KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Friday, February 15, 2019 

8:30 AM ET. January Import & Export Price Indexes

                       Import Prices (expected +0.1%; previous -1.0%)

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.3%)

                       Petroleum Prices (previous -11.6%)

8:30 AM ET. February Empire State Manufacturing Survey

                       Mfg Idx (expected 6.0; previous 3.9)

                       Employment Idx (previous 7.4)

                       New Orders Idx (previous 3.5)

                       Prices Received (previous 13.1)

9:15 AM ET. January Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)

                       Capacity Utilization % (expected 78.8%; previous 78.7%)

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.1)

10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 92.5; previous 90.7)

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 78.3)

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx  (previous 110.0)

4:00 PM ET. December Treasury International Capital Data

  N/A              Deadline for new funding deal to avert another partial U.S.

                    Govt shutdown

  N/A              U.S: Susan B. Anthony Day state holiday in Florida

Monday, February 18, 2019 

  N/A              U.S. Presidents Day / Washington's Birthday. Financial markets closed

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""

The March NASDAQ 100 closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 7169.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6856.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 7169.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7280.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6856.71. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6648.18.  

The March S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2690.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2865.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2690.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2614.35.  

The Dow closed lower on Thursday but well off session lows. Today's setback was triggered by weak retail sales numbers and rising jobless claims that had deflated optimism over U.S.-China trade talks and a new deal to avoid a government shutdown. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 25,980.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,969.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 25,661.68. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 25,980.21. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,969.57. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,250.91.

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March T-bonds closed up 27/32's at 146-19.

March T-bonds closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 147-01 would renew the rally off January's low while opening the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at 148-27. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 145-03 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 147-01. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 142-16.         

March T-notes closed up 140 points at 122.060.

March T-notes closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 122.190 would renew the rally off January's low while opening the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at 123.055. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.154 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.190. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.055. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 120.071.        

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March crude oil closed higher on Thursday while extending the January-February trading range.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 50.66 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.53. First support is the reaction low crossing at 50.66. Second support is December's low crossing at 45.13.

March heating oil closed higher on Thursday marking an upside breakout above the January-February trading range resistance crossing at 193.86. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 190.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 197.68. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52. First support is the reaction low crossing at 182.80. Second support is December's low crossing at 162.35. 

March unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday marking an upside breakout the trading range of the past five-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 160.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 140.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 160.10. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 171.22. First support is the reaction low crossing at 134.13. Second support is December's low crossing at 124.24. 

March Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 2.432 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.815 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.815. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.090. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.549. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.432.     

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The March Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off the late-January low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 97.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is today's high crossing at 97.12. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 97.20. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 93.97.    

The March Euro closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 115.57. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 116.33. First support is today's low crossing at 112.76. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 111.94.      

The March British Pound closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2861 opens the door for a possible test of the reaction low crossing at 1.2707. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3024 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.3252. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3356. First support is today's low crossing at 1.2791. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2707.   

The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 0.9902 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0056 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0056. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0136. First support is today's low crossing at 0.9930. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902.

The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 74.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.08. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 74.85.  

The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0900 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0914 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0933. First support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0892.  

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April gold closed slightly higher on Thursday leaving yesterday's key reversal down unconfirmed. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1309.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1349.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1331.10. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 1349.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1309.30. Second support is January's low crossing at 1281.50.

March silver closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.364 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 16.200. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.364. Second support is January's low crossing at 15.195.          

March copper closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 275.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally, September's high crossing at 288.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 275.18. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 263.45. 

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March Corn closed down 4-cents at 3.74 1/2. 

March corn closed lower on Thursday on some technical selling partially spurred by spillover weakness from soybeans and wheat. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at 3.71 an then November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4 are the next downside targets. Closes above January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is January's low crossing at 3.71. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.  

March wheat closed down 15-cents at 5.07 1/4. 

March wheat closed sharply lower on Thursday after a dismal round of export data from USDA this morning triggered technical selling. Wheat export sales hit a marketing-year low, falling 76% below the prior four-week average after posting net sales of 4.8 million bushels for the week ending January 3. Analysts had provided more bullish estimates that ranged between 7.3 million and 18.4 million bushels.Wheat export shipments of 10.7 million bushels were also pointed downward, falling 33% lower than the prior week’s tally and 44% below the prior four-week average. The Philippines came in as the No. 1 destination, with 3.0 million bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline January's low crossing at 5.01 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 5.24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 5.31 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 5.06. Second support is January's low crossing at 5.01 1/4.     

March Kansas City Wheat closed down 12 1/2-cents at 4.81 1/2.

March Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extended this month's decline. Today's close below November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4 opens the door for additional weakness and a possible test of weekly support crossing at 4.69 1/2. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.03 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 4.81 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.69 1/2.  

March Minneapolis wheat closed down 5-cents at 5.74 3/4. 

March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 5.63 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has likely been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.93. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.63 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2.    

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March soybeans closed down 10 3/4-cents at 9.05 3/4.

March soybeans closed lower on Thursday after a dismal round of export data from USDA this morning triggered technical selling.Soybean export sales for the week ending January 3 hit a marketing-year low after total net reductions from China and unknown destinations outweighed gains from elsewhere across the world, leaving a total deficit of 22.5 million bushels for the week. Soybean export shipments fared much better after reaching 33.4 million bushels but remained 1% below the prior week’s total and 8% below the prior four-week average. China was the top destination, with 4.9 million bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 8.91 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 9.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 9.31 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 9.41. First support is January's low crossing at 8.91 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/4.  

March soybean meal closed down $4.10 at 306.00. 

March soybean meal closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 310.40 would temper the bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at 303.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 317.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 324.60. First support is Monday's low crossing at 304.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.  

March soybean oil closed down 7 pts. at 29.92. 

March soybean oil closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.00 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 31.69 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 31.01. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 31.69. First support is today's low crossing at 29.81. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.10.    

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April hogs closed down $1.07 at $58.70. 

April hogs closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off November's high, July's low crossing at 57.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.82. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 65.77. First support is Monday's low crossing at 57.87. Second support is July's low crossing at 57.80.   

April cattle closed up $0.40 at 127.38. 

April cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 129.48. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.94. Second support is January's low crossing at 123.50.   

March Feeder cattle closed up $0.55 at $144.08. 

March Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 145.58 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.47. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 147.58. First support is January's low crossing at 141.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.  

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March coffee closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 95.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.32 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

March cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 20.95 is the next downside target.       

March sugar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 11.69 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target.  

March cotton closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 66.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.