GDP now forecast - way down - wow
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Started by bear - March 5, 2019, 4:42 p.m.

wow,  look at that estimate way below the bue chip consensus .  

of course it is hard to say,... how much of this drop is due to winter,...  

how much is due to tax law change (shifting money from 2019 to 2018)...

how much is due to the ACA  (i've long maintained that the big drop in 1st Qrt each year is from the ACA)...

how much is due to the slowdown in europe...

how much is due to the govt shutdown...

how much is due to trade issues not being resolved yet... 

By TimNew - March 6, 2019, 4:56 a.m.
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Many of the components of the GDP are generated/compiled by government agencies and I suspect a lot of these measures were under reported during the shut down. If so,  we'll see upward revisions going forward. Retail, for example, was reported as low for the holiday season in spite of many/most retailers reporting record sales or at least very positive results.

By 7475 - March 6, 2019, 6:42 a.m.
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Thanks bear

 I havent got a handle yet on this organization.First time ive heard of it.

Appears to be manned by some smart dudes. Im not understanding if their relationship to "FEDS",but Im not savvy 

in these areas so Ill be reading any commentary following.


By cliff-e - March 6, 2019, 8:56 a.m.
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"How much is due..." etc. etc.?

All of the above plus more.