KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Friday, March 1, 2019 

8:30 AM ET. Dec/Jan  Personal Income & Outlays * BEA releases a single report that

                      will include personal income and outlays for December 2018,

                      as well as personal income for January 2019, following the

                      partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government which ended 25 January

                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.2%)

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (Dec) (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (Dec) (previous +0.1%)

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (Dec) (previous +1.8%)

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (Dec) (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (Dec) (previous +1.9%)

                       Personal Income, M/M% (Jan) (previous +0.2%)

9:45 AM ET. February US Manufacturing PMI

                       PMI, Mfg (expected 54.0; previous 54.9)

10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 95.8; previous 91.2)

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 79.9)

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.6%)

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 108.8)

10:00 AM ET. February ISM Manufacturing Report on Business

                       Manufacturing PMI (expected 55.6; previous 56.6)

                       Prices Idx (previous 49.6)

                       Employment Idx (previous 55.5)

                       Inventories (previous 52.8)

                       New Orders Idx (previous 58.2)

                       Production Idx (previous 60.5)

11:00 AM ET. February Global Manufacturing PMI

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 50.7)

4:00 PM ET. February Domestic Auto Industry Sales

                       Auto Sales Annualized (expected 16.8M; previous 16.7M)

  N/A              DELAYED: Deadline for success in U.S.-China trade talks in

                        order to avoid new tariffs

  N/A              Suspension of U.S. federal debt limit expires

  N/A              ABAC APEC Business Advisory Council Meeting

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""

The March NASDAQ 100 closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 7280.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7018.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 7169.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7280.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7018.45. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6708.55.  

The March S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2865.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2751.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2813.20. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2865.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2751.77. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2636.87.  

The Dow closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 26,282.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,577.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 26,282.97. Second resistance is the October 2018 high crossing at 26,951.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,577.78. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 24,883.04.

INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""

March T-bonds closed down 14/32's at 145-04.

March T-bonds closed lower on Thursday as they extend this month's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 144-29 would confirm a downside breakout of February's trading range. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 147-05 would open the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at 148-27. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 147-05. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 142-16.         

March T-notes closed down 70 points at 121.225.

March T-notes closed lower on Thursday as it extends February's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 121.190 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 122.190 would renew the rally off January's low while opening the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at 123.055. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.190. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.055. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 120.071.        

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

April crude oil closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.51. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.44. First support is the reaction low crossing at 51.62. Second support is December's low crossing at 43.00.

April heating oil closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 202.41. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.56. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 185.63. 

April unleaded gas closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 168.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 177.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 168.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161.36.

April Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the November-February decline crossing at 2.872 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.697 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.849. Second resistance isthe 62% retracement level of the November-February decline crossing at 2.872. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.589. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.565.       

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The March Dollar closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 95.58 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 96.65 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 97.23. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 95.58.Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 95.06.    

The March Euro closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.41. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 115.57. First support is February's low crossing at 112.61. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 111.94.      

The March British Pound posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3529 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3041 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3364. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3529. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3041. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2934.   

The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0015 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0110 is the next upside target. If March resumes this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 0.9902 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0110. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0142. First support is February's low crossing at 0.9930. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902.

The March Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 76.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.23. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 74.85.  

The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday and below the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0900 as it extended the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0892 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0908 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0933. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0892. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0886.  

PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""

April gold closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1302.70 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 1376.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 1349.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 1376.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1302.70. Second support is January's low crossing at 1281.50.

May silver closed lower on Thursday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.662 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 15.280 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.355 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 16.295. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.355. First support is February's low crossing at 15.545. Second support is January's low crossing at 15.280.          

May copper closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends the rally, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 285.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 285.55. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 274.77. 

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

May Corn closed down 3 1/2-cents at 3.70 1/4. 

May corn closed lower for the fourth day in a row on Thursday due to another round of technical selling. Two large export sales reported this morning stemmed session losses. Corn exports last week tallied 48.8 million bushels in old crop sales plus another 4.7 million bushels in new crop sales for a total of 53.6 million bushels, which surpassed the average trade guess that ranged between 27.6 million and 51.2 million bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.67 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 3.87 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.92 1/4. First support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.67 3/4. Second support is Sept's low crossing at 3.63 1/4.  

May wheat closed down 8-cents at 4.58 3/4. 

May wheat closed lower on Thursday as Tough global competition and large stockpiles continue to pressure prices for the time being. Wheat export sales found 17.5 million bushels in old crop sales plus another 2.2 million bushels in new crop sales for a total of 19.7 million bushels, which was on the high end of trade guesses that ranged between 7.3 million and 22.0 million bushels. Wheat export shipments were for 24.5 million bushels and are headed for Yemen, the Philippines, Nigeria, Taiwan and Iraq. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's  decline, weekly support crossing at 4.43 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.03 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.83 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.03 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 4.57 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.43 1/2.     

May Kansas City Wheat closed down 1-cent at 4.44 1/2.

May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.84 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.61 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.84 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.40 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.  

May Minneapolis wheat closed up 5 1/4-cents at 5.59 1/4. 

May Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.77 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 5.83 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.93 3/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 5.48. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2.    

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

May soybeans closed down 6 3/4-cents at 9.10.

May soybeans closed lower on Thursday due to a the lack of details surrounding the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, although Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters yesterday that “we have made a lot of progress” and similarly vague platitudes. U.S. soybean exports for the week ending February 21 totaled 80.7 million bushels, and China accounted for 82% of those sales, with 66.7 million bushels. Analysts were expecting the agency to show much more modest soybean sales between 18.4 million and 36.7 million bushels last week. Soybean export shipments last week reached 83.4 million bushels. China was again the No. 1 destination, with 50.8 million bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 9.04 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 9.34 1/2 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 9.45. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 9.53. First support is January's low crossing at 9.04 3/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.93 1/2.  

May soybean meal closed down $3.10 at 306.10. 

May soybean meal closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at 303.70 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 310.90 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 314.70. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 321.30. First support is today's low crossing at 305.70. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.70.  

May soybean oil closed up 12 pts. at 30.24. 

May soybean oil closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 29.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 32.02 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 31.32. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 32.02. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 29.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.58.    

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

April hogs closed up $0.28 at $55.88. 

April hogs closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.17 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 51.27 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.17. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 61.33. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 52.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 51.27.   

April cattle closed down $0.08 at 129.85. 

April cattle closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 130.10. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.84. Second support is February's low crossing at 125.75.   

April Feeder cattle closed down $1.08 at $146.15. 

April Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 147.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 144.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 147.83. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 150.20. First support is January's low crossing at 142.63. Second support is December's low crossing at 141.30.  

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

May coffee closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 95.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.30 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

May cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 22.03 is the next downside target. If May resumes the rally off January's low, the December high crossing at 24.64 is the next upside target.         

May sugar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, October's high crossing at 14.29 is the next upside target.   

May cotton closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 68.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.