China 29.7 mmt. Getting to that time of the yr.
Export sales were awful in wheat, marketing year low and featured big reductions in beans.
Corn was pretty bad too.
How can anyone go long beans in this environment? It is nothing short of a miracle that we aren't $2 lower.
Jim you have been talking this way for months and beans have virtually been in the same price channel for the same...not hardly a sell signal anywhere and now basis has started to improve
I know! But I believe what I believe. Seasonally at least, beans are a buy this time of year anyway. But if having 600,000 MT of beans pushed back at you isn't an eye opener, I don't know what is. How long has it been since that has happened?! No one ever said commodity trading made sense.
again basis is shrinking...does that mean anything to you?
https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=835834&mid=7321158#M7321158 here is a recent chart and a suggestion of another long position
SAm is harvesting, loading ships. NAm bean bin's still heavy. Xi grain trade leverage goal is complete. NAm bean prices stay flat/down until late J imho.
Farmer take note: good weather planting conditions are bearish on price, conversely bad planting weather is good for price but bad for some planters. Same as ever was. The only other variable is USD$
hi becker...yes its all true. everything you said....and basis is narrowing and price is set to jump technically so how do you bet if you are a trader or producer
Mc Farm
https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=835834&mid=7321158#M7321158
That is the bullish Chart view, but..
an alternate view is the Triangle that puts the support line at 9.48 nov. a break here and we could find 8.75.
current price is sitting just above
JMHO
I've been short oom H puts since xmas. Expiry is next Fri. Being short futures with the trade deal talks ongoing was not happening. That may be why beans are still bouyant. I want to see what happens after Mar 1st if trade deal gets extensioned. Maybe then roll into oom short K puts.
As a speculator I want a sharp dip to buy N tickets and then some very abnormal weather. Tinker with some option as things unfold. You remember 2012; $20/bu.
looks like Jim going to get paid
Export inspections this morning. Not too bad for beans. Not very good for wheat.
somewhere near 892 should hold...great place to buy
Did buy ZS today. This is transition time from ES to planting weather. Weather scare mongers be our friend.
nice call on the 8.92 support mcfarm
sounds crazy but we get a 927 close and 972 is next stop and maybe high for the move and year unless mother nature says otherwise