KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, March 25, 2019
8:30 AM ET. February CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous -0.43)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.00)
10:30 AM ET. March Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 13.1)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 10.1)
N/A Annual World Bank Conference on Land and Poverty
N/A U.S. President Donald Trump hosts Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The June NASDAQ 100 closes sharply lower on Friday on global economic concerns. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off December's low, last-September high crossing at 7767.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7238.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7524.41. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 7767.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7238.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7022.51.
The June S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Friday due to profit taking on economic concerns. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2805.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2861.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73. First support is the 20-day moving low crossing at 2805.15. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2738.74.
The Dow closed sharply lower on Friday posting a triple digit loss after a downbeat round of macroeconomic data in Europe and the United States stoked global growth fears while a closely watched measure of the yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007, triggering recession worries. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish with today's sharp decline signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below March's low crossing at 25,208.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 26,241.42 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 26,282.97. Second resistance is the October 2018 high crossing at 26,951.81. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,297.68. Second support is March's low crossing at 25,208.00.
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June T-bonds closed up 1-22/32's at 148-26.
June T-bonds closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 152-01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 145-13 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 149-04. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 152-01. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 146-14. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 145-13.
June T-notes closed down 245-pts. at 124.040.
June T-notes closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off last October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally. Weekly resistance crossing at 125.265 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.106 would confirm that a double top with January's high has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 124.085. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 125.265. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.106. Second support is March's low crossing at 121.155.
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May crude oil closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 60.39. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.39. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.74. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 55.78.
May heating oil closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 193.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 201.58. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.17. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 193.99. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 181.97.
May unleaded gas closed lower due profit taking on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 200.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 181.27 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 191.10. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 200.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 181.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 171.95.
May Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's crossing at 2.765 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 2.923 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.897. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2.923. First support is today's low crossing at 2.730. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.620.
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The June Dollar closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.06 temper the near-term bearish outlook. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the late-January low crossing at 94.38 is the next downside target.First resistance is March's high crossing at 97.16. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the late-January low crossing at 94.38. Second support is the January's low crossing at 94.15.
The June Euro closed lower on Friday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 114.14 confirming that a short-term top has likely been posted.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off March's low, the last-January high crossing at 116.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 115.33. Second resistance is the late-January high crossing at 116.46. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.62. Second support is the January 2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound closed sharply higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3140 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3603 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3441. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3603. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3140. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.
The June Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the September-January downtrend line crossing near 1.0251 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0076 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0190. Second resistance is the September-January downtrend line crossing near 1.0251. First support is March's low crossing at 0.9970. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902.
The June Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 74.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.56. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.46. First support is March's low crossing at 74.43. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen closed higher on Friday confirming Wednesday's key reversal up. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0915 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 0.0893 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.0917. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0922. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0893.
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April gold closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 1349.80 is a potential upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1292.50 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1320.20. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1349.80. First support is January's low crossing at 1281.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at 1273.20.
May silver closed slightly lower on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.646 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.935 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.646. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 16.060. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.935. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.644.
May copper closed sharply lower on Friday and below the reaction low crossing at 287.45 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 282.66. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 275.95.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed up 2-cents at 3.78 1/4.
May corn closed higher on Friday as it extends the short covering rebound off March's low. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.79 3/4 would open the door for additional short covering gains ahead of the March 31st planting intentions report and quarterly grain stocks report. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.70 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.79 3/4. Second resistance is the February 25th reaction high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is March's low crossing at 3.61. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.55 1/4.
May wheat closed down 1 1/2-cents at 4.65.
May wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.54 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.73 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.93. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.54 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.27.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down 2-cents at 4.45.
May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.78 1/4 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.52 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.78 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.18 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed up 1-cent at 5.72 1/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off March's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 5.81 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.57 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 5.83 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.93 3/4. First support is March's low crossing at 5.44. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed down 6 1/4-cents at 9.04 1/4.
May soybeans closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.18 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off February's high, the November 26th low crossing at 8.84 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.18. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.24 3/4. First support is March's low crossing at 8.87 3/4. Second support is the November 26th low crossing at 8.84 3/4.
May soybean meal closed up $0.20 at 315.50.
May soybean meal closed slightly higher on Friday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 321.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 308.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 316.40. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 321.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 308.10. Second support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 300.30.
May soybean oil closed down 49-pt. at 28.61.
May soybean oil closed sharply lower on Friday and tested the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.60. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.76 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.76. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 30.64. First support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.60. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.17.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed unchanged at $78.33.
April hogs closed unchanged on Friday after posting a new contract high as it extends the rally off February's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 69.69 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 80.30. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.17. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 69.69. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.25.
April cattle closed down $0.18 at 129.73.
April cattle closed lower on Friday. Today's cattle-on-feed report was termed bearish and will likely trigger some selling on Monday. Therefore the stage is set for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above March's high crossing at 130.45 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. Closes below March's low crossing at 1265.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 130.45. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 125.41. Second support the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 122.76.
April Feeder cattle closed down $0.13 at $148.80.
April Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. Today's bearish placements number could pressure feeders on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 147.83. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 150.20. First support is March's low crossing at 143.50. Second support is January's low crossing at 142.62.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off last-October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 9.26 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.74 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cocoa closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, October's low crossing at 20.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.57 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May sugar closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. May renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 11.82 is the next downside target. If May extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 13.42 is the next upside target.
May cotton closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 79.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!