Previous corn market discussions/threads:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/26882/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27813/

The ideal time frame for planting corn is coming up. The market will be scrutinizing  the 2 week forecasts every day. 

This operational GFS model product is updated every 12 hours. The GFS is updated every 6 hours.

Grain stocks and planted acres for Corn were both extremely bearish on the USDA report at the end of last month.

2013 was very wet and planting delayed

https://www.beefmagazine.com/grain-prices/will-2013-be-slowest-corn-planting-year-ever

So is this the slowest ever(2013)? That depends on how you judge “slowest.” We’ve always shown 1993 as the slowest year, primarily because it got started so slowly, with less than 10% of acres planted by the end of April. Like this year, producers caught up some in mid-May 1993, planting 53% of the acres between May 5 and May 19 of that year.

But there are a number of years that had a lower percentage of acres planted by week 21, which this year corresponds  to May 26. Only 71% of acres were planted by this week in 1995, and only 78% were planted in 1996. Only 82% were planted by now in 2009.

The national average yield in 1995 was 13.2 bu. below trend. For 1996, the yield got within 1.5 bu. of trend, while 2009 saw the current record corn yield of 164.7 bu./acre. That was 11.9 bu./acre above the 1960-present trend, and 8 bu./acre larger than the 1996-present “biotech era” trend.

Export inspections this morning:

Corn  and wheat pretty good, beans poor:

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

Crop condition report just released:

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog1719.txt

Corn planted 6%  vs 3% last week and 5% last year but behind the 12% average. Not the slowest.

Beans 1% planted vs 2% last year and 2% average.

Cotton planted 9% vs 10% last year and 9% average

Oats planted 36% vs 31% last year and 51% average

Spring Wheat 5% vs 3% last year and 22% average

Winter wheat condition  62% gd/ex + 2% vs last week and compared to 31% last year.

When  is the best time to plant corn?

https://www.pioneer.com/home/site/us/products/corn/high-yield/plant-date/

Figure 1. Adjusted gross income responses to planting dates in the central, north-central and northern Corn Belt over 18 years

What about soil temperatures?

https://www.pioneer.com/home/site/us/products/corn/high-yield/plant-date/

A Pioneer study on SE showed that hybrids with higher SE had better stand establishment than those with lower SE in cold soils. (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Average stand establishment for high and low SE hybrids in 6 emergence locations. 

very complete report MM.....we all appreciate your interests

Crop progress woefully behind. 0% spring wheat planted in Mn. and with rivers still at flood stage and .5-2" rains on super saturated soils today we'll fall even further behind. Mother Nature's supply management program.

http://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/7s75dm69z/2514nt82s/prog1719.pdf

Thanks cliff,

Last year there was no Spring Wheat or corn planted up there either on this date.........then you got lucky in May with record warmth and dry to save the day as everything dried out fast.

Not looking so good the next 2 weeks in your neck of the woods............but things will hopefully change on weather models.

Temps were more than 6 degrees above normal for the entire month of May last year!! Hopefully, a stretch of a couple of weeks like that will happen for you in May 2019.

How did last years early Spring snowstorm and cold/wet early Spring affect the eventual planting? On June 3, 2018, 98% of the Minnesota corn was planted which was actually 2% ahead of the average for that date. Odds of temps like last year to dry it out that fast are low in 2019 but still pretty good to get your crop in by the start of June. 

https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/pv63g183t/kk91fn000/CropProg-06-04-2018.txt

How did the late snowstorm and cold/wet Spring last year effect development of the MN crop last year thru pollination?

USDA August `13, 2018 crop condition: 77% Good/Excellent in MN. 2% poor.

https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/1831cm62n/r207tq88g/CropProg-08-13-2018.txt

Crop yield estimate by state after pollination:

          

It really is getting harder and harder to hurt these crops with increasing CO2 and beneficial climate change. Hopefully you'll have another bin buster or close to it again even if early planting is not going to be in the cards for the 2nd year in a row. By historical standards, we are way overdue for some major adversity during the  growing season(last time was the drought of 2012-which was the first drought since 1988- a record between droughts) but climate change has changed those historical odds for adversity from drought during the growing season(the biggest risk to crops) to being lower than before. 

The risk for wet Springs/planting seasons is a bit elevated with climate change though. 

Wednesday  wx updated above

Great stuff Mike!  Thanks for putting all that together.  

this "puking camel formation" in grains is getting real old

YW Jim!

Great to see you posting again!

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.65472&lon=-85.98153389999999&site=all&smap=1&searchresult=Indianapolis%2C%20IN%2046259%2C%20USA#.XMHJbixYZjp    MM is this what your forecast is showing....sitting at zero % planted and this a pretty damn bleak stretch coming

Thanks mcfarm and sorry to give you nothing but bad weather news...............very wet the next 2 weeks.

The latest weather for Thursday has been updated

Sunday weather updated

Monday weather below

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/28830/

Export inspections from a short while ago:  

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

   Cornbroker21‏ @Cornbroker21                  52s53 seconds ago              

Export Inspections for 4-25-2019#Corn #Soybeans#Wheat#Sorghum

Crop progress report:

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog1819.txt

Planting progress

Corn 15%  vs 27% average

Beans 3% vs 6% average

HRS 13% vs 33% average

Winter wheat 64% gd/Ex vs 62%

Planting delayed states in corn:

Illinois 9% planted (5yr avg 43%)

Indiana 2% (5yr 17%)

Minnesota 2% (5yr 24%)

Ohio 2% (13%)

Spring #wheat:

Minnesota 2% (33%)

N. Dakota 5% (21%)

S. Dakota 8% (60%)

Montana 23% (34%)

Could get real interesting here!

This is the last operational GFS, a bit wetter.   The outside pink is 6"  up to S. Iowa and C. Illinois even N. Indiana.

The bright pinks are 10" in the next 2 weeks. This is bullish but shift it a bit northward and it becomes ultra bullish.

There is no sign that the very wet week 2 pattern will end......and temperatures are uncertain.

If everything shifts a bit more south..............then its actually bearish!

The 2nd map is the risk of heavy precipitation. The NWS rarely goes HIGH for an event more than a week from now.   The moderate is all the way into IA and IL.

Forecast Hour: 384
 Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

metmike: The heaviest rains in the 2 week  forecast have shifted farther south overnight.

      Craig Solberg‏ @CraigSolberg                  2h2 hours ago              

National corn planting progress (since 1987) on April 28

Export sales were poor:

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/highlite.htm