INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 31, 2019, 7:53 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, January 31, 2019  

 



 

 

7:30 AM ET. January Challenger Job-Cut Report

 



 

 

                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -17.3%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index

 



 

 

                       ECI, Q/Q% (expected +0.8%; previous +0.8%)

 



 

 

                       ECI, Y/Y% (previous +2.8%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales * The release date for this data may

 

                      be changed following the end of the partial U.S. Govt shutdown on 25 January

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December  Personal Income & Outlays * The release date for this data

 

                    may be changed following the end of the partial U.S. Govt shutdown on 25 January

 



 

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.8%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.9%; previous +1.9%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 199K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -13K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1713000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -24K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. January ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI-Adj (expected 61.4; previous 65.4)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2370B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -163B)

 

                        

 

3:00 PM ET. January Agricultural Prices * The release date for this data may be

 

                      changed following the end of the partial U.S. Govt shutdown on 25 January

 

                      Farm Prices, M/M%

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, February 1, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January U.S. Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +170K; previous +312K)

 



 

 

                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.9%; previous 3.9%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.48)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD)  (previous +0.11)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +3.2%)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)

 



 

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous +11K)

 



 

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +301K)

 



 

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 63.1%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. January US Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (expected 54.8; previous 53.8)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 91.0; previous 98.3)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 87.0)

 



 

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)

 



 

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 116.1)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place * The

 

                        release date for this data may be changed following the end

 

                        of the partial U.S. Govt shutdown on 25 January

 



 

 

                       New Construction (expected +0.5%)

 



 

 

                       Residential Construction

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January ISM Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Manufacturing PMI (expected 54.0; previous 54.1)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 54.9)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 56.2)

 



 

 

                       Inventories (previous 51.2)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 51.1)

 



 

 

                      Production Idx (previous 54.3)

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. January Global Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 51.5)

 



 

 

4:00 AM ET. January Domestic Auto Industry Sales

 



 

 

                       Auto Sales Annualized (expected 17.2M; previous 17.55M)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7023.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6641.51 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6897.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7023.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6641.51. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6136.50.  



The March S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2706.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2610.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2706.38. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2610.47. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2439.00.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 146.11 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.11. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 144-00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 142.16.



March T-notes was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 122.090 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted and would open the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at 123.080. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 120.301 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.090. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.080. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 120.071.



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



March crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 50.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.55. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.66. Second support is December's low crossing at 42.67.  



March heating oil was slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 182.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52. First support is the reaction low crossing at 182.80. Second support is December's low crossing at 162.35. 



March unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above January's high crossing at 147.96 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 124.24 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 147.96. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 153.48. First support is Monday's low crossing at 134.13. Second support is December's low crossing at 124.24. 



March Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 2.771 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 3.090 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.406. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.431. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.840. Second support is January's low crossing at 2.771.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 94.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 95.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 96.38. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 97.19. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 95.04. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54.    



The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 116.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 114.53 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 116.33. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 117.00. First support is January's low crossing at 113.37. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.    



The March British Pound was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2962 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's low, October's high crossing at 1.3356 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3257. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3356. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2962. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2707.  



The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight following Wednesday's upside reversal, which suggest that a short-term low might be in or is near. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0164 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this month's decline, November's low crossing at 1.0018 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0164. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0354. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.0048. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0018. 



The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 74.86 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 76.32. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 74.86. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.30.



The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0922 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0933. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0946. First support is January's low crossing at 0.0913. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0907.   



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1349.50 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 1281.50 would confirm a top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight crossing at 1328.70. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1349.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1281.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1272.90.  



March silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 15.195 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 16.130. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support last-Tuesday's low crossing at 15.195. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.067.  



March copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overnight but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 280.35 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 263.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 280.35. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 263.45. Second support is January's low crossing at 254.30. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it continues to extend the September-January trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.83 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is January's low crossing at 3.71. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.  



March wheat was lower overnight while extending the September-January trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.08. Second support is Jan.'s low crossing at 5.01 1/4. 



March Kansas City Wheat closed up 2-cents at 5.02 1/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 4.92 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.  



March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.69 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.80. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.61. Second support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 9.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 8.91 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 9.27 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 9.41. First support is the reaction low crossing at 8.91 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/2.



March soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the September-January trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 307.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 316.50 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 316.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 323.60. First support is January's low crossing at 309.10. Second support is December's low crossing at 307.10.  



March soybean oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 30.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 30.44. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 30.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.68. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.04.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed down $0.33 at $62.23. 



April hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at 59.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.52 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.52. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 67.40. First support is the 75% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at 61.69. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at 59.81.   



April cattle closed up $0.25 at 128.05. 



April cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extend the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 128.15. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 125.48. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.83.   

 

March Feeder cattle closed up $0.05 at $144.30. 



March Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.40 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes this month's decline, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.47. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 147.58. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 141.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 10.04 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.51 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



March cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 20.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 23.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.     



March sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-Friday's decline, January's low crossing at 11.69 is the next downside target. If March renews this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target. 



March cotton closed higher on Wednesday while extending that trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.72 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target. 

Comments
By metmike - Jan. 31, 2019, 10:18 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!