KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, April 5, 2019
8:30 AM ET. March U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +175K; previous +20K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.8%; previous 3.8%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.66)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.11)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +3.4%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous -5K)
Private Payroll (previous +25K)
Participation Rate (previous 63.2%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
3:00 PM ET. February Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +17.75B; previous +17.05B)
Monday, April 8, 2019
8:30 AM ET. G24 Committee of the Whole
10:00 AM ET. February Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
10:00 AM ET. March Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 111.15)
ETI, Y/Y%
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off December's low, last-October's high crossing at 7767.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7398.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 7616.25. Second resistance is the October 3rd 2018 high crossing at 7767.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7398.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average low crossing at 7175.14.
The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally above the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off December's low, last-September high crossing at 2957.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 2792.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 2957.90. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2792.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2783.40.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 147-18 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 152-01 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 150-21. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 152-01. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 147-18. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 146-07.
June T-notes were lower overnight as they extend the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.163 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 125.265 is the next upside target.First resistance is March's high crossing at 124.310. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 125.265. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.163. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.240.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
May crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.87 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 62.99. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.39. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.87. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 57.32.
May heating oil was lower overnight while extending the February-March trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 193.69 would confirm a downside breakout of the February-March trading range. If May resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.89. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 196.59. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 193.69.
May unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 200.45 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 181.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 195.58. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 200.45. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 181.47. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177.33.
May Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the reaction low crossing at 2.620 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.761 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.699. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.761. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.632. Second support is the Feb. 15th reaction low crossing at 2.620.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 97.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.02 are needed to confirm that a double top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 97.16. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.02.
The June Euro was slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.62. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.26. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 112.62. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound was slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below March's low crossing at 1.3026 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3222 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1.3441. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 1.3603. First support is March's low crossing at 1.3026. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.
The June Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 0.9970 is a potential downside target. If June resumes the rally off March's low, the September-January downtrend line crossing near 1.0217 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1.0191. Second resistance is the September-January downtrend line crossing near 1.0217. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0061. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.9970.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next likely downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.45. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 76.46. First support is March's low crossing at 74.43. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, December's low crossing at 0.0894 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0911 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0918. Second resistance is the late-January high crossing at 0.0931. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is December's low crossing at 0.0894.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off March's high, 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1273.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1309.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1324.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1349.80. First support is March's low crossing at 1280.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1273.20.
May silver was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.935. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.285 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.644 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.285. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.563. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.935. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.644.
May copper was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 287.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 287.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 275.95.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.69 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next likely downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.69. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.80 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3.56. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.
May wheat was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 4.52 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.81 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.75 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.81 3/4. First support is March's low crossing at 4.27. Second support is long-term support crossing at 4.19 1/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 2 3/4-cents at 4.39 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.64 3/4 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 4.54. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.64 3/4. First support is March's low crossing at 4.18 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.61 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.50 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.61. First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.25 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-Friday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.13 1/4 is the next upside target. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-December 2018 rally crossing at 8.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.13 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.24 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 8.83. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December 2018 rally crossing at 8.78.
May soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, March's high crossing at 316.50 is the next upside target. If May resumes the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 300.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 316.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 321.30. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 303.60. Second support is March's low crossing at 300.30.
May soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-Friday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.89 is the next upside target. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.89. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 30.64. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 28.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.17.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed up $3.00 at $97.85.
June hogs closed limit up on Thursday as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 110.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 97.82. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.53. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.19. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.23.
April cattle closed up $1.78 at 127.55.
April cattle closed higher on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above 50-day moving average crossing at 127.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off March's high, January's low crossing at 123.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.92. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 130.45. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 125.45. Second support the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 122.80.
April Feeder cattle closed up $1.58 at $146.33.
April Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 147.20 would confirm that a low has been posted. If April extends the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 143.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 150.80. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 155.70. First support is March's low crossing at 143.50. Second support is January's low crossing at 142.62.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed slightly lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.53 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 9.12 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, December's high crossing at 24.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May sugar closed higher on Thursday as it extends this year's trading range. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. May renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 11.82 is the next downside target. If May resumes the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 13.42 is the next upside target.
May cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 79.88 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!