wonder if the grain markets will even notice?
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Started by mcfarm - March 28, 2019, 7 a.m.
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By metmike - March 28, 2019, 3:02 p.m.
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mcfarm,

This has been out there for over a week now. 

Well before this official government report was issued then, the market has been trading these conditions and was dialing up prices to add risk premium.


The similarities with 2019 to 1993 have been discussed all over the place for numerous weeks now. 

The forecasts this week, to me seem drier and warmer for especially the Upper Midwest which may explain some of the pressure on grains..........and we have over a month to turn drier(and warmer) before any corn needs to be planted.

In order to add to the planting delay risk premium that's already there, we will need forecasts to get wetter than what is already expected OR continue this wet for several more weeks.................when it starts to count.

If we come in one day and the forecasts all look extremely wet, with excessive rains............that would do it, even if it was next Monday.

The USDA report out tomorrow will be center stage though.

If the corn numbers are bullish, the market could decide to use the currently, pretty wet forecast to go higher. 

Planting delay rallys are pretty unheard of in April, let alone March............but this year is different. The market knows there is a much higher risk for excessive rains to hinder planting significantly and will be trading planting weather, the earliest that its traded planted weather in history(its already started).


By mcfarm - March 28, 2019, 4:15 p.m.
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By becker - March 28, 2019, 5:46 p.m.
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By metmike - March 29, 2019, 10:48 a.m.
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By metmike - March 29, 2019, 12:25 p.m.
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Prospective Plantings

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/pspl0319.txt


Corn Planted Acreage Up 4 Percent from 2018 Soybean Acreage Down 5 Percent All Wheat Acreage Down 4 Percent All Cotton Acreage Down 2 Percent 
Corn planted area for all purposes in 2019 is estimated at 92.8 million acres, up 4 percent or 3.66 million acres from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 34 of the 48 estimating States. 
Soybean planted area for 2019 is estimated at 84.6 million acres, down 5 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is down or unchanged in 26 of the 29 estimating States. 
All wheat planted area for 2019 is estimated at 45.8 million acres, down 4 percent from 2018. This represents the lowest all wheat planted area on record since records began in 1919. The 2019 winter wheat planted area, at 31.5 million acres, is down 3 percent from last year but up 1 percent from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 22.4 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 5.55 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.55 million acres are White Winter. Area planted to other spring wheat for 2019 is estimated at 12.8 million acres, down 3 percent from 2018. Of this total, about 12.4 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2019 is estimated at 1.42 million acres, down 31 percent from the previous year. 
All cotton planted area for 2019 is estimated at 13.8 million acres, 2 percent below last year. Upland area is estimated at 13.5 million acres, down 2 percent from 2018. American Pima area is estimated at 255,000 acres, up 2 percent from 2018.

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/grst0319.txt

Corn Stocks Down 3 Percent from March 2018 Soybean Stocks Up 29 Percent All Wheat Stocks Up 6 Percent 
Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2019 totaled 8.60 billion bushels, down 3 percent from March 1, 2018. Of the total stocks, 5.13 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 3 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.47 billion bushels, are down 11 percent from a year ago. The December 2018 - February 2019 indicated disappearance is 3.33 billion bushels, compared with 3.67 billion bushels during the same period last year. 
Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2019 totaled 2.72 billion bushels, up 29 percent from March 1, 2018. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 1.27 billion bushels, up 49 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.45 billion bushels, are up 15 percent from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2018 - February 2019 quarter totaled 1.03 billion bushels, down 2 percent from the same period a year earlier. 
All wheat stored in all positions on March 1, 2019 totaled 1.59 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 368 million bushels, up 42 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 1.22 billion bushels, are down 1 percent from a year ago. The December 2018 - February 2019 indicated disappearance is 419 million bushels, 11 percent above the same period a year earlier.
By metmike - March 29, 2019, 12:33 p.m.
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Report negative corn and wheat, soybeans neutral

https://www.ocj.com/2019/03/report-negative-corn-and-wheat-soybeans-neutral/

"Friday’s USDA Prospective Plantings report was negative with corn stocks 325 million bushels above trade estimates. This is still way too early to say this, but you have to wonder if the 2018 corn yield will move higher later this summer.

Corn stocks were 8.6 billion bushels, soybean stocks were 2.72 billion bushels, while wheat stocks were 1.59 billion bushels. Corn acres were 92.8 million acres, soybean acres were 84.6 million acres, and all wheat acres were 45.8 million acres."


By silverspiker - March 29, 2019, 7:31 p.m.
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new york GIF

By metmike - March 30, 2019, 12:12 a.m.
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By the numbers (complements of Reuters)