INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 5, 2019, 4:19 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Wednesday, February 6, 2019 



7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey



                       Composite Idx (previous 388.7)



                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -3.0%)



                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 266.2)



                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.3%)



                       Refinance Idx (previous 1049.9)



                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.5%)



8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs



                       Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (expected +1.7%; previous +2.2%)



                       Unit Labor Costs (expected +1.7%; previous +1.2%)



830 AM ET. November U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services * Release

                    delayed from 8 Jan due to the partial shutdown of the U.S.

                    federal government which ended 25 Jan



                       Trade Balance (USD) (expected -54.6B; previous -55.49B)



                       Exports (USD) (previous 211.05B)



                       Exports, M/M% (previous -0.1%)



                       Imports (USD) (previous 266.53B)



                       Imports, M/M%  (previous +0.2%)



10:00 AM ET. January Online Help Wanted Index



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report



                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 445.944M)



                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.919M)



                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 257.38M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.235M)



                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 141.27M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.122M)



                       Refinery Usage (previous 90.1%)



                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.815M)



                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.645M)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Monday as the index is moving closer to exiting bear-market territory, as investors continued to sort through corporate earnings while awaiting President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address in the evening. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 7169.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6731.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 7169.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7280.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6731.69. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6630.93.  



The March S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2643.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2865.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2643.22. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2613.62.  



The Dow gapped up and closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 25,663.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,500.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 25,422.95. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 25,661.68. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,500.59. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,194.03.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



March T-bonds closed up 15/32's at 145-24.



March T-bonds closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-00 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 148-27 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 146-30. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 142-16.         



March T-notes closed down 050 points at 122-280.



March T-notes closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 120-301 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 123.055 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 122.165. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.055. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 120.071.        



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



March crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of its recent gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 50.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.53. First support is the reaction low crossing at 50.66. Second support is December's low crossing at 45.13.



March heating oil closed lower on Tuesday while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 182.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52. First support is the reaction low crossing at 182.80. Second support is December's low crossing at 162.35. 



March unleaded gas closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 160.10 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 134.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 147.65. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 160.10. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 134.13. Second support is December's low crossing at 124.24. 



March Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 2.565 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.957 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.090. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.406. First support is today's low crossing at 2.639. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.565.     



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 10-day moving average crossing at 95.55 has tempered the near-term bearish outlook. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 94.63 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 96.38. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 97.20. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 93.97.    



The March Euro closed  lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 116.33 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 116.33. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 117.70. First support is January's low crossing at 113.38. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 111.94.      



The March British Pound closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3004 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2852 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off January's low, October's high crossing at 1.3356 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3257. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3356. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2852. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2707.   



The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday and tested support marked by November's low.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 1.0000 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0157 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0157. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0330. First support is November's low crossing at 1.0018. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.0000.



The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.64. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 74.85.  



The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0908 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.0925 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0933. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.0911. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0908.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



April gold closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1303.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1349.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1331.10. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 1349.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1303.40. Second support is January's low crossing at 1281.50.



March silver closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.688 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 16.200. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support is January's low crossing at 15.195. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.178.         



March copper closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally, December's high crossing at 285.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 269.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. First support is the reaction low crossing at 263.45. Second support is January's low crossing at 254.30. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March Corn closed up 1 1/4-cents at 3.80 1/2. 



March corn closed higher on Tuesday while extending the August-January trading range. The corn market has been locked in a narrowing trading range for the past six-weeks as the market awaits Friday's release of January and February's supply-demand data and 2018's final production data. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below January's low crossing at 3.71 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is January's low crossing at 3.71. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.  



March wheat closed up 1 3/4-cents at 5.27 1/2. 



March wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 5.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.46 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.08. Second support is January's low crossing at 5.01 1/4.     



March Kansas City Wheat closed up 3/4-cents at 5.11 1/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed fractionally higher on Tuesday as it continues to form a symmetrical triangle. A breakout in either direction of this consolidation pattern should point the direction of the next possible trending move. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 4.92 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.  



March Minneapolis wheat closed up a 1/4-cent at 5.75. 



March Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 5.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.93. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.61. Second support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2.    



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans closed up 1 3/4-cents at 9.20 1/4.



March soybeans closed higher on Tuesday. Trading is likely to remain subdued ahead of Friday's monthly supply-demand report. This report will combine both January and February's supply-demand report along with final 2018 soybean crop estimates and projected carryout levels. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, December's high crossing at 9.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 9.41. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-September-2018 decline crossing at 9.46 1/2. First support is January's low crossing at 8.91 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/4.  



March soybean meal closed down $1.30 at 309.30. 



March soybean meal closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the August-February trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 307.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 316.50 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 324.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is December's low crossing at 307.10. Second support is November's low crossing at 305.30.  



March soybean oil closed up 26 pts. at 30.39. 



March soybean oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 30.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.27 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 30.62. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 30.71. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.77.    

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed down $1.45 at $61.60. 



April hogs closed lower on Tuesday leaving yesterday's key reversal up unconfirmed. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at 58.22 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.36. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.43. First support is the 87% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at 59.81. Second support is August's low crossing at 58.2.  



April cattle closed up $0.63 at 127.63. 



April cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 129.48. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the reaction low crossing at 125.48. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.23.   

 

March Feeder cattle closed down $0.40 at $143.83. 



March Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 145.58 would temper the bearish outlook. If March extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.47. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 147.58. First support is January's low crossing at 141.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Tuesday while extending the trading range for the past two-months. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.72 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the December-January trading range. Closes below December's low crossing at 9.86 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. 



March cocoa closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 20.95 is the next downside target.      



March sugar closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 11.69 is the next downside target. 



March cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.46 is the next upside target. 

Comments
By metmike - Feb. 5, 2019, 6:16 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!