Weather Friday
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Started by metmike - Feb. 1, 2019, 10:20 a.m.

Hello February!   Share your blessings with somebody today. Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.

Bitter cold blast is rapidly receding ..................Good bye polar vortex!  


This is what the Polar Vortex looks like right now, already well over 1,000 miles northeast of where it was 2 days ago, lifted back into Southeast Canada.

   

gfs_namer_012_500_vort_ht.gif

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max.    

Here are the latest hazards across the country. Much milder air coming in to replace the cold.


Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   


US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Wind Chill Map



Legend

                                        

                          


Current Jet Stream




Winter Weather

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml


Image result for image of snowflakes


Snowfall the next 3 days:

 

Forecast Hour:  084
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_084_snodpth_chng.gif

   

nam_namer_084_snodpth_chng.gif

   


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

Comments
By metmike - Feb. 1, 2019, 10:21 a.m.
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High Temperatures 

Intense cold receding fast! Very mild air replaces it. 

   

By metmike - Feb. 1, 2019, 10:25 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:


Very mild  to start in the much of the country, especially south and east. More cold shots N.Rockies to NorthCentral that pushes southeast and moderates mid/late next week.



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Feb. 1, 2019, 10:27 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?


Incredible temperature contrast across the country from frigid northwest to mild southeast.


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif



https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Bwbg.gif

By metmike - Feb. 1, 2019, 10:30 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below:


Southern stream takes over with much milder air dominating(turning wet next week)..............northern stream still has some intense cold to deliver...........aimed farther west but tracking slowly across the country  next week...........and the cold air behind it modifying.

Winter Storm(s) with Snow in the cold air, rain to the east.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

By metmike - Feb. 1, 2019, 10:32 a.m.
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By metmike - Feb. 1, 2019, 10:34 a.m.
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Current Dew Points


Super Duper  Incredibly dry air going back north. Moisture returning.
  
Current Dew Points

                                    


Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                          

Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
 

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

Precipitation the past 24 hours


                                    


    

You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

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     Soil moisture anomaly:


Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 


Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Feb. 1, 2019, 10:44 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z ensembles from FRIDAY
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:


Last  Monday: 12z run: Milder solutions are gaining favor, colder ones losing out but still possible. Entry point of the cold looks farther west than it did on last weeks solutions. Yesterdays colder 12z model has been the exception to this trend the last 2 days.

Tuesday: 12z run: Though most of the recent solutions have been milder, more undercutting/Pacific flow and less northern stream, this last one is slightly colder again.

Wednesday: Same milder theme as previous solutions late in week 2, with the exception of yesterdays 12z run.

Thursday: For the first time in awhile, the 0Z forecast is colder. The ridge west/trough east couplet has magnified again, though shifted to the west, so the entry point of the cold would be a bit farther to the west.

Friday: This particular model is colder yet. Stronger ridge west/trough east solution on the average/mean. Some solutions have a piece of the polar vortex dropping pretty far south again.

Saturday: The subtle shift west in the large scale features noted earlier in the week is becoming more apparent with time. This, as upper level ridging tries to build in the southeast. This would warm things up in the east and cool things down in the west vs the recent pattern......and crank up the moisture flow.

Sunday: Same as previous theme. More ridge building in the Southeast today.

Monday: Ridge building continues in the southeast. Very pronouced/obvious on the mean today. However, the northern stream is still exerting significant influence out of Canada and will be battling this southern stream feature late in week 2.

Tuesday: The showdown continues between the building southern stream upper level ridge in the Southeast and the Northern stream. Today, on this model, at 2 weeks, on some solutions, the northern stream has a renewed surge into the northern tier of states. Enormous uncertainty.............not on the main players but on the strength of them and especially on the weather in the battle zone and timing of weather features that they cause/location of their dominance at distant times frames like this.

Wednesday(PM): Northern stream and cold make a come back during week 2, strengthening and pushing farther southeast as the southern stream upper level ridge in the Southeast weakens a bit. The coldest air will be farther west than with this recent intense cold. Great uncertainty on how strong the upper level ridge will be in the East.

Thursday: Similar to yesterday afternoons update.

Friday: Same battle between upper level ridge in the Southeast(with warmth) and Upper level trough in the West to Plains with the northern stream from Canada aimed towards the trough, loaded with plenty of cold because of cross polar flow pouring into Canada. Very active, with alot of precip, huge temperature gradient from the far southeast to northwest. Cold should make it pretty far southeast in week 2.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Feb 16, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Feb. 1, 2019, 10:46 a.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with a week ago:


Last Sunday:  At the end of week 2 we have a battle between the pattern displayed over the past 10 days............large scale, full latitude ridge west/trough east couplet in North America with the polar vortex displaced unusually far south and an attempt for Pacific flow to undercut that northern stream dominate flow. The northern stream is still winning here.

Monday: The northern stream dominated solutions are steadily losing ground, although the cold on this model is still aimed towards the Northeast on several solutions.

