INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - April 6, 2018, 7:36 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, April 6, 2018  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. March U.S. Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +173K; previous +313K)

 



 

 

                       Unemployment Rate (expected 4.0%; previous 4.1%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 26.75)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.04)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.15%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.6%)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)

 



 

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous +26K)

 



 

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +287K)

 



 

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 63.0%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. February Consumer Credit

 



 

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +15.0B; previous +13.91B)

 



 

 

Monday, April 9, 2018  

 



 

 

9:30 AM ET. SEC Fixed Income Market Structure Advisory Committee Meeting

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March Employment Trends Index

 



 

 

                       ETI (previous 107.74)

 



 

 

                       ETI, Y/Y% (previous +5.6%)

 



 

 

1100/1500           IMF World Economic Outlook analytical chapters

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6775.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 6192.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 6654.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6775.84. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 6306.75. Second support is February's low crossing at 6192.50.  



The June S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2684.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2533.51 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2684.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2713.46. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2554.00. Second support isthe 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2533.51.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as they consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 147-03. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-12.



June T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.173 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 122.020 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 121.120. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.020. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.173. Second support is March's low crossing at 119.220.  



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: MayNymex crude oil was lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 66.55. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.60. Second support is March's low crossing at 59.91.  



May heating oil was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 207.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 207.28. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 208.95. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.05. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 192.90. 



May unleaded gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 193.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 208.89 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 205.45. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 208.89. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 193.63. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 192.70. 



May Henry natural gas was higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 2.764 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes Monday's decline, March's low crossing at 2.610 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 2.764. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.831. First support is March's low crossing at 2.610. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.600.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-months. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 89.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. First support is March's low crossing at 88.53. Second support is February's low crossing at 87.93.



The June Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 122.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 125.53. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 126.58. First support is March's low crossing at 122.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 121.97. 



The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's loss. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends Thursday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1.3945 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3962 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1.4294. Second high is January's high crossing at 1.4404. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.3945. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 1.3926.  



The June Swiss Franc were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0344 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0574 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0574. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0701. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0429. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0344.



The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.59 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 78.57. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.59. Second support is March's low crossing at 76.33.  



The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9327 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9465 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9465. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.9615. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9327. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9237.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 1362.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1362.60. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1369.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30.



May silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 15.705 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 16.810 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 16.810. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 16.895. First support is March's low crossing at 16.100. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705. 



May copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Thursday's high crossing at 308.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 281.96 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 308.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 313.45. First support is March's low crossing at 293.75. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 281.96 is the next downside target.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.01 is the next upside target. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.78. Second support is March's low crossing at 3.69 1/4.  



May wheat was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 19th gap crossing at 4.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 19th gap crossing at 4.67. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.69 3/4. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 4.44 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.36.    



May Kansas City Wheat closed up 12 1/2-cents at 4.98 1/2. 



May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 19th high crossing at 4.99 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.74 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the March 19th gap crossing at 4.99 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.33 1/4. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 4.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.54 3/4.    



May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.97 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 5.59 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.97 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.10 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5.71. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 5.59 1/4. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans were lower overnight as volatile trading continues.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends Wednesday's decline, February's low crossing at 9.79 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.31 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 10.60 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 9.87 1/4. Second support is February's low crossing at 9.79 1/4.



May soybean meal was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 404.00 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 363.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 389.70. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 348.30.



May soybean oil was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off November's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 32.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 32.73. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.96. First support is March's low crossing at 31.35. Second support is the January-2016-low crossing at 30.67.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed up $0.55 at $73.83. 



June hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off Wednesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.06 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 69.77 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.06. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.25. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 70.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 69.77.



June cattle closed up $2.73 at 105.05. 



June cattle closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rebound off off Wednesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off February's high, the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 106.92. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.95. First support is the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63. Second support is the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40.

 

May Feeder cattle closed up $2.93 at $138.05. 



May Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday confirming yesterday's key reversal up. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 126.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.67. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 144.87. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 130.80. Second support is weekly support crossing at 126.09.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.14 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target.      



May cocoa closed higher on Thursday but remains below the 20-day moving average. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.92 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 27.55 is the next upside target. 



May sugar closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 12.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.60 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. 



May cotton closed sharply higher on Thursday erasing all of Wednesday's losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 76.44 is the next downside target.

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