INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - March 4, 2019, 7:27 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, March 4, 2019  

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. February ISM-NY Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Business Index (previous 63.4)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place * Release

 

                        delayed from 1 Feb due to the partial shutdown of the U.S. federal  

 

                        government which ended 25 January.

 

                       New Construction

 



 

 

                       Residential Construction

 



 

 

Tuesday, March 5, 2019  

 



 

 

7:30 AM ET. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren

 

                      addresses the National Association of Corporate Directors'

 

                      New England Chapter

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.6%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +1.1%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.4%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.1%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.2%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. February US Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 54.2)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December New Residential Sales * Release delayed from 25 Jan due to

 

                       the partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government which ended 25 Jan.

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales (previous 580K)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +6.6%)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

 



 

 

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 50.3)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 44.5)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 56.7)

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 59.7)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 59.4)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 57.8)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 57.7)

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. February Global Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services   (previous 52.6)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET.  API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.2M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.8M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.4M)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight on reports that a trade deal between the U.S. and China will soon take place. March is starting out on a positive note and is usually the second strongest month of the year. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7280.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7044.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 7206.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7280.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7044.74. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6736.22.  



The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 2823.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2761.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is November's high crossing at 2823.20. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2865.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2761.96. Second support is February's low crossing at 2683.00.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate some of last week's losses. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If March extends last week's losses, the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 144-00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 146-00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 147-05. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 144-00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 142.16.



March T-notes was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.301 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.314 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.190. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.080. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.071.



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



April crude oil was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 58.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 57.81. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.33. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 52.51.  



April heating oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 223.08. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.71. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 186.66.



April unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 182.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 169.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 177.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 169.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 162.01. 



April Henry natural gas was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 2.938 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.709 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 2.872. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 2.938. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.773. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.709.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.42 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 95.58 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 97.12. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 95.58. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 95.06.



The March Euro was lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 113.36 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.37 would open the door for a larger-degree rally off February's low. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.36. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 115.57. First support is February's low crossing at 112.76. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.    



The March British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3049 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off February's low, September's high crossing at 1.3384 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3384. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3539. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3049. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2955.  



The March Swiss Franc was lower lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9902 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0104 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0104. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0142. First support is February's low crossing at 0.9930. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902. 



The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends last-Friday's huge decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.25 would renew the decline off January's high.If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 74.86.



The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0892 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0906 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0906. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0925. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0892. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0885.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1273.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1322.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1322.10. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1349.80. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1291.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1273.20.



May silver was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.935 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.797 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 16.295. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.355. First support is the overnight low crossing at 15.145. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.935. 



May copper was lower overnight hinting that the rally off January's low has come to an end. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 286.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 286.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 275.62.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was higher overnight following last Friday's upside reversal hinting that last week's sell off might have finally come to an end. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at 3.63 1/4 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.77 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.81. First support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.67 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.63 1/4.  



May wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 4.43 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.97 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.73 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.97. First support is psychological support crossing at 4.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.43 1/2.



May Kansas City Wheat closed up 1/4-cents at 4.44 3/4.

 

May Kansas City wheat closed fractionally higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.81 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.56 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.81 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at 4.32 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.  



May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the consolidation pattern of the past two weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.73. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 5.81 1/4. First support is February's low crossing at 5.48. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans were higher overnight as they consolidates some of last week's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 9.34 1/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May renews the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 8.93 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.34 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 9.45. First support is January's low crossing at 9.04 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.93 1/2.



May soybean meal was higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 314.70 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May extends the decline off January's high, psychological support crossing at 300.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 314.70. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 321.30. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 302.80. Second support is psychological support crossing at 300.00.  



May soybean oil was higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off February's low, February's high crossing at 31.32 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 31.32. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 32.02. First support is the reaction low crossing at 29.26. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.64.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $0.53 at $56.40. 



April hogs closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 51.27 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.98. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 61.33. First support is February's low crossing at 52.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 51.27.   



April cattle closed down $0.30 at 129.55. 



April cattle closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 130.45. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.96. Second support is February's low crossing at 125.75.   

 

April Feeder cattle closed down $1.10 at $146.05. 



April Feeder cattle posted a key reversal down on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 144.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 147.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 147.83. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 150.20. First support is January's low crossing at 142.63. Second support is December's low crossing at 141.30.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.26 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 95.10 is the next downside target. 



May cocoa closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 22.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.17 would confirm that a low has been posted.         



May sugar closed lower on Friday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.75 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off February's low, October's high crossing at 14.29 is the next upside target.   



May cotton closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.01 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 68.36 is the next downside target.  

Comments
By metmike - March 4, 2019, 10:04 a.m.
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Thanks tallpine!