KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, March 13, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 375.3)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -2.5%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 240.5)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1110.9)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.0%)
8:30 AM ET. February PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Personal Consumption (previous -0.1%)
8:30 AM ET. January Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.8%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.7%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales * Release delayed from 20
Feb due to the partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government which ended 25 Jan.
10:00 AM ET. January Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous -0.6%)
Residential Construction
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 452.934M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +7.069M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 250.714M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.227M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 135.986M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.393M)
Refinery Usage (previous 87.5%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.49M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.98M)
Thursday, March 14, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Week En U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1250.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 383.4K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 826.8K)
8:30 AM ET. February Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous -0.5%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.7%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -0.1%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 223K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -3K)
Continuing Claims (previous 755,000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -50K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. January New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 621K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +3.7%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 6.6)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1390B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -149B)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
N/A World Bank president nomination deadline
N/A U.S. National Food Policy Conference
Friday, March 15, 2019
8:30 AM ET. March Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 8.8)
Employment Idx (previous 4.1)
New Orders Idx (previous 7.5)
Prices Received (previous 22.9)
9:15 AM ET. February Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous 0.6%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 78.2%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.6)
10:00 AM ET. March University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 95.5)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 86.2)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 110.0)
10:00 AM ET. January Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. January Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
4:00 PM ET. January Treasury International Capital Data
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7292.15 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 6965.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 6888.97. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 7250.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7292.15. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 6965.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average low crossing at 6888.97.
The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 2728.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 2696.56.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2805.73. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2728.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2696.56.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-week's low. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 145-05 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If June extends the rally off last week's low, January's high crossing at 147-31 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 146-17. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 147-31. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 143-10. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 141.27.
June T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 123.175 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.074 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 122.310. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.175. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121.063. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.150.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was higher overnight while extending the trading range for the past four-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 58.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 53.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 57.88. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.51. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 54.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 53.98.
April heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 194.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 223.08. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 194.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 191.01.
April unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 175.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.70. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 199.62. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 175.76. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 166.27.
April Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.771 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 2.856 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 2.896. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 2.938. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.771. Second support is the Feb. 27th reaction low crossing at 2.732.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 97.16. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.13. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.59.
The June Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Thursday's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.17 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off the late-February high, the April-10th-2017 low crossing at 111.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.17. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.97. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 112.62. Second support is the April-10th-2017 low crossing at 111.05.
The June British Pound was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength that would signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3211 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional strength near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3071 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at 1.2854. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3211. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.3422. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3071. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.
The June Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the late-February high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0066 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If June extends the decline off the late-February high, weekly support crossing at 0.9902 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0066. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0159. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.9970. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902.
The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next likely downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.50. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 76.46. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 74.43. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen was mostly steady in quiet trading overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0907 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If June resumes the decline off January's high, last-November's low crossing at 0.0893 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0907. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0922. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 0.0893.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Thursday's low crossing at 1280.80. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1311.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1273.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1311.80. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1349.80. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1280.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1273.20.
May silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.589 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.935 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.589. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.705. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 14.985. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.935.
May copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength that would signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 287.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 287.46. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 278.94.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was lower overnight despite Tuesday's short covering bounce. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Both daily and weekly Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 3.55 1/4 is the next downside target.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.74 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.68 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.74 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.61. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.55 1/4.
May wheat was lower overnight following Tuesday's huge short covering bounce.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.69 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 4.19 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.48 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.69 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.27. Second support is long-term support crossing at 4.19 1/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 22 1/2-cents at 4.42 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional gains near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.55 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.55 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.89 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 4.18 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.66 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.66 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 5.81 1/4. First support is weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the November 26th reaction low crossing at 8.84 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.12 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.03. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.12. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 8.87 3/4. Second support is the November-26th low crossing at 8.84 3/4.
May soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, psychological support crossing at 300.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 307.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 307.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 313.00. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 300.30. Second support is psychological support crossing at 300.00.
May soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.17 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 29.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.17. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 30.64. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 29.51. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 29.08.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.80 at $63.65.
April hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 65.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.69 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 65.30. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 68.11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.69. Second support is February's low crossing at 52.25.
April cattle closed down $2.35 at 126.65.
April cattle closed sharply lower on Tuesday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.46 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends today's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 125.41 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 129.88 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 130.45. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 125.41. Second support the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 122.76.
April Feeder cattle closed down $1.73 at $145.98.
April Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 147.83 would confirm an upside breakout of the trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 143.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 147.83. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 150.20. First support is January's low crossing at 142.63. Second support is December's low crossing at 141.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it renewed the decline off last-October's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 92.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.94 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cocoa closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.96 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 21.12 is the next downside target.
May sugar closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 11.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.70 would confirm that a low has been posted.
May cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 76.14 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 68.36 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!