KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, March 21, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Week U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 846.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1914.9K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 346K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 229K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +6K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1776000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +18K)
8:30 AM ET. March Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -4.1)
Prices Paid (previous 21.8)
Employment (previous 14.5)
New Orders (previous -2.4)
Prices Received (previous 27.7)
Delivery Times (previous 13.6)
Inventories (previous 3.3)
Shipments (previous -5.3)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Services * Release delayed from 7 March due to the
partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government which ended 25 January
10:00 AM ET. February Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Leading Index
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1186B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -204B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, March 22, 2019
8:30 AM ET. New York Fed Research Conference on Fin-Tech
9:45 AM ET. March US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 56.2)
9:45 AM ET. March US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 53.7)
10:00 AM ET. February Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. January Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +1.1%)
10:00 AM ET. February Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 4.94M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -1.2%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.9)
Median Price (USD) (previous 247500)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +2.8%)
2:00 PM ET. February Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S.
Govt * Release delayed from 12 Mar due to the partial
shutdown of the U.S. federal government which ended 25 January
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The June NASDAQ 100 closes lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to low opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 7524.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7201.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 7421.25. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7524.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7201.88. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6988.20.
The June S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2800.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2856.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73. First support is the 20-day moving low crossing at 2800.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2728.59.
The Dow closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Today's round of profit taking by investors was due to uncertainty over the Fed's decision regarding interest rates. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a pause in the rally off March's low might have begun or that a short-term top was posted with Tuesday's high. If the Dow renews the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,223.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 26,241.42 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 26,282.97. Second resistance is the October 2018 high crossing at 26,951.81. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 25,703.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,223.59.
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June T-bonds closed up 1-01/32's at 146-26.
June T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off March's low. The Federal Reserve's announcement that it would leave interest rates unchanged at between 2.25% and 2.5% and the release of projections that indicate the central bank won't raise rates at all this year underpinned today's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 147-31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 145-09 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 147-00. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 147-31. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 143-10. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 141-27.
June T-notes closed up 225-pts. at 123.150.
June T-notes closed sharply higher on Wednesday following the Fed's announcement that interest rates will remain stable and unchanged for 2019. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally. January's high crossing at 123.175 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.084 would confirm that a double top with January's high has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 123.155. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.175. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.084. Second support is March's low crossing at 121.155.
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April crude oil closed higher on Wednesday and above the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.51 as it extends the rally off December's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 55.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 60.12. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.44. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.18. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 55.10.
April heating oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 194.52 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 202.41. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17. First support is the reaction low crossing at 194.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 193.70.
April unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 199.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 179.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 191.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 199.62. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 179.96. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 169.78.
April Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-February decline crossing at 2.938 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's crossing at 2.752 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.897. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-February decline crossing at 2.938. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2.752. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.732.
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The June Dollar closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.68 and the late-February low crossing at 95.24 thereby confirming that the intermediate trend has turned bearish.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the late-January low crossing at 94.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.21 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 97.16. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the late-January low crossing at 94.38. Second support is the January's low crossing at 94.15.
The June Euro closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the last-January high crossing at 116.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.94 would confirm that a short-term top has likely been posted.First resistance is today's high crossing at 115.33. Second resistance is the late-January high crossing at 116.46. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.62. Second support is the January 2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3127 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3603 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3441. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3603. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3127. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.
The June Swiss Franc closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0137 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the September-January downtrend line crossing near 1.0260 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0050 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.0190. Second resistance is the September-January downtrend line crossing near 1.0260. First support is March's low crossing at 0.9970. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902.
The June Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 74.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.60. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.46. First support is March's low crossing at 74.43. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen posted a key reversal up on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 0.0911 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 0.0893 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0915. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0922. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0893.
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April gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1306.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1292.50 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1317.20. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1349.80. First support is January's low crossing at 1281.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at 1273.20.
May silver closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.662 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.935 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.662. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 16.060. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.935. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.644.
May copper closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 287.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the reaction low crossing at 287.45. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 281.80.
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May Corn closed up a 1/4-cent at 3.71 1/2.
May corn closed fractionally higher on Wednesday as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.72. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 3.55 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.73. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.80 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.61. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.55 1/4.
May wheat closed up 8-cents at 4.64 1/2.
May wheat closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.58 1/2 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.95 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.49 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.65. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.95 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.49 1/2. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.27.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 8 1/4-cents at 4.44.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.42 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.42 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.81. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.18 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed up 6 1/4-cents at 5.71 1/2.
May Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.65 3/4 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 5.81 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.56 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 5.83 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.93 3/4. First support is March's low crossing at 5.44. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4.
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May soybeans closed up 1 1/4-cents at 9.05 1/4.
May soybeans closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.08 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off February's high, the November 26th low crossing at 8.84 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.08 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.19 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 8.87 3/4. Second support is the November 26th low crossing at 8.84 3/4.
May soybean meal closed up $0.40 at 311.20.
May soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 312.00 are needed to confirm that the short-term trend change is turning neutral to friendly. If May renews the decline off January's high, psychological support crossing at 300.0 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 312.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 313.00. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 300.30. Second support is psychological support crossing at 300.00.
May soybean oil closed up 5-pt. at 29.29.
May soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 29.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.96. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 30.64. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 29.15. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 29.08.
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April hogs closed up $3.00 at $73.83.
April hogs closed limit up on Wednesday and posted a new contract high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 65.85 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 73.83. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.17. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 65.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.98.
April cattle closed up $0.45 at 129.58.
April cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above March's high crossing at 130.45 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. Closes below March's low crossing at 1265.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 130.45. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 125.41. Second support the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 122.76.
April Feeder cattle closed up $0.53 at $148.33.
April Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 147.83 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 143.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 147.83. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 150.20. First support is March's low crossing at 143.50. Second support is January's low crossing at 142.62.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it renewed the decline off last-October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 92.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.79 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cocoa closed lower on Wednesday and below the previous reaction low thereby renewing the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 21.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.68 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 13.42 is the next upside target. May renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 11.82 is the next downside target.
May cotton closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 76.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!