Shall oil in the US
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Started by Richard - Jan. 29, 2019, 1:09 p.m.

Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London

wrote a comment at the end of the article which sums up my opinion too:

The Achilles heel of US Shale oil is that its wells suffer precipitous depletion rates estimated at 70%-90% soon after a well is completed. Because of the rapid declines in the rates of production from shale wells, companies must first drill enough new wells to offset the loss of production from previous wells.

The US shale oil industry has never been profitable since its inception. Shale oil producers can’t stop production otherwise they can’t get loans to remain afloat. It is becoming like “robbing Peter to pay Paul” or as the author of this article described it aptly as a Ponzi scheme.

But with the huge increase in the number of operating wells, companies are having to spend more than half of their capital budgets on simply replacing lost production before drilling wells that add to production. That number is expected to reach 75% by 2021 rising even to 100% at some point. With rig counts dropping; capital expenditures likely to be cut in the face of low prices; and more and more of that budget being used simply to replace existing production, it's possible that the demise of the industry long anticipated by the industry's critics is neigh.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-The-Permian-Bull-Run-Coming-To-An-End.html

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By metmike - Jan. 29, 2019, 2:42 p.m.
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Thanks Richard!


From your article:

"Oil production, it seems, is being overstated industry-wide by 10 percent and 50 percent in the case of some companies, according to The Wall Street Journal"