KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, February 28, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Week En U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 6085.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 6910.3K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 3818.9K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 221K; previous 216K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -23K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1725000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -55K)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Initial GDP * This 'initial' report takes the place of two
previously scheduled estimates of Q4 GDP - the advance estimate
originally set for 30 Jan and the second estimate that would normally
be released 28 Feb - following the partial shutdown of the U.S
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +2.2%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.9%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous 0.9%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q%
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q%
Real Final Sales, Q/Q%
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q%
Consumer Spending, Q/Q%
9:45 AM ET. February ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 56.8; previous 56.7)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. Housing Vacancies * Release delayed from 29 Jan due to
the partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government which ended 25 Jan.
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1705B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -177B)
11:00 AM ET. February Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 2)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 33)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 18)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 18)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
3:00 PM ET. January Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +1.8%)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7280.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7019.19 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 7169.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7280.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7017.19. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6708.03.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 2823.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2751.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is November's high crossing at 2823.20. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2865.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2751.62. Second support is February's low crossing at 2683.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as they extend this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 144-29 would confirm a downside breakout of February's trading range. If March resumes the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 148-27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 147-01. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 144-00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 142.16.
March T-notes was slightly higher overnight as it extends February's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 148-27 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 121.190 would confirm a downside breakout of February's trading range. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.190. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.080. First support is the reaction low crossing at 121.190. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.301.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 58.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 57.81. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.19. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 52.20.
April heating oil was slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 223.08. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.47. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 185.59.
April unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 182.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 167.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 177.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 167.98. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161.35.
April Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 2.872 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.698 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 2.872. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 2.938. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.698. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.565.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 95.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.32 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 97.12. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 95.58. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 95.06
The March Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.42 would open the door for a larger-degree rally off February's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 113.36 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.42. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 115.57. First support is February's low crossing at 112.76. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, September's high crossing at 1.3384 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3043 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3384. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3539. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3103. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2935.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0017 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9902 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0017. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0111. First support is February's low crossing at 0.9930. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902.
The March Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.23 would renew the decline off January's high. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.23. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 74.86.
The March Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 75% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0900. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0908 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0892 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0908. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0925. First support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0892.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight due to weakness in the US Dollar. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1302.90 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1376.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1349.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1376.20. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1304.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1302.90.
May silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some its recent losses. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.666 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.355 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 16.295. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.355. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.666. Second support is February's low crossing at 15.545.
May copper was lower overnight as it consolidates below resistance marked by the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 285.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 285.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 274.79.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline.The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.71 3/4 is the next downside target.Closes above Monday's high crossing at 3.87 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.92 1/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.71 3/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.67 3/4.
May wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.43 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.04 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.84 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.04 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.63 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.43 1/2.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 1 1/4-cents at 4.45 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. If May extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.87 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.66 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.87 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.40 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.73. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 5.81 1/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 5.48. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were lower overnight as they extend this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 9.04 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 9.34 1/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 9.45. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 9.53. First support is January's low crossing at 9.04 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.93 1/2.
May soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at 303.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 314.70 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 314.70. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 321.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 306.10. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.70.
May soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.58 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off last-Wednesday's low, February's high crossing at 31.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 31.32. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 32.02. First support is the reaction low crossing at 29.26. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.58.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.13 at $55.60.
April hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.48 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 51.27 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.48. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 61.33. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 52.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 51.27.
April cattle closed unchanged at 129.93.
April cattle closed unchanged on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stagefor a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 130.10. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.74. Second support is February's low crossing at 125.75.
April Feeder cattle closed up $0.45 at $147.23.
April Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the reaction high crossing at 146.88 has renewed the rally off January's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 144.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 147.83. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 150.20. First support is January's low crossing at 142.63. Second support is December's low crossing at 141.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 95.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.33 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off January's low, the December high crossing at 24.64 is the next upside target. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 22.03 is the next downside target.
May sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends this month's rally, October's high crossing at 14.29 is the next upside target.
May cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 68.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.29 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks very much tallpine!