INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - April 15, 2019, 7:22 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, April 15, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Empire State Manufacturing Survey

 



 

 

                       Mfg Idx (previous 3.7)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 13.8)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 3.0)

 



 

 

                       Prices Received (previous 18.1)

 



 

 

9:30 AM ET. SEC Fixed Income Market Structure Advisory Committee Meeting

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly lower in quiet tradingovernight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off December's low, last-October's high crossing at 7767.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7502.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 7665.00. Second resistance is the October 3rd 2018 high crossing at 7767.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7502.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average low crossing at 7271.88.  



The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off December's low, last-September high crossing at 2957.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2861.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2915.00. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 2957.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2861.12. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2810.15.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 146-16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-02 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 150-21. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 152-01. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 146-16. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 145-03.



June T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as they consolidate some of last-Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.292 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.229 is the next upside target.First resistance is March's high crossing at 124.310. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 125.265. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.292. Second resistance is the reaction low crossing at 122.120.



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



May crude oil was lower overnight as it extends last week's trading range above the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.39. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 67.68 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 64.79. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 67.68. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.63. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 58.50.  



May heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.89. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.94. 



May unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 193.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 207.02. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.54. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 199.22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 193.92. 



May Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the reaction low crossing at 2.620 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.720 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.720. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.747. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.632. Second support is the Feb. 15th reaction low crossing at 2.620.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a double top with March's high might be forming. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.23 are needed to confirm that a double top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 97.16 is the next upside target.First resistance is March's high crossing at 97.16. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.48. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.22.



The June Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.97 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.97. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 115.35. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 112.62. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.   



The June British Pound was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3169 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes below March's low crossing at 1.3026 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1.3441. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 1.3603. First support is March's low crossing at 1.3026. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.  



The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 0.9970 is a potential downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0094 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0094. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1.0191. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0015. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.9970. 



The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the March-April symmetrical triangle. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next likely downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.33. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 76.46. First support is March's low crossing at 74.43. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.



The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, December's low crossing at 0.0894 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0908 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0918. Second resistance is the late-January high crossing at 0.0931. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0898. Second support is December's low crossing at 0.0894.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, 38% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1273.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1312.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1314.70. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1330.80. First support is April's low crossing at 1284.90. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1273.10.



May silver was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.644 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.195 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.195. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.449. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 14.845. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.644.



May copper was lower overnight while extending the February-April trading range. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 289.03 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 289.32. Second support is March's low crossing at 283.45.   



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.66 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next likely downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.66 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.80 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.55 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.  



May wheat was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.97 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 4.52 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.75 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.97 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.52 1/2. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.27. 



May Kansas City Wheat closed up 3 3/4-cents at 4.34 1/4.

 

May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.54 3/4 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.54. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.54 3/4. First support is March's low crossing at 4.18 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.  



May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.48 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.30 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.48. First support is April's low crossing at 5.21. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.15 1/4. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans were higher in quiet overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading possible near-term. If May renews the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.09 is the next upside target. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-December 2018 rally crossing at 8.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.09. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.24 3/4. First support is March's low crossing at 8.83. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December 2018 rally crossing at 8.78.



May soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off the late-March low, March's high crossing at 316.50 is the next upside target. If May resumes the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 300.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 316.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 321.30. First support is the late-March low crossing at 303.60. Second support is March's low crossing at 300.30.   



May soybean oil was lower overnight as it forms a small symmetrical triangle. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.71 is the next upside target. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.71. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 30.64. First support is March's low crossing at 28.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.17.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed up $0.80 at $98.50. 



June hogs closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 110.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 99.83. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.53. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.97. Second support is April's low crossing at 86.25. 



April cattle closed up $0.55 at 126.55. 



April cattle closed higher on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above 50-day moving average crossing at 127.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off March's high, January's low crossing at 123.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.78. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 130.45. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 125.45. Second support the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 122.80. 

 

April Feeder cattle closed unchanged at $145.43. 



April Feeder cattle closed unchanged on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 147.20 would confirm that a low has been posted. If April extends the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 143.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 150.80. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 155.70. First support is March's low crossing at 143.50. Second support is January's low crossing at 142.62.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed slightly lower on Friday as it extends this year's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 8.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.81 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. 



May cocoa closed sharply higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, December's high crossing at 24.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.          



May sugar closed higher on Friday as it extends this year's trading range. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 13.42 is the next upside target. May renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 11.82 is the next downside target. 



May cotton closed higher on Friday ending a three-day correction off Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 79.88 is the next upside target.  

Comments
By metmike - April 15, 2019, 11:25 a.m.
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Thanks again tallpine!