Crude is on a tear this week. Up $4 this week and still running strong. It looks like it is going to blow through some pretty significant resistance with ease.
I just noticed crude breaking above some more short term resistance and was going to post something and saw your post. Amazing but expected. Target still $350.
$100 (let alone $350) crude will rescue Tesla and people will forget about SUV's again. Economies will struggle and it will only accelerate the change over to battery powered transportation in almost every category.
There is no way $100 oil will get people to give up SUV's. We need to break $200, before they even think about it.
Don't know about the price of crude, but $5.00 /gal gas would probably do it.
Yup, a car that isnt in need of care is my dream. no sparkplug air filter and gassing up along with the inevitable injector/carb rebuild or replacements along with the oil changes, we are steadily getting away from watering and feeding the horse. i think some of the trouble in petro country is driven by fear the world will use less oil. . What i mean is our worry over peak oil and opec's relevancy is changing,
As far as the economy struggling, the economy will grow if the FED wants it to grow, and the economy will fall if the FED wants it to fall and oil is second to that. In 2008, the FED purposely destroyed the economy and the crash was what the FED wanted. This time could easily be different. They may just push through and devalue our debt when it becomes to big.
Today kind of feels like a short term top and a pull back very easily could happen but this week just proves the overall power of this market and how all surprises are to the upside at this point, especially considering how weak money supply is, stock market is in correction mode and we are in a seasonally weak time of the year.
Some of this is in reaction to the possibility of dropping some bombs on Syria and what Russia might do. There is no fundamental reason for a $4+ increase in one week.
Going up much more then $4 this week. Go Crude Go! ! No war news, no booming stock market, still in the weak season, yet it keeps going . . .
Looking at the COT report for oil, clearly there are signs that this could be a top here. I would hate to short this market, but a close below $66.00 next week could spell trouble for this market and send oil back down to the low around $58/$60
Well at this point there is ZERO chance of $66 oil, any time soon and quite possible in our lifetime.
While the COT report looked bearish, the open interest looks like it went up close to 200,000 since Tuesday's close
I learned that making "absolute" statements on price usually resulted in having egg on my face.
I am reminded of Gartman's oil price call when crude was trading low 30's/upper 20's
You've learned that too? (G)
Kind of like the saying when I was doing a lot of flying in small bush planes in Alaska (60s & 70s). "There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots, but there are no old bold pilots."
when I made that post the US and England were bombing Iranian and Russian troops in Syria which clearly was a false flag attack. I obviously become slightly emotional and thought more would happen and as it turns out that bombing mission affected the markets less then I had originally thought, none the less, looking at a one hour chart of oil, the decline we had sent oil prices below the $66 level for a total of two periods. But thanks for pointing this slip up for me. Oil is above $68 as I write this, and wonder how your shorts are doing as I am the ONLY person here that has been bullish oil. You do not need to worry about my posts here, as I am getting tired of this web site and as soon as I find a new trading site I am gone.
Hi Richard, I don't know why you think you are the only one here that is bullish crude oil. You are correct that oil is going higher, much higher. I usually don't post here because it is impossible to have a logical discussion with people who primarily just call each names.
The reasons for higher oil are:
- U.S. shale oil supplies can't continue to increase at current rates, because of infrastructure limitations.
- Oil exploration in the rest of the world has fallen so much that new production doesn't even cover the decline rates in most countries.
- There is very little excess capacity in OPEC. OPEC production is staying within the agreed production limits because Saudi Arabia is the only place that has ample excess capacity and they know that prices will go up if they don't over produce. The math is simple, a 3% reduction in OPEC supply results in a 20% increase in prices, unless we get new production from somewhere else.
- OPEC countries are unstable and there will be conflicts that result in crude oil supply disruptions at some point.
- Electric cars don't matter. The most optimistic electric vehicle production forecasts call for it to increase from 100,000 vehicles/year to 1,000,000 vehicles/per year by 2023 (which current electric grids won't be able to support). Even with that 10 fold increase in electric cars, combustion engine vehicle production will need to increase from 17 million/year to 18.0 million/per year over that same period to meet the world's transportation needs (annual growth of 2.1% in total vehicle production).
I don't play crude oil futures so I don't have a short term opinion on that. I have been buying oil producers stocks and will patiently wait for crude prices to double or triple.
sorry for the multiple posts
Congrats on your crude call. A few years ago I was knocking you for being non stop bullish for 7 years and wrong most of the time.
Maybe you were just years and years too early or maybe it was just a matter of crude going up eventually. $69 on CLK is not exactly sky high yet vs some of the past prices which were much higher than that(I think we were $80+ in 2014) but I think qsteak hit the nail on the head with many of his points.
CL is the highest in over 3 years and fundamentals are looking the most bullish in a very long time and when you are right, you are right regardless of how many times that you were wrong in the past...........and you are right here in 2018, which is all that counts right now.
This is a good time to be Richard on the forum............don't bail quite yet.
Even though this place has died, enjoy posting here a bit longer during the crude bull market if for no other reason than its more fun to post on markets/trades that you are right on(which is happening now) then those that you were wrong about.
Crude inventories plunged last year by the most in history (over 100 million barrels). So far this year, they have increased slightly. Seasonally, the energies tend to be very strong from late Winter into early Spring. We'll see if that strength holds up, as crude has clearly broken out to the upside, $2 above its January highs now. The decisive break out was last week........and we came back and tested the upside breakout above $66 yesterday.
Heating oil was just barely above those January highs last week(could have been a double top before today) and today, doing so with authority as heating oil in storage is lower than last year's historic record amount(early in 2017):
Gasoline is lagging, still just below the Jan 2018 highs as gasoline supplies are have not dropped nearly as much: