KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, February 22, 2019
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons)
Soybeans (Metric Tons)
Wheat (Metric Tons)
Monday, February 25, 2019
8:30 AM ET. January CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.27)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.16)
10:00 AM ET. December Monthly Wholesale Trade * Release delayed from 8 Feb due to
the partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government which ended 25 January
Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
10:30 AM ET. February Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 1.0)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 14.5)
N/A Trump departs en route for Vietnam for second meeting with
Kim Jong Un
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6943.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 7169.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 7169.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7280.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6943.71. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6675.89.
The March S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2865.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2723.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2865.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2723.86. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2624.06.
The Dow closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 26,271.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,242.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 25,980.21. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 26,271.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,242.37. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,317.29.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
March T-bonds closed down 26/32's at 145-25.
March T-bonds closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 145-14 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 147-05 would open the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at 148-27. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 147-05. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 142-16.
March T-notes closed down 85 points at 121.285.
March T-notes closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.201 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 122.190 would renew the rally off January's low while opening the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at 123.055. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.190. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.055. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 120.071.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.51. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.44. First support is the reaction low crossing at 51.62. Second support is December's low crossing at 43.00.
April heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 192.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 202.41. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 192.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 184.21.
April unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the November 16th reaction high crossing at 182.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 164.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 177.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.48. First support is the reaction low crossing at 155.13. Second support is December's low crossing at 142.54.
April Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.700 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off January's high, the May 2018 low crossing at 2.523 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.768. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.889. First support is February's low crossing at 2.565. Second support is the May 2018 low crossing at 2.523.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.12 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If March resumes the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 97.23. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.12. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.02.
The March Euro closed slightly lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.44 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.44. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 115.57. First support is February's low crossing at 112.61. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound closed slightly lower on Thursday but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3019 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, January's high crossing at 1.3252 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 1.2707 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.3252. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3356. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2791. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2707.
The March Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0031 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 0.9902 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0031. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0120. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.9930. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, January's high crossing at 76.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.14 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.14. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 74.85.
The March Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0900 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0911 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0933. First support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0892.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
April gold closed lower due to light profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1320.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 1376.20. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 1349.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 1376.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1320.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1297.00.
May silver closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.355 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.580 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 16.295. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.355. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.580. Second support is January's low crossing at 15.280.
May copper posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends the rally, the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 280.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 287.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 280.63. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 273.03.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed up 4 1/4-cents at 3.83 3/4.
May corn closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.86 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 3.75 is the next downside targets. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.92 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.95. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.77. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.75.
May wheat closed up 7 1/4-cents at 4.91 1/2.
May wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 4.66 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 5.24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 5.24. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 5.31 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.75 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.66 3/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 5 1/4-cents at 4.63 1/4.
May Kansas City wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. If May extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 4.56 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.01 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.86 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.01. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.57 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.56 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed up 9 1/2-cents at 5.57 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.77 1/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 5.83 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.93 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5.48. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed up 7 3/4-cents at 9.23 3/4.
May soybeans closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 9.34 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 9.04 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 9.45. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 9.53. First support is January's low crossing at 9.04 3/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.93 1/2.
May soybean meal closed up $0.70 at 309.90.
May soybean meal closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at 303.70 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 312.90 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 321.30. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 327.90. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 306.60. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.70.
May soybean oil closed up 57 pts. at 30.85.
May soybean oil closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 30.56 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 32.02 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 29.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 31.32. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 32.02. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 29.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.47.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $2.98 at $55.95.
April hogs closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 51.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.98. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 63.33. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 52.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 51.27.
April cattle closed down $0.60 at 128.60.
April cattle closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 129.60. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.33. Second support is January's low crossing at 123.50.
April Feeder cattle closed down $0.55 at $145.52.
April Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends last-Friday's decline, February's low crossing at 142.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 146.88 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.88. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 147.83. First support is January's low crossing at 142.63. Second support is December's low crossing at 141.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 95.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.51 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off January's low, the December high crossing at 24.64 is the next upside target.
May sugar posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, October's high crossing at 14.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May cotton closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.74 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 68.36 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!