KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, February 12, 2019  

6:00 AM ET. January NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

                       Small Business Idx (previous 104.4)

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.5%)

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.6%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -2.0%)

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +6.3%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)

10:00 AM ET. December Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.5M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.7M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.1M)

  N/A               FAA UAS Symposium in the U.S.

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  

The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as a round of U.S.-China tariff negotiations in Beijing commenced and as another partial government shutdown looms. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6799.29 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 7169.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7023.35. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 7169.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6799.29. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6647.47.  

The March S&P 500 was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2668.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2736.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2668.78. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2615.77.

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was  lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 148-27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 147-01. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 144-00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 142.16.

March T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 148-27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.109 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.190. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.080. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 120.071.

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

March crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends last-week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 50.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is the the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 51.06. Second support is December's low crossing at 42.67.  

March heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past five-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral signaling that sideways  trading is possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 182.80 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52. First support is the reaction low crossing at 182.80. Second support is December's low crossing at 162.35. 

March unleaded gas was steady to slightly high overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 160.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 134.13 are needed to confirm that the rally off December's low has come to an end. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 148.50. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 153.48. First support is the reaction low crossing at 134.13. Second support is December's low crossing at 124.24. 

March Henry natural gas gapped up and was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.908 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 2.432 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.724. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.908. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.549. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.432.    

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, December's high crossing at 97.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 96.67. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 97.19. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 95.04. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54.    

The March Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight while extending the decline off the late-January high. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 115.56. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 116.33. First support is the overnight low crossing at 113.29. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.    

The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2859 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3039 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.3252. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3356. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2859. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2707.  

The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9902 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0092 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0092. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0147. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.9999. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902. 

The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.09 would open the door for additional weakness near-term.If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18. First support is the reaction low crossing at 74.86. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.30.

The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 0.0904 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 0.0925 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0933. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0910. Second support is the reaction low crossing at  0.0904.

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1307.00 would confirm a top has been posted. If April renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1349.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1331.10. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1349.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1307.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1284.30.  

March silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.699 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 16.200. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 15.635. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.290.  

March copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 285.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.28. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 263.45.  

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

March corn was fractionally lower overnight following last-Friday's slightly bearish USDA supply-demand report for near-term direction. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 3.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.83 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is January's low crossing at 3.71. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.  

March wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 5.10 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.08. Second support is January's low crossing at 5.01 1/4. 

March Kansas City Wheat closed down 2-cents at 4.94 1/4.

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday and below support marked by the bottom of this year's symmetrical triangle crossing near 4.93 1/2. Multiple closes below triangle support would confirm a downside breakout of this consolidation pattern thereby opening the door for a possible test of the reaction low crossing at 4.87 1/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.

March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-Thursday's decline, December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.78 1/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.80. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.61. Second support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2. 

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March soybeans was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 9.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.31 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 9.41. First support is January's low crossing at 8.91 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/2.

March soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at 303.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 310.80 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 316.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 323.60. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 305.10. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.  

March soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 31.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 31.01. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 31.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.00.

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

April hogs closed down $1.18 at $58.42. 

April hogs closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at 58.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.23. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.72. First support is today's low crossing at 58.37. Second support is July's low crossing at 57.80.   

April cattle closed up $1.10 at 127.93. 

April cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 129.48. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.48. Second support is January's low crossing at 123.50.   

March Feeder cattle closed up $0.85 at $144.10. 

March Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 145.58 would temper the bearish outlook. If March renews the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.47. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 147.58. First support is January's low crossing at 141.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.  

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

March coffee closed lower on Friday while extending the trading range for the past two-months. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.72 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the December-January trading range. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 10.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 

March cocoa closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 20.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.52 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.      

March sugar closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 11.69 is the next downside target. 

March cotton closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.06 is the next upside target.