Weather Wednesday
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Started by metmike - April 24, 2019, 10:21 a.m.

Happy April 24th!   Do something to make somebody feel GREAT today. Don't just think about it........do it. Then think about it.............and how you just made somebody's world a tiny bit greener. 


Our local chess tournament last month got some great coverage. I'm extraordinarily proud of the kids and also the adults that helped run this event:

https://www.courierpress.com/story/news/local/2019/03/09/spring-chess-tournament-opens-young-minds-new-possibilities/3097513002/


 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere. My planting weather forecast HAS turned wetter but the excessive rains in week 2 have shifted just south of the main corn belt overnight.


Here are the latest hazards across the country.



Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   



Wind map    Hit this with your cursor: 

US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Wind Chill Map



      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!

Legend

                                        

                          


Current Jet Stream




  



Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

Comments
By metmike - April 24, 2019, 10:23 a.m.
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Average temperatures surrounded by a lot of warmth.

   

By metmike - April 24, 2019, 10:27 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:


Warming to well above average southern half to 2/3rds. Cool northern 1/3rd.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - April 24, 2019, 10:30 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below


Front between cool north and warm south meanders and increases rain in the forecast.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

By metmike - April 24, 2019, 10:31 a.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/daily

By metmike - April 24, 2019, 10:32 a.m.
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By metmike - April 24, 2019, 10:33 a.m.
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Excessive Rainfall Forecasts

 

  Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

 


 

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19

 

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

 

Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/24/19 - 12Z 04/25/19
By metmike - April 24, 2019, 10:33 a.m.
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Severe Storm risk

                                    

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri
Issued: 20/1624Z
Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0546Z
Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0711Z
Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook       

                                    


            

                

By metmike - April 24, 2019, 10:36 a.m.
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Current Dew Points


 
Current Dew Points

                                    


Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                          

Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
 

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

                                  


    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


 

Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

IT's BEEN DRYING OUT IN THE CENTRAL BELT BUT IT WILL GET WET AGAIN THERE!


Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - April 24, 2019, 10:38 a.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data. Still too wet over a large area even with recently drying.........but conditions have improved and planting has started in some places.  Very warm temperatures this week will assist with more drying in some places the next few days, then it gets pretty wet again..


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#


      Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Changehttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

                                    


            

                

By metmike - April 24, 2019, 10:39 a.m.
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Currently, there is 0%  of the Cornbelt/Midwest with drought. There is no place even slightly dry there.

 The market will be keying on precip forecasts for planting concerns for the next month.


https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

            Drought Monitor for conus

                                    


By metmike - April 24, 2019, 10:43 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:


Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past:


Last Monday: The big change on the mean today is the upper level heights(ridging) building from the south into the Midwest compared to yesterday. At the very least, this would mean warm temperatures. This could also deflect/effect the storm track/jet stream.

Tuesday: Warm solutions on majority, with upper level high in the Southeast on numerous solutions and an active southern stream on some solutions that still carry the risk of wet weather in the Plains.

Wednesday: Clearly warm again. How long and how strong for the upper level ridge when its in the center of the country?  It shuts down the southern stream/shunts it  much farther westward in that position. If it shifts east, the potential to turn wet again increases. 

Thursday: Solidly warm and leaning dry.  Just the very warm temps by themselves, along with an increasingly strong sun will help dry things out. Still suspicious that the southern stream could become more active and be aimed towards the middle of the country because of the trough in the West.

Friday: Still very warm with increasing odds for an extended dry period. Today's upper level ridge on the mean is farther west, far enough west to completely shut down any southern stream. The mean upper level trough is also 500 miles farther west, now just off the West Coast. 

Saturday: Glad that I waited to get this just updated 12z run. It's incredibly different from previous runs for an ensemble. HOLY COW! The just updated 12z GFS operational model shows something similar but the GFS ensembles do not..........which is the southern stream coming to life with gusto! The majority of solutions have deep upper level troughs to cut off lows somewhere between just off the West Coast to the Plains with tremendous energy emanating from the tropical Pacific El Nino. With an upper level ridge in the Southeast, there will be strong southerly flow and deep Gulf of Mexico moisture available............leading to the potential for excessive rain events in the Plains to points eastward. This is a huge change and during week 2 and also just on the Canadian ensemble vs the GFS ensemble showing these features over 500 miles farther west, closer to yesterday and not nearly as amplied and is actually dry for the same period because of it......  so it may be overdone.............which is usually what we assume when an extreme change comes so quickly.......or this model might be on to something. 

Sunday: Big question mark for this late week 2 period about several features..........for this model(I should note that the other models are not nearly as wet and don't have this potent upper level trough in the West) The  main one is going to be where the potentially potent, active and wet southern stream is aimed at.  We're not as bullish with the pattern today as 24 hours ago (which was very bullish) for this model but the position of the features in the mean is still potentially very wet to excessively wet in early May for an impossible to pinpoint region in the middle of the country. Where that will be depends of the location of any upper level ridging downstream in South or Southeast. The zone of any extreme rains will be around the periphery of any such upper level ridging...........that assists in deep Gulf moisture flowing north bound. The farther west the upper level ridging is, the more of the South/Midwest will be underneath its shield of protection from the energy coming in from the Pacific. 

