western drought
28 responses | 0 likes
Started by mcfarm - March 12, 2018, 6:05 p.m.

156 consecutive days at Dodge City with less than 1/10th of an inch of perecep

By Vandenplas - March 12, 2018, 6:28 p.m.
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Sounds about normal for Dodge City.  They grow squat out there.  They need to take MetMike's advice--you know that  research which talks about beneficial CO2 helping drought stricken crops.

By mcfarm - March 12, 2018, 6:47 p.m.
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metmike explains over and over and provides deep documentation to support his views. A rising co2 content is in direct correlation to rising crop production numbers. We have set records for years and yet some complain and continue to yap with their mouth full.

By mcfarm - March 12, 2018, 7:53 p.m.
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they grow nothing out there? what? by far most of the  wheat {Only about a billions bushels} is grown in the drought stricken area of Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Nebraska

By mcfarm - March 12, 2018, 8:17 p.m.
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hard to believe right now but e-wave has most everything bullish in Ag except feeders....corn to take out 449 then off to 6 bucks....this drought must spread in a hurry for this to happen

By metmike - March 13, 2018, 12:04 p.m.
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You are 100% correct mcfarm. That area is part of the belt that produces the majority of the HRW crop:


It is also the area with the most extreme drought:


Much of the wheat market rally over the past 2 months has been fueled by this.

HRW yields, even with perfect weather will not make trendline/average this year. Lots of Winterkill/severe cold on bare, bone dry ground out there too. 

By Vandenplas - March 13, 2018, 12:50 p.m.
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Wheat is harvested every month of the year, around the world.  So, local droughts have little effect on wheat prices, and wheat prices have minimal effect on soybean and corn prices because of this.  At best, wait a month and your drought dream is gone.

And with all that beneficial CO2 lurking around,  this wonderful drought busting gas should cause prices to drop.

Smart farmers will be building fires next to their corn and soybean fields soon. 

By metmike - March 13, 2018, 7:53 p.m.
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As I mentioned over the weekend, you have turned into somebody devoid of critical thinking on many issues........conditioned thinking vs objective, thoughtful or reasoned ideas.

It's never more obvious with you when commenting after mcfarm or Tim. Whatever they say... even if it was 2+2 =4.... you are compelled/consumed by your obsession and hatred to follow up with something argumentative. In this latest example, your  comments about wheat that followed mcfarms solid point about the drought and HRW crop in #1 wheat producing state Kansas......decisively  prove the point.

One just needs to look at the 2 graphs that I showed as evidence that mcfarm was on the money, then read your comments afterwards to see that...................you are your own worst enemy.  

By Vandenplas - March 13, 2018, 9:18 p.m.
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You are going to wear yourself out trying to psychoanalyze me.  You are wasting your time.  You have no idea why I counterattack a couple of right wingers,  or even who I am, and what makes me tick.

Why not stick to weather and continue to making excuses for a lying, rich bigot.  

You are somewhat correct in that I watch mcfarn, tim new--and you, for that matter--like a hawk.  Out of touch folks need watching.  

By metmike - March 13, 2018, 10:59 p.m.
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"You are going to wear yourself out trying to psychoanalyze me.  You are wasting your time.  You have no idea why I counterattack a couple of right wingers,  or even who I am, and what makes me tick."

I love analyzing things........including people and their behavior. Very often, people with neurotic behavior(s) will justify it with excuse X, Y or Z and they don't even understand themselves, so when somebody else identifies/diagnoses negative issues/traits that they are unable to recognize in themselves, they are in complete denial.

Think about it vandy. If you suddenly caught a glimpse  and realized who/what you are and how people really perceived you here, you would stop acting this way immediately.

Acting this way using a computer and not having to face actual human beings also allows you to escape having to reconcile your behavior/actions with the realities that personal contact imparts on the thinking process of most people that are not sociopaths. 

I am thinking that you are not a true sociopath but just act that way frequently here because you are a coward and clearly an internet bully. 

You have also become a creature of habit, acting a certain way for a decade(bullying and trolling) with conditioning and learning to get pleasure out of targeting specific posters that you dislike vs getting pleasure out of making a positive contribution to the forum that adds to other readers knowledge.

You especially like to read yourself and think of yourself as very clever.......with the hundreds of moronic statements and verbiage(about Trump or CO2 for instance) considered by you to be evidence  of it. 

See how much fun this is for me?

At least I am not like our former moderator, Alex......getting frustrated with you and nicknaming you "The priick" and.........as the moderator, also appreciating the additional posts that you inspire from those responding to your nonsense. 

I can write a dissertation about you if I want............or, just ignore you for weeks.  Either way, to me, you are like the subject of a study or a specimen in an experiment or even like a patient is to a doctor. 

