KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, April 18, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 206K; previous 196K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -8K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1713000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -13K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 548.0K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 280.4K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 474.4K)
8:30 AM ET. April Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 11.0; previous 13.7)
Prices Paid (previous 19.7)
Employment (previous 9.6)
New Orders (previous 1.9)
Prices Received (previous 24.7)
Delivery Times (previous 8.8)
Inventories (previous 17.2)
Shipments (previous 20.0)
8:30 AM ET. March Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.9%; previous -0.2%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.7%; previous -0.4%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
9:45 AM ET. April US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.8)
9:45 AM ET. April US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 52.8; previous 52.5)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. February Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.4%; previous +0.8%)
10:00 AM ET. March Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.2%)
Leading Index (previous 111.5)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1155B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +25B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, April 19, 2019
8:30 AM ET. March New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.22M; previous 1.162M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected +5.0%; previous -8.7%)
Building Permits (expected 1.3M; previous 1.296M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous -1.6%)
8:30 AM ET. Annual Advance GDP by Industry
10:00 AM ET. March Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
N/A Marianas: Good Friday
N/A U.S. stock markets closed on Good Friday
Monday, April 22, 2019
8:30 AM ET. March CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous -0.29)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -0.18)
10:00 AM ET. March Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.51M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +11.8%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.5)
Median Price (USD) (previous 249500)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +3.6%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off December's low, last-October's high crossing at 7767.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7540.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 7733.50. Second resistance is the October 3rd 2018 high crossing at 7767.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7540.18. Second support is the 50-day moving average low crossing at 7312.56.
The June S&P 500 gapped down and was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2870.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off December's low, last-September high crossing at 2957.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 2922.50. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 2957.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2870.55. Second support is the50-day moving average crossing at 2820.40.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight due to short covering. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the reaction low crossing at 145-03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-01 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-01. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 150-21. First support is the reaction low crossing at 145-03. Second support is March's low crossing at 143-16.
June T-notes were higher due to short covering overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the reaction low crossing at 122.120 then March's low crossing at 121.155 are the next downside targets. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.218 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.218. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 124.310. First support is the reaction low crossing at 122.120. Second resistance is March's low crossing at 121.155.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
May crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends a two-week old trading range above the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.39. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 67.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.27 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 64.79. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 67.68. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.05.
May heating oil was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 200.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.89. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 200.05.
May unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 207.02. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.54. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 202.37. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.25.
May Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's sharp decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, last-April's low crossing at 2.489 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.671 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.671. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.738. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.501. Second support is last-April's low crossing at 2.489.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 97.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.30 are needed to confirm that a double top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 97.16. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.30. Second support is March's low crossing at 95.17.
The June Euro was lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.85. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 115.35. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 112.62. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below March's low crossing at 1.3026 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3160 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1.3441. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 1.3603. First support is March's low crossing at 1.3026. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9930 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0073 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0073. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1.0191. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.9939. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9930.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the March-April trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.64 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes below March's low crossing at 73.43 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.64. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.46. First support is March's low crossing at 74.43. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, December's low crossing at 0.0894 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0907 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0907. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0918. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0896. Second support is December's low crossing at 0.0894.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1299.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1293.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1299.40. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1272.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70.
May silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.644 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.122 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.122. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.392. First support is Monday's low crossing at 14.795. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.644.
May copper was sharply lower overnight while extending the February-April trading range. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 290.03 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 290.03. Second support is March's low crossing at 283.45.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.64 1/2 wouldconfirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next likely downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.64 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.80 3/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.55 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.
May wheat was lower overnight and is poised to extend Tuesday's sharp decline.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends Tuesday's decline, March's low crossing at 4.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.69 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.75 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.97 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.42 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.27.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 3 1/2-cents at 4.20 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.34 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.34 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.49. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.14 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.04.
May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.41 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.38 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.41 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.20 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.15 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were higher overnight as they consolidated some of this week's loss. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the September-December 2018 rally crossing at 8.65 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.95 1/2 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.95 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.06. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December 2018 rally crossing at 8.78. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-December 2018 rally crossing at 8.65 3/4.
May soybean meal was slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 300.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 308.90 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 312.30. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 316.50. First support is the Wednesday's low crossing at 303.50. Second support is March's low crossing at 300.30.
May soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.85 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 29.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.58. First support is March's low crossing at 28.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.17.
Thanks tallpine!