RR economic indicator - not so positive
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Started by bear - April 15, 2019, 6:31 p.m.

not so impressive currently...

for march y-o-y ... 

u.s.a. ... down  more than 4%

the aussies... down 11%

europe mostly flat ... up one half of 1%

for the 1st qrt jan,feb,march...

u.s.a. ... down 1%

aussies ...down 4%

europe... down one half of 1%

yes, as usual categories are mixed, so... coal and coke are down big.  autos are up a bit.  lumber is down (does this represent a soft constuction market?), waste is up,  but the all other category is down.   (for u.s.a).  and intermodal is up.  (final product consumer items?).

By metmike - April 15, 2019, 11:36 p.m.
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Thanks bear!

I found this indicator earlier this evening for the first time. Have you ever seen it before?


                St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI)    

"The STLFSI measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from 18 weekly data series: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators. Each of these variables captures some aspect of financial stress. Accordingly, as the level of financial stress in the economy changes, the data series are likely to move together.

How to Interpret the Index:
The average value of the index, which begins in late 1993, is designed to be zero. Thus, zero is viewed as representing normal financial market conditions. Values below zero suggest below-average financial market stress, while values above zero suggest above-average financial market stress."


List of Data Series Used to Construct the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index



 Label in ChartSeries
FedFundEffective federal funds rate
Treas2y2-year Treasury
Treas10y10-year Treasury
Treas30y30-year Treasury
BAABaa-rated corporate
Mlynch_HighYld_MasterIIMerrill Lynch High-Yield Corporate Master II Index
Mlynch_BBBAAMerrill Lynch Asset-Backed Master BBB-rated
YieldCurve_10yr3moYield curve: 10-year Treasury minus 3-month Treasury
Corp_CRSCorporate Baa-rated bond minus 10-year Treasury (corporate credit risk spread)
HighYield_CRSMerrill Lynch High-Yield Corporate Master II Index minus 10-year Treasury (high-yield credit risk spread)
LiborOIS_3mo3-month London Interbank Offering Rate–Overnight Index Swap spread (3-month LIBOR-OIS spread)
TED3-month Treasury-Eurodollar spread (TED spread)
CPS_3mo3-month commercial paper minus 3-month Treasury bill (commercial paper spread (3-month))
EMBIJ.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus
VIXChicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX)
Mlynch_ BMVI_1moMerrill Lynch Bond Market Volatility Index (1-month)
BIR_10yr10-year nominal Treasury yield minus 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Security yield (breakeven inflation rate (10-year))
SP500_FIS&P 500 Financials Index
By metmike - April 15, 2019, 11:38 p.m.
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Here's another interesting one:

                Leading Index for the United States (USSLIND)    


"The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state's coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill."