KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, February 12, 2019  

6:00 AM ET. January NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

                       Small Business Idx (previous 104.4)

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.5%)

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.6%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -2.0%)

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +6.3%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)

10:00 AM ET. December Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.5M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.7M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.1M)

  N/A               FAA UAS Symposium in the U.S.

Wednesday, February 13, 2019  

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 378.9)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -2.5%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 253.1)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -4.9%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1053.4)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.3%)

8:30 AM ET. January Real Earnings

8:30 AM ET. January CPI

                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous -0.1%)

                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -3.5%)

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.5%; previous +1.9%)

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.1%; previous +2.2%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 447.207M)

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.263M)

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 257.893M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.513M)

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 139.013M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.257M)

                       Refinery Usage (previous 90.7%)

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.838M)

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.023M)

Thursday, February 14, 2019  

8:30 AM ET. January PPI

                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous -0.2%)

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous -0.1%)

                       Personal Consumption (previous -0.2%)

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

                       Corn (Metric Tons)

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons)

                       Wheat (Metric Tons)

8:30 AM ET. December Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services * Release

                      delayed from 16 Jan due to the partial shutdown of the U.S.

                      federal government which ended 25 January

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.2%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.2%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (expected 222K; previous 234K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -19K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1736000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -42K)

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales * Release delayed

                        from 16 Jan due to the partial shutdown of the U.S. federal

                        government which ended 25 Jan

                       Total Inventories (expected +0.2%; previous +0.6%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1960B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -237B)

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

Friday, February 15, 2019  

8:30 AM ET. January Import & Export Price Indexes

                       Import Prices (expected +0.1%; previous -1.0%)

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.3%)

                       Petroleum Prices (previous -11.6%)

8:30 AM ET. February Empire State Manufacturing Survey

                       Mfg Idx (expected 6.0; previous 3.9)

                       Employment Idx (previous 7.4)

                       New Orders Idx (previous 3.5)

                       Prices Received (previous 13.1)

9:15 AM ET. January Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)

                       Capacity Utilization % (expected 78.8%; previous 78.7%)

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.1)

10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 92.5; previous 90.7)

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 78.3)

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx  (previous 110.0)

4:00 PM ET. December Treasury International Capital Data

  N/A               Deadline for new funding deal to avert another partial U.S.

                    Govt shutdown

  N/A               U.S: Susan B. Anthony Day state holiday in Florida

Monday, February 18, 2019  

  N/A               U.S. Presidents Day / Washington's Birthday. Financial markets closed

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  

The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight after lawmakers reached a deal to prevent a government shutdown and optimism grew over a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 7169.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6819.02 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7023.35. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 7169.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6819.02. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6647.59.  

The March S&P 500 was higher overnight and is poised to renew the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish with overnight gains signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2675.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2736.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2675.67. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2615.14.

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was  lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish with overnight losses signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 148-27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 147-01. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 144-00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 142.16.

March T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish with overnight weakness signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.125 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 148-27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.190. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.080. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 120.071.

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

March crude oil was higher overnight following Monday's high-range close.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength that suggest that a short-term low might be in or is near after testing the lower boundary of the January-February trading range crossing at 50.66. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 50.66 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is the the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 51.11. Second support is December's low crossing at 42.67.  

March heating oil was slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past five-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways  trading is possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 182.80 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the January-February trading range. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52. First support is the reaction low crossing at 182.80. Second support is December's low crossing at 162.35. 

March unleaded gas was higher overnight while extending the January-February trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 160.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 134.13 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 148.50. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 153.48. First support is the reaction low crossing at 134.13. Second support is December's low crossing at 124.24. 

March Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.875 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 2.432 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.876. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.204. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.549. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.432.    

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight signaling a possible pause in the eight-day rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, December's high crossing at 97.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 97.00. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 97.19. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 95.04. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54.    

The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the late-January high. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 115.56. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 116.33. First support is the overnight low crossing at 112.89. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.   

The March British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 1.2707 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3029 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.3252. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3356. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2859. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2707.  

The March Swiss Franc was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9902 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0076 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0076. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0142. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.9940. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902. 

The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.09 would open the door for additional weakness near-term.If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18. First support is the reaction low crossing at 74.86. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.30.

The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 0.0904 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0916 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0933. First support is the reaction low crossing at  0.0904. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0900.

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1308.00 would confirm a top has been posted. If April renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1349.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1331.10. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1349.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1308.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1286.00.  

March silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.703 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 16.200. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 15.635. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.318.  

March copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 285.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.99. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 263.45.  

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

March corn was higher overnight on renewed optimism over trade talks between the US and China. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.83 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 3.71 then November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4 are the next downside targets. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is January's low crossing at 3.71. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.  

March wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 5.10 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.08. Second support is January's low crossing at 5.01 1/4. 

March Kansas City Wheat closed down a 1/2-cent at 4.93 3/4.

March Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Monday and below support marked by the bottom of this year's symmetrical triangle crossing near 4.93 1/2. The recent breakout below the aforementioned support level opens the door for a possible test of November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4. 

March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.78 1/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.80. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.61. Second support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2. 

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's losses on renewed hope of a possible deal in US/China trade negotiations. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 8.91 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.15 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.31 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 9.41. First support is January's low crossing at 8.91 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/2.

March soybean meal was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at 303.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 310.50 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 316.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 323.60. First support is Monday's low crossing at 304.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.  

March soybean oil was mostly steady overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 31.69 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 31.01. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 31.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.82. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.04.

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

April hogs closed up $0.65 at $59.08. 

April hogs posted an upside reversal on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off November's high, July's low crossing at 57.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.82. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.50. First support is today's low crossing at 57.87. Second support is July's low crossing at 57.80.   

April cattle closed up $0.38 at 128.30. 

April cattle closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 129.48. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.60. Second support is January's low crossing at 123.50.   

March Feeder cattle closed up $0.58 at $144.68. 

March Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 145.58 would temper the bearish outlook. If March renews the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.47. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 147.58. First support is January's low crossing at 141.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.