You can lob inflammatory language or silliness in my direction or towards others here(giving yourself the false sense of being the guy in control and I NEVER would take it personal. It just keeps giving me more opportunities to analyze abhorrent behavior. 

The funniest thing about it, is that you have several personality traits in common with Trump. 

Dang  this is fun (-:

By cfdr - March 17, 2018, 6:52 p.m.
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Hi Mike,  I clicked on this forum, as I have not looked in for some time.  I see it hasn't changed, and I see that you are still putting up thoughtful posts.  I'd like to have a discussion about tariffs, but I see there are still the usual posters here who continue to post nothing but garbage - and I've decided that life's too short to put up with some people.

I did happen to receive a picture today, however, that perfectly illustrates what you just posted above, so I'll attach it here.

By TimNew - March 17, 2018, 8:36 p.m.
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A discussion on Tariffs would be good.  I suspect there is not too much disagreement on the subject.   I'd be interested in your take..

Good  meme  BTW,  so appropriate  :-)

By mcfarm - March 18, 2018, 9:42 a.m.
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wow love sam Elliot and the posting is priceless....thanks

By Vandenplas - March 20, 2018, 8:21 p.m.
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Is Dodge City about the size of Kansas, Texas, Nebraska and Oklahoma combined? 

By bear - March 13, 2018, noon
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in the desert southwest,  we have been in a drought since 1998.

we need a very good el nino year to pull out of it.  

By metmike - March 20, 2018, 10:05 a.m.
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Here's a treat for the forum..........some authentic information that the market uses to trade value in determining the price of our crops.

Contrast that with market, crop and weather misinformation intended to bash and discredit fellow posters here which flows freely from the individual that also excels at spewing hateful, anti Trump rhetoric in many of his posts that have zero to do with Trump. 

As shown previously, the severe Plains/Midwest drought from Feb/Mar has been whittled down to the S.Plains of KS/OK/TX, which is the key production area for our Winter Wheat crop(HRW). 



Though the USDA does not report conditions for the entire crop and all states until April, KS/OK/TX have been reporting ratings and conditions for the last 3 weeks and also monthly ratings during the Winter..........so the market has been well aware of the deterioration of the Hard Red Winter Wheat crop this year because of the drought.

Here's an example:

#1 producer Kansas on March 18th(before the rain but released yesterday at 3pm):


Winter wheat condition rated 17 percent very poor, 38 poor, 34 fair,10 good, and 1 excellent. 

At the end of November, the KS crop was rated 14% poor/very poor(51% g/ex) in the last USDA report for the entire crop. Because of the severe drought, by the end of January, the KS crop had gone to 44% p/vp, to the last rating(before the rain) to 55% p/vp and only 11% gd/ex(in the far east that got some rain)

Here are the ratings for the end of November 2017 to compare with:


So the $1 spike higher in wheat prices was almost entirely from the worsening drought and deteriorating Winter wheat conditions, as well as funds covering their record shorts in wheat and record shorts in corn(by buying). The same worsening drought and spiking wheat prices pulled up corn and beans(that were also assisted by the Argentina drought in Jan/Feb).

The US drought started breaking with massive rains earlier this month........putting the top in at the start of the month.

Kansas, finally got its first huge rain in 4 months Sunday Night and Monday, with more forecast in the extended which accelerated the price collapse as drought fears and long positions from huge funds got washed away.

However, there is 1 fact that we can't offset by these rains. The HRW crop is rated so low, that no matter how perfect the weather is from now on......in Spring, the crop has been permanently damaged and yield potential gone. p/vp can never recover to g/ex. It might get to fair in some locations. So the crop will be well below trend and well below average........but then, the huge price spike dialed the worst case scenario in  weeks ago and now, with rains returning, we have less than the worst case scenario.........a bad crop but maybe not a complete disaster.

Extended forecasts that added tons of rain to the driest spots yesterday:



OK vandy, your turn to tell us more about why the weather did/does not matter or Kansas isn't important(because mcfarm said it was).........and throw in your silly anti Trump rhetoric.

By cfdr - March 20, 2018, 10:16 a.m.
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Thanks, mike.  I always enjoy reading your posts.

By metmike - March 20, 2018, 10:30 a.m.
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YW cfdr,

HRW price has just  filled the break away gap higher at the end of January from the worsening drought forecasts and deteriorating crop condition. That can be pretty bearish as it means the market has shifted its mentality from buyers not caring about price...........just buying at the market previously(in Feb) 

The HRW price continues to be the weakest link as it has been the past 2 weeks, just as it was the leader up for the 6 weeks prior to that. 

If we would take all the rain out of the S.Plains forecast, we can hold here with confidence as this is good support if we turn dry again.