Tuesday: The northern stream continues to be deflected out of the US picture by many members.................but still several that disagree. 

Wednesday: More widespread agreement on milder as week 2 progresses.

Thursday:  Much colder! Ridge west/trough east and northern stream trying to flex its muscles again.

Friday: Still pretty cold and northern stream dominance from Canada to northern tier but some solutions battle this with a southern stream. Possible upper level ridge in the far south/Gulf of Mexico? The 06z run that came 6 hours after this, very early this morning didn't look nearly as cold to me.

Saturday: Now the solutions with a southern stream and upper level ridge in the southeast are growing. This would warm it up and pump moisture northward. But the northern stream is battling to remain strong on several but getting smaller solutions and it effects mostly the northern tier.

Sunday: Ridge building in the Southeast........battling still, potentially active northern stream cold waves farther north/northwest.

Monday: Southern stream upper level ridge in the Southeast......warm and moist air on its back side. Northern stream almost out of the picture on this model vs the Canadian model thats more bullish the northern stream. However, the 06z run of the GFS ensembles was colder with that stream aimed into the Upper Midwest/Northeast.

Tuesday: Welcome back Northern Stream! Huge, renewed surge of the northern stream. On some solutions, another fairly far south incursion of the Polar Vortex(or at least an extension of it south) but nothing like this current event......except  for the extremes.

Wednesday: Tremendous uncertainty and differences.

Thursday:  A lot of different solutions. 

Friday: Different than the Canadian ensembles! More cold aimed towards the Northeast, not as much upper level ridging in the Southeast.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

By metmike - Feb. 1, 2019, 10:53 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.



Last Monday: AO continues solidly negative, good for cold air movement south. NAO around zero is neutral. PNA has continued to drop and is more negative again today. More negative than its been in a long time in fact. This suggests a potential pattern change with less ridging west to more troughing there. This would change the jet stream in the US and could deflect the northern stream back towards Canada in the East.

Tuesday: Similar to yesterday. AO solidly negative, good for cold air moving south but the NAO is slighly positive and PNA is a bit negative which will make it tougher for cold to get into the US.

Wednesday:  AO less negative. NAO more positive, PNA more negative. All make a case for the February forecast to be morphing milder.

Thursday: AO strongly negative, favorable for cold air delivery. PNA shifts more positive, more favorable for cold to continue south, especially compared to the last few days but NAO is positive, which is less favorable for cold in the East. So the entry point of cold late in week 2 is in question?

Friday: AO is at the bottom of the graph, extremely negative for some solutions, others almost at zero...........tremendous spread. Very favorable for cold to be flushed south from high to mid latitudes. NAO a tad positive so not especially favorable for cold air delivery southward in the East. PNA is positive and favorable for cold going south but not decisive and there is alot of spread and uncertainty.

Saturday: The AO is light years higher vs yesterday........bounces back up in week 2 instead of crashing lower.....towards zero near the end of week 2. This greatly reduces the risk of extreme cold in February. The NAO is a bit positive still, not especially favorable for cold to push south and the PNA is close to neutral.

PM comment: The sharp changes like this often happen when there is a pattern change coming. It may feature the southern stream building an upper level ridge in the Southeast. The strength of this feature battling with the northern stream are some key elements to monitor on model solutions. At this point, it looks like it will cause warming in the east(where there is much more residential heating demand potential and cooling in the west).

Sunday: AO negative but not extreme as a few days ago, more like yesterday(so cold can travel south thru Canada). NAO a bit positive,. PNA a bit negative, not especially great to push cold very far south into the US...........but it can still get to the Northern Tier.

Monday: AO moderately negative and about the same as Sunday. This is favorable for cold to travel south thru Canada. NAO around zero. PNA is negative which will act to sort of repel cold from penetrating deeply into the US(limiting it to northern states.

Tuesday: AO.........the spread doesn't get wider than this. From extremely low to extremely high. This tells us how much uncertainty there will be, especially with regards to the influence of the northern stream in week 2. NAO is a bit positive and PNA slightly negative which will provide some resistance to cold trying to penetrate deeply south into the US after tracking south of the Canadian border.

Wednesday: Lot's of spread with the AO and uncertainty still. Leaning negative and favorable for cold to push into the northern parts of the US from Canada. NAO very uncertain. PNA however has decent agreement on being negative which supports the cold coming in farther west than what we've seen recently and not penetrating too far south in the Eastern US.

Friday: AO a bit negative and favorable for cold to track south thru Canada and make it into the US. NAO a bit positive.............not so good for cold in the East. PNA increasing again as week 2 progresses...more favorable for cold pushing into the US farther east. Alot of uncertainty!

The link below, now has the PNA index added at the bottom:


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/1579                      

By metmike - Feb. 1, 2019, 10:55 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Updated Friday Afternoon!


Big battle between the upper level ridge in the Southeast and southern stream and upper level trough to the west with northern stream cold air feeding into it...........these features will cause a lot of precip! Cold should be moving east  in week 2.



Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  


the 8-14 day outlooks
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Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability