INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 4, 2019, 7:39 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, February 4, 2019  

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. January ISM-NY Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Business Index (previous 65.4)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3) * Release

 

                        delayed from 7 Jan due to the partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government which                  

 

                        ended 25 January.

 



 

 

                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous -2.1%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.4%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -4.4%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -4.3%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

 



 

 

                       Total Orders, M/M%

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M%

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M%

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Employment Trends Index

 



 

 

                       ETI (previous 111.61)

 



 

 

                       ETI, Y/Y% (previous +5.4%)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7023.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6702.54 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7023.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7280.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6702.54. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6136.50.  



The March S&P 500 was mostly steady overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2633.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2706.38. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2633.34. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2439.00.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 148-27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 147-01. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 144-00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 142.16.



March T-notes was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that the corrective rebound off January's low might be coming to an end. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.014 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 123.080 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 122.190. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.080. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 120.071.



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



March crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 50.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.55. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 52.76. Second support is December's low crossing at 42.67.  



March heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 182.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52. First support is the reaction low crossing at 182.80. Second support is December's low crossing at 162.35. 



March unleaded gas was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above January's high crossing at 147.96 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. If March resumes the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 124.24 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 147.96. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 153.48. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 134.13. Second support is December's low crossing at 124.24. 



March Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 2.565 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.968 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.090. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.406. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.688. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.565.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 95.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 94.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 96.38. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 97.19. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 95.04. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54.    



The March Euro was lower overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 116.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 114.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 116.33. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 117.00. First support is January's low crossing at 113.37. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.    



The March British Pound was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2998 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's low, October's high crossing at 1.3356 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3257. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3356. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2998. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2707.  



The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0160 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 1.0018 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0160. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0354. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.0048. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0018. 



The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18. First support is the reaction low crossing at 74.86. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.30.



The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight and poised to renew the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0908 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.0925 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0933. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0946. First support is January's low crossing at 0.0913. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0908. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1349.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1302.20 would confirm a top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1331.10. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1349.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1303.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1276.20.  



March silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.674 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 16.200. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support last-Tuesday's low crossing at 15.195. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.151.  



March copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 285.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 268.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 280.35. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. First support is the reaction low crossing at 263.45. Second support is January's low crossing at 254.30. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was steady in subdued trading overnight as it continues to extend the September-January trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.83 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is January's low crossing at 3.71. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.  



March wheat was lower overnight while extending the September-January trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.08. Second support is Jan.'s low crossing at 5.01 1/4. 



March Kansas City Wheat closed up 9 3/4-cents at 5.08 3/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 4.92 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.  



March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.70 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.80. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.61. Second support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans was slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 8.91 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 9.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 9.27 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 9.41. First support is January's low crossing at 8.91 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/2.



March soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the September-January trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 316.50 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 307.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 316.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 323.60. First support is January's low crossing at 309.10. Second support is December's low crossing at 307.10.  



March soybean oil was lower overnight following last-Friday's key reversal down signaling that a double top with October's high has been posted.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 30.71 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 30.62. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 30.71. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.84. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.16.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed down $0.10 at $60.13. 



April hogs closed sharply lower on Friday as it extended the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at 58.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 63.03. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.78. First support is the 87% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at 59.81. Second support is August's low crossing at 58.2.  



April cattle closed down $0.03 at 126.27. 



April cattle closed lower on Friday following Thursday's huge key reversal down. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 129.48. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 125.48. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.01.   

 

March Feeder cattle closed down $0.03 at $142.52. 



March Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday following yesterday's key reversal down. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. Closes above Thursday's high crossing at 145.58 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.47. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 147.58. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 141.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Friday while extending the trading range for the past two-months. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.72 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes below December's low crossing at 9.86 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. 



March cocoa closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 20.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.87 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.     



March sugar closed lower on Friday as it forms a small symmetrical triangle. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 11.69 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target. 



March cotton closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.55 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target. 

Comments
By metmike - Feb. 4, 2019, 11:23 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!