August's low crossing at 65.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.07. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 71.95. First support is the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60. Second support is last-August low crossing at 65.03.



April cattle closed up $1.35 at 123.13. 



April cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 118.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 127.95. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 120.90. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.

 

April Feeder cattle closed up $0.15 at $143.15. 



April Feeder cattle closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 140.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.04. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 153.10. First support is January's low crossing at 140.25. Second support is December's low crossing at 139.27.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.40 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.    



May cocoa closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 25.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



May sugar closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 12.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 13.33 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. 



May cotton closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 

Comments
By Vandenplas - March 12, 2018, 9:29 a.m.
Like Reply

I appreciate your sharing of the INO Market Commentary each day.  This report focuses on the technical aspects affecting commodities.  I assume you consider this commentary to be a good analysis, as I do.  

Do you have an equally good  source of fundamental analysis which comes out daily?

Thanks.