INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - April 1, 2019, 7:47 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, April 1, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. February Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

 



 

 

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.9%)

 



 

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +1.2%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. March US Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 53.0)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place

 



 

 

                       New Construction (previous +1.3%)

 



 

 

                       Residential Construction

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

 



 

 

                       Total Inventories (previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March ISM Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Manufacturing PMI (previous 54.2)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 49.4)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 52.3)

 



 

 

                       Inventories (previous 53.4)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 55.5)

 



 

 

                       Production Idx (previous 54.8)

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. March Global Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 50.6)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight on the first day of the new quarter, after better-than-expected China manufacturing data calmed some lingering concerns about momentum for the world’s second-biggest economy. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off December's low, last-October's high crossing at 7767.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7306.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7524.41. Second resistance is the October 3rd 2018 high crossing at 7767.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7306.85. Second support is the 50-day moving average low crossing at 7107.87.  



The June S&P 500 was sharply higher overnight on friendly Chinese manufacturing data. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 2792.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 2862.60. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2792.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2764.83.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower in late-overnight trading as they consolidate some of the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 147-04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 152-01 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 150-21. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 152-01. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 148-18. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 147-04.



June T-notes were lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.093 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 125.265 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 124.310. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 125.265. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 123.313. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.196.



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



May crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 60.87. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.39. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.67. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.62.  



May heating oil was higher overnight while extending the February-March trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 193.69 would confirm a downside breakout of the February-March trading range. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.89. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.51. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 193.69. 



May unleaded gas was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 200.45 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 181.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 189.65. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 200.45. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 181.47. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174.93. 



May Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the reaction low crossing at 2.620 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.801 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.761. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.801. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.656. Second support is the Feb. 15th reaction low crossing at 2.620.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 97.16 is a potential upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.89 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 97.16. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is March's low crossing at 95.17. Second support is the late-January low crossing at 94.38.



The June Euro was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, March's low crossing at 112.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.42 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 115.35. Second resistance is the late-January high crossing at 116.46. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 112.62. Second support is the April-10th-2017 low crossing at 111.05.   



The June British Pound was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below March's low crossing at 1.3026 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3226 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1.3441. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 1.3603. First support is March's low crossing at 1.3026. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.  



The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0083 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the September-January downtrend line crossing near 1.0231 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1.0191. Second resistance is the September-January downtrend line crossing near 1.0231. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0083. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.9970. 



The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.47 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next likely downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.47. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 76.46. First support is March's low crossing at 74.43. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.



The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0907 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 0.0918 would open the door for a possible test of the late-January high crossing at 0.0931. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 0.0918. Second resistance is the late-January high crossing at 0.0931. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 0.0893.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off March's high, 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1273.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1309.10 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1324.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1349.80. First support is March's low crossing at 1280.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1273.20.



May silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.935 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.316 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.589. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 16.010. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.935. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.644.



May copper was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off March's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 285.39 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 285.39. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 275.95.   



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of last Friday's bearish quarterly grain stocks and perspective planting intentions report. Both of these reports were bearish and exceeded pre-report expectations that triggered last-Friday's huge decline. Projected carryout jumped some 300 million bushels pushing projected ending stocks to near 2 billion bushels of corn. Planted acres also came in above the range of pre-report guesses catching the market off guard. For corn bulls there are only two cards that could play out that would lead to a significant rebound in corn prices this year. They are a weather related problem and or a trade deal between the U.S. and China that would lead to a sizable import of corn and corn products. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next likely downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.71 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.71 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.80 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3.56. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.  



May wheat was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.56 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.86 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.75 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.86 1/2. First support is March's low crossing at 4.27. Second support is long-term support crossing at 4.19 1/4.



May Kansas City Wheat closed down 8 3/4-cents at 4.30.

 

May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.71 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.54. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.71 1/4. First support is March's low crossing at 4.18 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.  



May Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends last week's losses. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 5.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.65 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 5.76 3/4. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 5.81 1/4. First support is March's low crossing at 5.44. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans were higher overnight as they consolidate some of last-Friday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-December 2018 rally crossing at 8.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.99 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.99 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.12. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 8.83. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December 2018 rally crossing at 8.78.



May soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 310.60 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May resumes last week's decline, March's low crossing at 300.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 316.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 321.30. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 303.60. Second support is March's low crossing at 300.30.   



May soybean oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.26 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.26. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 30.64. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 28.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.17.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed down $3.25 at $88.55. 



June hogs closed sharply lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 97.82. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.17. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.69. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.10. 



April cattle closed down $0.83 at 125.70. 



April cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off March's high.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019 rally crossing at 125.45 is the next downside target. Closes above 20-day moving average crossing at 128.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.16. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 130.45. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 125.45. Second support the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 122.80. 

 

April Feeder cattle closed down $0.70 at $145.25. 



April Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.72 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 150.80. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 155.70. First support is March's low crossing at 143.50. Second support is January's low crossing at 142.62.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed higher due to short covering on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.62 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 9.12 is the next downside target. 



May cocoa closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 23.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.01 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.          



May sugar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. May renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 11.82 is the next downside target. If May resumes the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 13.42 is the next upside target.    



May cotton closed higher on Friday following today's neutral to friendly USDA reports. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 79.88 is the next upside target.   Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - April 1, 2019, 10:18 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!