INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 5, 2019, 7:35 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, February 5, 2019  

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +2.5%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.1%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.8%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +6.5%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. January US Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 54.4)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

 



 

 

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 52.3)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 46.8)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 56.7; previous 57.6)

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 59.9)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 57.6)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 56.3)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 62.7)

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. January Global Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 53.1)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.0M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.2M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.2M)

 



 

 

  N/A               Trump delivers second State of the Union address

 



 

 

  N/A               NASEO Energy Policy Outlook Conference

 



 

 

Wednesday, February 6, 2019  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 388.7)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -3.0%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 266.2)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.3%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1049.9)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.5%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (expected +1.7%; previous +2.2%)

 



 

 

                       Unit Labor Costs (expected +1.7%; previous +1.2%)

 



 

 

830 AM ET. November U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services * Release

 

                    delayed from 8 Jan due to the partial shutdown of the U.S.

 

                    federal government which ended 25 Jan

 



 

 

                       Trade Balance (USD) (expected -54.6B; previous -55.49B)

 



 

 

                       Exports (USD) (previous 211.05B)

 



 

 

                       Exports, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Imports (USD) (previous 266.53B)

 



 

 

                       Imports, M/M%  (previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Online Help Wanted Index

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 445.944M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.919M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 257.38M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.235M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 141.27M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.122M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 90.1%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.815M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.645M)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it is doing much of the heavy lifting, as investors look ahead to another week of high-profile earnings and developments in U.S.-China trade talks. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7023.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6728.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7023.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7280.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6728.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6136.50.  



The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2642.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2728.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2642.85. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2439.00.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was  lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 148-27 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 147-01. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 144-00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 142.16.



March T-notes was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that the rally off January's low might be coming to an end. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.029 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 123.080 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 122.190. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.080. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 120.071.



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



March crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 50.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.55. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.02. Second support is December's low crossing at 42.67.  



March heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 182.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52. First support is the reaction low crossing at 182.80. Second support is December's low crossing at 162.35. 



March unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above January's high crossing at 147.96 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. If March resumes the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 124.24 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 147.96. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 153.48. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 134.13. Second support is December's low crossing at 124.24. 



March Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 2.565 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.957 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.090. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.406. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.639. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.565.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 95.54 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 94.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 96.38. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 97.19. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 95.04. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54.    



The March Euro was lower overnight while extending the November-February trading range. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 116.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 114.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 116.33. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 117.00. First support is January's low crossing at 113.37. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.    



The March British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3007 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, October's high crossing at 1.3356 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3257. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3356. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3007. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2707.  



The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 1.0000 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0156 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0156. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0354. First support is November's low crossing at 1.0018. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.0000. 



The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18. First support is the reaction low crossing at 74.86. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.30.



The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0908 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.0925 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0933. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0908. Second support is the reaction low crossing at  0.0904.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1303.30 would confirm a top has been posted. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1349.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1331.10. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1349.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1303.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1277.80.  



March silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.688 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 16.200. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support last-Tuesday's low crossing at 15.195. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.178.  



March copper was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 285.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 269.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. First support is the reaction low crossing at 263.45. Second support is January's low crossing at 254.30. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was steady to fractionally higher in subdued trading overnight as it continues to extend the September-February trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to fractionally higher opening when the day session begins trading. Trading is likely to remain subdued and locked in the narrow trading range of the past two weeks until Friday's monthly supply-demand report. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.83 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is January's low crossing at 3.71. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.  



March wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight while extending the September-January trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 5.10 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.08. Second support is Jan.'s low crossing at 5.01 1/4. 



March Kansas City Wheat closed up 1 3/4-cents at 5.10 1/2.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 4.92 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.  



March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.70 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.80. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.61. Second support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 8.91 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 9.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 9.31 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 9.41. First support is January's low crossing at 8.91 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/2.



March soybean meal was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends the September-February- trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 316.50 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 307.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 316.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 323.60. First support is January's low crossing at 309.10. Second support is December's low crossing at 307.10.  



March soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 30.71 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 30.62. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 30.71. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.26. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.76.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $2.93 at $63.05. 



April hogs posted a key reversal up on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at 58.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.62. First support is the 87% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at 59.81. Second support is August's low crossing at 58.2.   



April cattle closed up $0.73 at 127.00. 



April cattle closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 129.48. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the reaction low crossing at 125.48. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.12.   

 

March Feeder cattle closed up $1.70 at $144.23. 



March Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 145.58 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.47. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 147.58. First support is January's low crossing at 141.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher on Monday while extending the trading range for the past two-months. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.72 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the December-January trading range. Closes below December's low crossing at 9.86 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. 



March cocoa closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 20.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.     



March sugar closed higher on Monday. Additional strength on Tuesday would confirm an upside breakout of a small symmetrical triangle thereby signaling a likely resumption of the rally off January's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 11.69 is the next downside target. 



March cotton closed lower on Monday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.34 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.46 is the next upside target. 

Comments
By metmike - Feb. 5, 2019, 10:08 a.m.
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Thanks tallpine!