Happy Ground Hog Day! Share your blessings with somebody today. Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.
Big warm up in progress!
This is what the Polar Vortex looks like right now, over 1,500 miles northeast of where it was earlier this week, lifted back into Southeast Canada...which is not an unusual spot in Winter.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max.
Here are the latest hazards across the country. Much milder air coming in to replace the cold.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Current Jet Stream
Snowfall the next 3 days:
Forecast Hour: 084
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_084_snodpth_chng.gif
|Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning|
Intense cold left quickly! Very mild air replacing it.
Highs for days 3-7:
A rainbow of temperature bands from NorthCentral to Southeast!
80 degree temperature contrast between Texas and North Dakota!
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Incredible temperature contrast across the country from frigid northwest to mild southeast.
Weather maps for days 3-7 below:
Southern stream battles Northern stream!!
A front separating 2 distictly different air masses(battle zone)........goes back and forth, then sweeps southeast, with modified cold and Canadian High Pressure spreading in.
Snow and ice in the cold air, rain to the east.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Active next week. Lots of rain(heavy in the Ohio Valley)..........snow in the colder air, MUCH farther northwest.
Day 1 below:
Day 2 below:
Day 3 below
Days 4-5 below:
Days 6-7 below:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Current Dew Points
Super Duper Incredibly dry air going back north. Moisture returning.
Latest radar loop
|Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)|
Go to: Most Recent Image
Precipitation the past 24 hours
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Soil moisture anomaly:
Still wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.
Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z ensembles from SATURDAY
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:
Last Saturday: The subtle shift west in the large scale features noted earlier in the week is becoming more apparent with time. This, as upper level ridging tries to build in the southeast. This would warm things up in the east and cool things down in the west vs the recent pattern......and crank up the moisture flow.
Sunday: Same as previous theme. More ridge building in the Southeast today.
Monday: Ridge building continues in the southeast. Very pronouced/obvious on the mean today. However, the northern stream is still exerting significant influence out of Canada and will be battling this southern stream feature late in week 2.
Tuesday: The showdown continues between the building southern stream upper level ridge in the Southeast and the Northern stream. Today, on this model, at 2 weeks, on some solutions, the northern stream has a renewed surge into the northern tier of states. Enormous uncertainty.............not on the main players but on the strength of them and especially on the weather in the battle zone and timing of weather features that they cause/location of their dominance at distant times frames like this.
Wednesday(PM): Northern stream and cold make a come back during week 2, strengthening and pushing farther southeast as the southern stream upper level ridge in the Southeast weakens a bit. The coldest air will be farther west than with this recent intense cold. Great uncertainty on how strong the upper level ridge will be in the East.
Thursday: Similar to yesterday afternoons update.
Friday: Same battle between upper level ridge in the Southeast(with warmth) and Upper level trough in the West to Plains with the northern stream from Canada aimed towards the trough, loaded with plenty of cold because of cross polar flow pouring into Canada. Very active, with alot of precip, huge temperature gradient from the far southeast to northwest. Cold should make it pretty far southeast in week 2.
Saturday: Huge disparity in individual solutions/members. Possible tenacious upper level ridge in the far Southeast, deep trough farther west with cold plunging into it. Heavy precip possible.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Feb 17, 2019 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:
Analysis, starting with a week ago:
Last Saturday: Now the solutions with a southern stream and upper level ridge in the southeast are growing. This would warm it up and pump moisture northward. But the northern stream is battling to remain strong on several but getting smaller solutions and it effects mostly the northern tier.
Sunday: Ridge building in the Southeast........battling still, potentially active northern stream cold waves farther north/northwest.
Monday: Southern stream upper level ridge in the Southeast......warm and moist air on its back side. Northern stream almost out of the picture on this model vs the Canadian model thats more bullish the northern stream. However, the 06z run of the GFS ensembles was colder with that stream aimed into the Upper Midwest/Northeast.
Tuesday: Welcome back Northern Stream! Huge, renewed surge of the northern stream. On some solutions, another fairly far south incursion of the Polar Vortex(or at least an extension of it south) but nothing like this current event......except for the extremes.
Wednesday: Tremendous uncertainty and differences.
Thursday: A lot of different solutions.
Friday: Different than the Canadian ensembles! More cold aimed towards the Northeast, not as much upper level ridging in the Southeast.
Saturday: More upper level ridging in the Southeast/East than yesterday. Anomalous upper level trough to the west. Heavy precip. Cold West/Central, warm East.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Last Saturday: The AO is light years higher vs yesterday........bounces back up in week 2 instead of crashing lower.....towards zero near the end of week 2. This greatly reduces the risk of extreme cold in February. The NAO is a bit positive still, not especially favorable for cold to push south and the PNA is close to neutral.
PM comment: The sharp changes like this often happen when there is a pattern change coming. It may feature the southern stream building an upper level ridge in the Southeast. The strength of this feature battling with the northern stream are some key elements to monitor on model solutions. At this point, it looks like it will cause warming in the east(where there is much more residential heating demand potential and cooling in the west).
Sunday: AO negative but not extreme as a few days ago, more like yesterday(so cold can travel south thru Canada). NAO a bit positive,. PNA a bit negative, not especially great to push cold very far south into the US...........but it can still get to the Northern Tier.
Monday: AO moderately negative and about the same as Sunday. This is favorable for cold to travel south thru Canada. NAO around zero. PNA is negative which will act to sort of repel cold from penetrating deeply into the US(limiting it to northern states.
Tuesday: AO.........the spread doesn't get wider than this. From extremely low to extremely high. This tells us how much uncertainty there will be, especially with regards to the influence of the northern stream in week 2. NAO is a bit positive and PNA slightly negative which will provide some resistance to cold trying to penetrate deeply south into the US after tracking south of the Canadian border.
Wednesday: Lot's of spread with the AO and uncertainty still. Leaning negative and favorable for cold to push into the northern parts of the US from Canada. NAO very uncertain. PNA however has decent agreement on being negative which supports the cold coming in farther west than what we've seen recently and not penetrating too far south in the Eastern US.
Friday: AO a bit negative and favorable for cold to track south thru Canada and make it into the US. NAO a bit positive.............not so good for cold in the East. PNA increasing again as week 2 progresses...more favorable for cold pushing into the US farther east. Alot of uncertainty!
Saturday: AO is higher than its been in awhile, close to zero, not as favorable for cold but it's changing and uncertain from day to day. NA is positive and not favorable for cold in the East. PNA is negative, cold in the West but not the East. Tremendous uncertainty for placement of the main features could cause these indices to change fast.
The link below, now has the PNA index added at the bottom:
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated Saturday Afternoon!
Big battle between the upper level ridge in the Southeast and southern stream and upper level trough to the west with northern stream cold air feeding into it...........these features will cause a lot of precip!
| Precipitation Probability|
|the 8-14 day outlooks|
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