KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, March 7, 2019
7:30 AM ET. February Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +20.7%)
8:30 AM ET. Week En U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1360.4K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2196.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 537.4K)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity (expected +1.6%; previous +2.3%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +1.7%; previous +0.9%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 221K; previous 225K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +8K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1805000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +79K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1539B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -166B)
12:00 PM ET. February Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
3:00 PM ET. January Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +16.25B; previous +16.55B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, March 8, 2019
8:30 AM ET. February U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +180K; previous +304K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.9%; previous 4.0%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.56)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.03)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.11%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous 2.2%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +8K)
Private Payroll (previous +296K)
Participation Rate (previous 63.2%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg (previous -1K)
8:30 AM ET. January New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.18M; previous 1.078M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected +9.5%; previous -11.2%)
Building Permits (expected 1.29M; previous 1.326M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected -2.7%; previous +0.3%)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower for a third session of losses on Wednesday on tepid U.S. data while the market shrugged off China’s latest round of stimulus measures as investors awaited further developments in trade talks between Washington and Beijing. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If June extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 7292.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7085.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 7169.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7280.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7085.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6792.64.
The June S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2771.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2810.20. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2771.97. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2651.56.
The Dow closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,706.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 26,282.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 26,282.97. Second resistance is the October 2018 high crossing at 26,951.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,706.39. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 24,883.04.
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June T-bonds closed up 19/32's at 145-00.
June T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-12 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 143-10 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 146-17. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 147-31. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 143-10. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 141-27.
June T-notes closed up 110-pts. at 122.070.
June T-notes closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.086 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 121.063 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.280. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.175. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 121.063. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 120.150.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.51 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.51. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.44. First support is the reaction low crossing at 51.62. Second support is December's low crossing at 43.00.
April heating oil closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 197.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 202.41. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 197.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 187.75.
April unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday and is renewing the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 170.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 177.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 170.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 162.96.
April Henry natural gas posted a key reversal down on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-February decline crossing at 2.938 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.729 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.896. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-February decline crossing at 2.938. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.732. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.589.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The June Dollar closed higher for the sixth-day in a row on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, February's high crossing at 96.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.49 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 96.69. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 38% retracement level of the July-February-rally crossing at 95.04.Second support is the 50% retracement level of the July-February-rally crossing at 94.52.
The June Euro closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.20. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 116.46. First support is February's low crossing at 113.49. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.62.
The June British Pound closed lower for the fifth-day in a row on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3125 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3603 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1.3422. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3603. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3125. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3033.
The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 0.9902 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0185 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0185. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0223. First support is February's low crossing at 1.0019. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902.
The June Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 74.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.70 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.46. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 76.75. First support is today's low crossing at 74.48. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above the 85% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0900. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 0.0893 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0911 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0915. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0922. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0893.
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April gold closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 1281.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1315.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1315.70. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1349.80.First support is January's low crossing at 1281.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at 1273.20.
May silver closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.935 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.709 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.573. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.709. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.935. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.644.
May copper closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 287.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 287.96. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 276.60.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed down 4-cents at 3.71 3/4.
May corn closed lower on Wednesday on technical selling as the market awaits the release of March's WASDE grain report for any fresh news to trade off of. Lack of buying interest is also attributed to traders remaining on the sidelines until they see a signed trade deal between the U.S. and China. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.79 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off November's high, September's low crossing at 3.63 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.76 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.79 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3.66. Second support is last-September's low crossing at 3.63 1/4.
May wheat closed down 13-cents at 4.49 3/4.
May wheat closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.43 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.89 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.67 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.89 3/4. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.47 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.43 1/2.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down 12 3/4-cents at 4.38 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat posted a new low close for the year on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.70 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.49. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.70 1/4. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.32 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down 2 1/2-cents at 5.53.
May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the consolidation pattern of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.73 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 5.83 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.93 3/4. First support is February's low crossing at 5.48. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed down 11 3/4-cents at 9.02.
May soybeans posted a new low close for the year on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 8.93 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 9.24 3/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.34 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 9.45. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 9.00 1/2. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.93 1/2.
May soybean meal closed down $4.10 at 305.90.
May soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off January's high, psychological support crossing at 300.0 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 314.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 314.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 321.30. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 302.80. Second support is psychological support crossing at 300.00.
May soybean oil closed down 24 pts. at 29.78.
May soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday and has renewed the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below February's low crossing at 29.94 would open the door for a possible test of the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 59.51. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.46 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 31.16. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 31.32. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 29.51. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 29.08.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.83 at $57.08.
April hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. If April extends the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 61.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.12 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 61.32. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.08. First support is February's low crossing at 52.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 51.27.
April cattle closed up $0.07 at 128.90.
April cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 130.45. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.20. Second support is February's low crossing at 125.75.
April Feeder cattle closed down $0.75 at $143.65.
April Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extended losses off last Friday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 142.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 145.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 147.33. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 147.83. First support is January's low crossing at 142.63. Second support is December's low crossing at 141.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.12 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 95.10 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed sharply higher due to technical short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength, that would signal a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.10 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 21.12 is the next downside target.
May sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 11.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.78 would confirm that a low has been posted.
May cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 76.14 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 68.36 is the next downside target.
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