KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +2.0%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.3%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)
9:00 AM ET. February U.S. Monthly House Price Index
10:00 AM ET. March New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 667K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +4.9%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 6.1)
10:00 AM ET. April Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 10)
Shipments Idx (previous 2)
1:30 PM ET. Federal Reserve Board open meeting
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.1M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.6M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.3M)
Wednesday, April 24, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 459.0)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -3.5%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 280.7)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.9%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1453.0)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -8.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 455.154M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.396M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 227.955M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.174M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 127.691M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.362M)
Refinery Usage (previous 87.7%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.893M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.423M)
N/A Cosmetic Compliance Summit
Thursday, April 25, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 192K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -5K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1653000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -63K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 966K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 403.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 545.5K)
8:30 AM ET. March Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous -1.6%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -1.9%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter U.S. Housing Vacancies
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1247B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +92B)
11:00 AM ET. April Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 17)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 28)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 10)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 22)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, April 26, 2019
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +2.2%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.7%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.7%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.8%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.5%)
10:00 AM ET. April University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 98.4)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 88.8)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.3)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off December's low, last-October's high crossing at 7767.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7578.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 7748.50. Second resistance is the October 3rd 2018 high crossing at 7767.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7578.84. Second support is the 50-day moving average low crossing at 7344.87.
The June S&P 500 was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2881.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off December's low, last-September high crossing at 2957.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 2922.50. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 2957.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2881.53. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2828.69.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 147-25 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, the reaction low crossing at 145-03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 147-25. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 150-21. First support is the reaction low crossing at 145-03. Second support is March's low crossing at 143-16.
June T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.175 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, the reaction low crossing at 122.120 then March's low crossing at 121.155 are the next downside targets. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.175. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 124.310. First support is the reaction low crossing at 122.120. Second resistance is March's low crossing at 121.155.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
June crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Oil surged higher on Monday posting its highest close since late October, as the U.S. declared it would end waivers for countries to import Iranian oil, as part of a bid by the Trump administration to push Iran’s exports to zero.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 67.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 66.19. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 67.73. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.83.
June heating oil was higher overnight and tested the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.48. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 200.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.48. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 201.00.
June unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 222.18. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 202.28. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.29.
June Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 2.444 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.689 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.636. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.689. First support is last-week's low crossing at 2.525. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.444.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.34 are needed to confirm that a double top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 97.29. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.34. Second support is March's low crossing at 95.17.
The June Euro was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.78 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.78. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 115.35. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 112.62. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 1.2854 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3160 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1.3441. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 1.3603. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.3012. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9833 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0062 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0062. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1.0191. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.9859. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9833.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the March-April trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.Closes below March's low crossing at 73.43 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.64 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.64. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.46. First support is March's low crossing at 74.43. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, December's low crossing at 0.0894 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0906 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0906. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0918. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0896. Second support is December's low crossing at 0.0894.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1294.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1288.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1294.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1272.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70.
May silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.071 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.644 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.071. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.356. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 14.795. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.644.
May copper was slightly higher overnight while extending the February-April trading range. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 290.33 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 290.33. Second support is March's low crossing at 283.45.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was lower overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next likely downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.62 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.62. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.69 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.52. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.
May wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, March's low crossing at 4.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.66 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.58 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.66. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.33. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.27.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down 8 1/4-cents at 4.11 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.31 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.31 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.45 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.10 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.04.
May Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.35 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.35. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.50. First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.08. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.04.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were steady to fractionally lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the September-December 2018 rally crossing at 8.65 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.92 1/2 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.92 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.03 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 8.74 3/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-December 2018 rally crossing at 8.65 3/4.
May soybean meal was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 300.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 307.50 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 312.30. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 316.50. First support is the Monday's low crossing at 302.40. Second support is March's low crossing at 300.30.
May soybean oil was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.81 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 29.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.49. First support is March's low crossing at 28.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.17.
Thanks tallpine!
Still watching corn. The weather forecast for planting has continued to improve over the past week and put pressure on corn. Now looking for the possibility for the forecast to turn wet enough to cause a reversal higher because of the trading set up.
May corn was lower overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next likely downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.62 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.62. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.69 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.52. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.