IF it stays wet and the S.Plains drought is eradicated then I don't want to be long.

By Vandenplas - March 20, 2018, 11:05 a.m.
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Weather matters, and I never said it didn't.  What I did say is they don't grow squat around Dodge City, KS.  I also said the "drought" at Dodge City will not affect corn and soybean prices significantly.

And finally I said Trump's tariffs will have a negative affect on grain prices if countries retaliate--which they are beginning to at least threaten to do so (and that is why I believe grain prices went down yesterday.

And Trump is still a stupid, rich, lying bigot, and shame on anyone who supports such a leader--his  policies be damned. 

Now for the "bring it on home, Curly....."

Go Stormy--and Roy, and Saccone, and McMike. 

By metmike - March 20, 2018, 11:35 a.m.
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You never disappoint when it comes to expectations for misleading posts that never make a positive contribution here and usually make a negative one. 

But the forum needs you.

  Seriously, having the privilege to read your posts(and huge fun for me to psychoanalyze because they are so neurotic ) allows us to appreciate the good things and good people in our world that much more.

To know those good things/people are good, sometimes you need a complete ahole to show you the difference. 

By Vandenplas - March 20, 2018, 1:12 p.m.
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Deflect, deflect, deflect.  The topic was drought, grain prices, Dodge City, KS area grain production, and Trump's tariffs.

It was not, and is not about you or me, although you want to garner sympathy and support for that by trashing me.

Carry on, Mr. Insecurity.

By metmike - March 20, 2018, 2:17 p.m.
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"Deflect, deflect, deflect.  The topic was drought, grain prices, Dodge City, KS area grain production, and Trump's tariffs.

It was not, and is not about you or me, although you want to garner sympathy and support for that by trashing me."

You just got totally obliterated in that discussion........... I made numerous comprehensive and authentic points from various angles related to that discussion with the documentation/evidence.......but you want to carry on the argument as usual.

Dude, you were exposed and decimated. Carrying on only leaves me to analyze your behavior afterwards because I already stated what there is for me to state about drought, grains, Kansas and crop prices(go back and read my post from earlier today).

And I'm not about to get into an argument about whether you agree or not or whether you said this or you said that or you meant this or meant that or I am doing this or that.

Read the previous post(s) with the actual facts(not my opinion or your opinion). Look at the maps, read the data. Continuing on will result in me either analyzing your self destructive, neurotic behavior or ignoring you because I am too busy to be amused. 

By Vandenplas - March 20, 2018, 3:59 p.m.
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I just love being analyze by a fake psychotherapist.

Carry on Dr. Phil.

By metmike - March 20, 2018, 7:57 p.m.
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Deleted long winded/rambling, non trading related, silly post that made no contribution.  

By Vandenplas - March 20, 2018, 8:17 p.m.
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What does your post have to do with the drought in Dodge City and grain prices?

Quit trying to be a therapist.  It is illegal to practice therapy from a distance; you must meet personally with the patient.  Good therapists know this. 

Keep defending the woman assaulting, lying, rich bigot, who congratulated Putin on his "victory" in the Russian election.  Not once has Trump chastised or called Putin out for poisoning a person(s)  in Britain, for meddling in our elections, for chemical genocide in Syria, etc.

Yet you and mcfark and others defend that evil sob.

Shame on you, and shame on you for pretending to be a psychotherapist--and an illegally practicing one as well.

And shame on Alex for sharing confidential information with you.

And shame on you for breaking that confidentiality as well.

And I am such a bad guy????  Find a mirror, Curly.

Go Stormy! 

By mcfarm - March 21, 2018, 6:49 a.m.
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don't know why insist on dragging me into this and calling me names  along the way so buzz off....again...this has been kind of entertaining though, like watching a cat play with a mouse, catch and release, catch and release.......and poor old vandy will never figure it out

By Vandenplas - March 21, 2018, 7:20 a.m.
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Regarding "name calling," what ever gave you that impression?  Of course you have never engaged in calling me names, right?

In case you missed it, I asked you a trade related question in another post, and I will repeat it here:

Is Dodge City, Kansas as big as Texas, Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma combined?  You seem to believe that when it comes to drought in and around Dodge city.      

By mcfarm - March 21, 2018, 10:45 a.m.
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yes exactly what I said above. Around the drought stricken area of dodge city near Kansas, ok , neb, and texas

do us all a favor and copy and paste that Sam Elliot picture and post it on your bathroom mirror and try to read it every morning

By mcfarm - March 21, 2018, 10:45 a.m.
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yes exactly what I said above. Around the drought stricken area of dodge city near Kansas, ok , neb, and texas

do us all a favor and copy and paste that Sam Elliot picture and post it on your bathroom mirror and try to read it every morning