KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, March 28, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 223K; previous 221K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous 9K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1750000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -27K)
8:30 AM ET. Week En U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 915.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 335.1K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 437.4K)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter rd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.4%; previous +2.6%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +1.8%; previous +1.8%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q%
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.6%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +2.5%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Ex (previous +1.7%)
Food/Energy, Q/Q%
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.8%)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Corporate Profits
9:00 AM ET. SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. February Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 103.2)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected +0.8%; previous +4.6%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -2.3%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1143B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -47B)
11:00 AM ET. March Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous -4)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 18)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 1)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 13)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
3:00 PM ET. February Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -4.5%)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, March 29, 2019
8:30 AM ET. February Personal Income & Outlays * Report does not include figures
on consumer spending, personal saving, and the PCE price
indexes for February. Instead, it will include consumer
spending, personal saving, the PCE price indexes, and related
data for January.
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M%
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y%
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% ((previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% +1.9%
Personal Inc, M/M% (Jan'19)
9:45 AM ET. March ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 60.7; previous 64.7)
10:00 AM ET. March University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 97.8; previous 93.8)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 84.4)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.6%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.3%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 108.5)
10:00 AM ET. February New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 620K; previous 607K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +2.1%; previous -6.9%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 6.6)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. International Investment Position
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7279.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off December's low, last-October's high crossing at 7767.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7524.41. Second resistance is the October 3rd 2018 high crossing at 7767.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7279.84. Second support is the 50-day moving average low crossing at 7079.03.
The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2808.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 2862.60. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2808.02. Second support is the50-day moving average crossing at 2755.78.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading as they consolidate some of the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 152-01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 146-19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 150-21. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 152-01. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 147-29. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146-19.
June T-notes were lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 125.265 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.021 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 124.310. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 125.265. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 123.243. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.021.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
May crude oil was slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.39 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 60.39. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.39. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.32.
May heating oil was lower overnight while extending the February-March trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.03 would confirm a downside breakout of the February-March trading range. If May resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.89. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.03. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 194.18.
May unleaded gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 183.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 200.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 189.65. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 200.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 183.72. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 173.90.
May Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off last Tuesday's high, the reaction low crossing at 2.620 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.821 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2.897. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 2.923. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 2.690. Second support is the Feb. 15th reaction low crossing at 2.620.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 97.16 is a potential upside target.If June resumes this month's decline, the late-January low crossing at 94.38 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 97.16. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is March's low crossing at 95.17. Second support is the late-January low crossing at 94.38.
The June Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, March's low crossing at 112.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.53 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 115.35. Second resistance is the late-January high crossing at 116.46. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 112.62. Second support is the April-10th-2017 low crossing at 111.05.
The June British Pound was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.3060 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 1.3603. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1.3441. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 1.3603. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.3060. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.3026.
The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0082 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the September-January downtrend line crossing near 1.0237 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0191. Second resistance is the September-January downtrend line crossing near 1.0237. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0082. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.9970.
The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next likely downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 75.49 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.49. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 76.46. First support is March's low crossing at 74.43. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0906 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 0.0918 would open the door for a possible test of the late-January high crossing at 0.0931. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 0.0918. Second resistance is the late-January high crossing at 0.0931. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 0.0893.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1302.00 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If April extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 1332.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1332.40. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1349.80. First support is March's low crossing at 1280.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1273.20.
May silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.935 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.617 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.617. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 16.010. First support is March's low crossing at 14.985. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.935.
May copper was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 290.30 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 284.39 would open the door for a possible test of the reaction low crossing at 275.95. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 284.39. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 275.95.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline of the past two-days. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.71 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.79 would open the door for additional gains and a possible test of the February 25th reaction high crossing at 3.87 3/4.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.79. Second resistance is the February 25th reaction high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.67 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 3.61.
May wheat was lower overnight due to position squaring ahead of Friday's Quarterly grain stocks and perspective acreage reports.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.56 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.75 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.88 3/4. First support is March's low crossing at 4.27. Second support is long-term support crossing at 4.19 1/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 1 1/4-cents at 4.44 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If May renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.74 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.54. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.74 1/4. First support is March's low crossing at 4.18 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was lower in narrow trading overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 5.81 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.77 1/4. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 5.81 1/4. First support is March's low crossing at 5.44. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were higher overnight as they consolidate some of Wednesday's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the November 26th reaction low crossing at 8.84 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.02 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.16 1/2. Second resistance is the February 25th reaction high crossing at 9.23 3/4. First support is the November-26th low crossing at 8.84 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December 2018 rally crossing at 8.78.
May soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at 300.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 311.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 316.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 321.30. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 303.60. Second support is March's low crossing at 300.30.
May soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates above the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.60.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.44. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 30.64. First support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.60. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.17.
Thanks tallpine!