the case for corn
5 responses | 0 likes
Started by mcfarm - Jan. 28, 2019, 6:57 a.m.

corn demand is strong

export demand 

exports are running plus 17% v year ago

inspections are plus 60% v a year ago

weekly sales are 117% v a year ago

any sell off in futures in an opportunity

SA not a huge  corn threat but they grow a lot of corn and the graph of possible production is at large degree down with weather

Comments
By bcb - Jan. 28, 2019, 9:52 a.m.
Like Reply

I like corn and we should NOT break 371. Target 389-391 down the road. (CH)

What the USDA is going to do with back log of reports is anybody's guess?

By metmike - Jan. 28, 2019, 11:09 a.m.
Like Reply

Export inspections have been pretty good recently but were down a bit this past week.

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

By wglassfo - Jan. 28, 2019, 11:23 a.m.
Like Reply

I am a bit concerned about new crop price. Both corn and beans, once the crop is planted

How many acres get switched to corn due to possible continuation of china soybean tariffs. So many possibilities, too many to list

We have a strong cash basis and cash corn is more than usual for 2020 delivery out of our bins

I am completely sold on old crop and almost all forward sold on new crop . Our area will always grow something. Our area never suffers complete crop failure, but hail is biggest threat, so forward contracting is safe if one does not contract too much. I usually forward contract 150 bu/acre on a cash contract delivery price

Our cash basis is unusually strong for some reason both old crop and new crop. I will plant very few beans next yr.

No idea what the big picture soy/corn planted ratio or acres will be??

I think we will be looking at pennies or nickels on corn price instead of 25 cent pieces. Beans and china are the big bad bear in the room, and seem to affect most mid west crop prices. Traders seem to think china, china all the time. Plus china pig crop is down due to disease.

China never tells the truth so most assume it is probably worse case for piggies. Maybe should watch meat import demand for china, in near future or perhaps longer depending on china ability for meat stock storage.

JMHO



By mcfarm - Jan. 28, 2019, 11:52 a.m.
Like Reply

wayne we can never out guess the market of mother nature. That is why we usually stay with our crop rotations

By mcfarm - Jan. 28, 2019, 2:25 p.m.
Like Reply

opposing those good numbers above I have just looked and although we have had goo corn umbers we still to average 51m/w for usda expectations....in fact in comparison the beans have done better lately as a percentage than corn....so corn needs to keep the mo and even better it