KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, March 15, 2018
8:30 AM ET. February Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.4%; previous +1.0%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.5%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +4.3%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1927.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2653.4K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 428.5K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 228K; previous 231K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +21K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1870000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -64K)
8:30 AM ET. March Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 13.1)
Employment Idx (previous 10.9)
New Orders Idx (previous 13.5)
Prices Received (previous 21.5)
8:30 AM ET. March Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 25.8)
Prices Paid (previous 45.0)
Employment (previous 25.2)
New Orders (previous 24.5)
Prices Received (previous 23.9)
Delivery Times (previous 4.5)
Inventories (previous -0.9)
Shipments (previous 15.5)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. March NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (expected 72; previous 72)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1625B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -57B)
1:45 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:00 PM ET. January Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, March 16, 2018
8:30 AM ET. February New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.29M; previous 1.326M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -3.0%; previous +9.7%)
Building Permits (expected 1.33M; previous 1.396M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected -5.0%; previous +7.4%)
9:15 AM ET. February Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous -0.1%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 77.7%; previous 77.5%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.2)
10:00 AM ET. March University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 99.0; previous 99.9)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 90.2)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.1)
10:00 AM ET. January Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. January Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
Monday, March 19, 2018
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Financial Report – Industry
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday following yesterday's key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 6821.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. With June extending this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 7214.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6983.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6821.23.
The June S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2736.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off February's low, February's high crossing at 2879.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2806.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 2879.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2736.43. Second support is March's low crossing at 2663.00.
The Dow closed sharply lower on Wednesday as fears of a potential trade war resurfaced after President Donald Trump announced that his administration will seek to trim the U.S.’s trade deficit with China by $100 billion via tariffs. Both the materials and industrial sectors are pressured as they are seen to have the most exposure to trade issues. Among the most notable decliners, Boeing Co. fell 3% as a report by the New York Times suggested that Boeing is a prime target for China to retaliate against in the event of a full-blown trade war. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow renews the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 23,360.29 is the next downside target. If the Dow extends the rally off March's low, the late-February high crossing at 25,800.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 25,800.35. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 26,338.03. First support is March's low crossing at 24,217.76. Second support is February's low crossing at 23,360.29.
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June T-bonds closed up 26/32's at 144-30.
June T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 146-01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-07 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If June renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 140-03 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 145-24. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 146-01. First support is February's low crossing at 141-14. Second support is weekly support crossing at 140-03.
June T-notes closed up 65/32's at 120-170.
June T-notes closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 121-030 is the next upside target. If June resumes this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 117.295 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 120.230. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.030. First support is February's low crossing at 119.140. Second support is weekly support crossing at 117.295.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 57.90 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 66.66 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 64.24. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 66.66. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 60.06. Second support is February's low crossing at 57.90.
April heating oil closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the aforementioned decline, February's low crossing at 180.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 190.84. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.60. First support is February's low crossing at 180.97. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 176.89.
April unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 192.78 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If April extends the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 183.84 is the next downside target. First resistance is the late-February high crossing at 201.22. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 208.46. First support is February's low crossing at 183.84. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 179.34.
April Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.701 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 2.833 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.811. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.833. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.701. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.565.
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The June Dollar closed slightly higher on Wednesday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 87.83 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 88.91. Second support is February's low crossing at 87.83.
The June Euro closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off the March 1st low, February's high crossing at 126.58 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.97. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 125.47. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 126.58. First support is the March 1st low crossing at 122.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.97.
The June British Pound closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 1.4207 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.3628 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4207. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4404. First support is March's low crossing at 1.3779. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.3628.
The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0745 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0559 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0745. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0986. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0559. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0458.
The June Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 76.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.46. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.04. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 76.92. Second support is weekly support crossing at 76.04.
The June Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2016's trading range crossing at 0.9732 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 0.9382 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2016's trading range crossing at 0.9542. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2016's trading range crossing at 0.9732. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.9382. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.9343.
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April gold closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1342.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1342.90. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1364.40. Third resistance is January's high crossing at 1370.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60.
May silver closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 17.025 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the February-March trading range. Closes below March's low crossing at 16.160 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.025. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.785. First support is March's low crossing at 16.160. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705.
May copper closed higher on Wednesday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 317.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 304.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 317.81. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 320.00. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 305.55. Second support is February's low crossing at 304.65.
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May Corn closed down 3 1/4-cents at 3.88 1/2.
May corn closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.82 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 4.01 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.95 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.01. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.88 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.82 1/4.
May wheat closed up 3-cents at 4.89 1/4.
May wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.84 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.38 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.16 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.38 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.84 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.64 1/2.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 4 1/2-cents at 5.24 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.12 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off December's high, the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.44 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.70 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.12 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.82.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down 3 3/4-cents at 6.21 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 6.39 3/4 is the next upside target. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.39 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.57. First support is February's low crossing at 6.08. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4.
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May soybeans closed down 17 3/4-cents at 10.31.
May soybeans closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it renewed this month's decline.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.57 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 10.91 1/2. First support is the the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.19. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.04.
May soybean meal closed down $4.90 at 370.60.
May soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 382.40 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 414.70. First support is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 369.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00.
May soybean oil closed down 50 pts. At 31.72.
May soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, the July-2016 low crossing at 31.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the late-February high crossing at 32.96. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 33.50. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 31.43. Second support is the July-2016 low crossing at 31.37.
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April hogs closed down $0.85 at $66.88.
April hogs closed lower on Wednesday but remains above support marked by the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, last August's low crossing at 65.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.75. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 71.95. First support is the 87% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at 66.60. Second support is last-August low crossing at 65.03.
April cattle closed up $1.10 at 123.00.
April cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.09 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 118.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 127.95. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.10. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 120.75. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.
April Feeder cattle closed up $0.43 at $142.73.
April Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 140.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 147.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 147.08. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 153.10. First support is January's low crossing at 140.25. Second support is December's low crossing at 139.27.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.99 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 25.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 12.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.22 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target.