depending on whether you look at the 40 yr chart or the 15 yr chart...
metals may top out either in early February, or late February. then go down into march. bounce around, maybe up,
then down from may to july.
I want to see gold surge past 1350 to convince me that this long sideway correction is finished.
and for the pm shares, they usually go up from dec to feb, after that it is less likely for the rally to continue.
(all depends on whether we are in a bull cycle or bear cycle).
This article was originally published on Sun Feb 3 for members of ElliottWaveTrader: Extremes are the hallmark of the metals market. And those that handle the extremes best are usually the ones who do best in the metals market.
Looking at the relative strength of gold in light of the firmness of the US$, I have to say gold hasn't looked this good in years. Of course if the dollar continued to move higher it would obviously hurt gold. But all things being equal, I'd rather be long gold.
Gold 3 months:
Gold 1 year below
over the last couple years , precious metals and their shares have still had lower highs.
we need to see higher highs, and higher lows to confirm a bull trend.
we need to see gold go past its 18 high, and 17 high, and 16 high, etc...
is this trend going to be tied to the dollar, or euro, or yen? normally, yes, unless we break from the past.