https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/02/13/donald-trump-bob-lighthizer-china-trade-225025

Any news of progress in talks with China, such as delaying the tariff increase set for March 1st, will be a "sell event" for the stock market in my opinion.  I watch the talking heads and money managers on CNBC and Bloomberg and they ALL say a deal will happen.  Usually, the reasoning goes, "it's in everyone's interest", or, "China is hurting economically, so they will make a deal".  That flies in the face that China is playing to win, as well as the fact that it is a one party state.  

And one thing that NO ONE thinks will happen (not priced into the market) is that Trump will go ahead with the increase in tariffs to 25% on March 1st.  I don't think this is likely, but I think it is a 20-25% chance.  It is what Lighthizer wants.  Of all the things coming out of Trump's mouth, this has been a core belief of his for decades.  Balanced against that is Trump watches the stock market and probably doesn't want to cause a shock and wants some kind of deal to declare a "win".

This is one issue where I am with Trump.  Previous administrations of both parties have been proven wrong.  Unfortunately, American consumers have no moral conscience.  They want products at the cheapest price even as their jobs have gone overseas.  That hurts Trump's negotiating hand.