Monday: Much different picture with the Upper level trough.........on the mean farther west and MUCH less southern stream, especially for individual solutions. Instead of potentially turning much wetter, this solution leans to the dry side.  It's 2 weeks out, so not surprising for changes.

Tuesday: Around half the members look impressive with a southern stream trough in the Southwest with the energy aimed northeast. Several have almost the opposite solution. So it would get very wet............or be dry.............leaning wet.

Wednesday: Stronger northern stream, cooler temperatures, especially northern half. Potential for potent southern stream but where will it be aimed? Looks like a bit farther south today, being diverted by northern stream energy to the north.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on May 09, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - April 24, 2019, 10:47 a.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:


Last Monday:  Definitely looks pretty warm on most solutions. Rains are uncertain.  Depends on if we have an active flow or the jet stream is diverted away from the Midwest or only pays brief visits.

Tuesday: Drier and no southern stream aimed towards the Midwest. Very warm.

Wednesday:  Still very warm in week 2 and mostly drier. Could start turning wet in the Plains/Upper Midwest late in the period?

Thursday: Looks warm and leaning dry. Maybe wet in the far S.Plains.

Friday: Upper level low in the far west to downstream ridging means warm and dry in the middle of the country for week 2. The southern stream will be aimed the extreme southwestern parts of the S.Plains, where precip could be heavy(W.TX for instance). This pattern continues to favor much better planting weather coming up.

Saturday: Watching to see if more solutions on this model amplify the southern stream similar to the Canadian ensembles. Some show the potential for this.

Sunday: This model does not look that wet at all. In fact, much of the belt is pretty dry and very warm. Most solutions don't have much southern stream.

Monday: Warm and dry under the upper level ridge in the South to points outward still under its protection. Some wetness around the periphery, just out side of that protection.....Upper Midwest/Plains?

Tuesday: Cut off upper level low to deep trough in Southeast Canada will help some cold fronts to push south of the border.  Watching the Southwest US for stronger signal on southern stream.

Wedneday: Battle between northern stream with cool air in the northern US and southern stream with moisture and the threat of excessive rains from the south.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

                                    


            

                

By metmike - April 24, 2019, 10:52 a.m.
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Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above)


Last Monday: Pretty decent positive anomaly across the northern half of the US into Southeastern Canada..........so warm temps. Not sure on rains but its NOT an excessive rain set up in the Midwest.

Tuesday: Even bigger positive anomaly NorthCentral US. High confidence for warmth. This would shutdown the moisture to some places................possibly forcing the southern stream to take a track that keeps it from being aimed at the Midwest.

Wednesday: Still big positive anomaly Upper Midwest to Hudson Bay. WARM again! Still dry for alot of the Midwest in this position but could turn wet if it starts shifting eastward.

Thursday: Big positive anomaly centered from the Great Lakes to points southwestward assures warm temps. Much of the area will benefit with dry weather underneath it. 

Friday: Large positive anomaly across the entire country, except the extreme Southwest on the top map.

Saturday: Still a modest positive anomaly across much of the country and warm temperatures but confidence has dropped to very low for late week 2 as a pattern change to much wetter is possible.........but if the main features set up farther west, it will instead be dry.

Sunday: Still the same modest positive upper level/height anomaly across much of the country. This argues for warm temperatures.............though a new negative anomaly in Southeast Canada brings a potential for cold fronts to penetrate in the Upper Midwest to Northeast. Upper level trough off the Southwest Coast needs to be watched for southern stream potential feeding east.

Monday: Modest positive anomaly for upper level heights most places again but the negative anomaly in Southeast Canada is enough to potentially drive down some cooler air on its backside into the Upper Midwest and Northeast.

Tuesday: Negative anomaly in Southeast Canada will push some cool air into the Upper Midwest/Northeast from the northern stream. This could suppress the southern stream farther south...........or, if that is strong enough, the southern stream may send moisture into the cooler air from the northern stream. Upper level ridging in the South will cause it to be warm there. 

Wednesday. Negative anomaly in Southeast Canada will be steering northern stream chilly air south of the border. Positive anomaly center shifted to Southwest Canada helps establish a bit of a couplet, as well as positive anomalies farther north. How much will this suppress the potent/wet southern stream coming from the Southwest upper level trough and potential El Nino energy from the tropical Pacific?

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast producthttps://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

By metmike - April 24, 2019, 10:56 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.


Monday: NAO dips negative and is a factor in potential cooling in the Upper Midwest/Northeast.

Tuesday: Negative NAO will steer some cooler air into the Northern Tier. Also a negative PNA, so the cool air will not go to far south. 

Wed: Negative NAO will brings cooler northern stream energy/air masses into the Northern tier. How far south can it divert the potent southern stream? The cool air from the north, will probably be overlapped by the moisture coming up from the south in the battle zone between the northern stream and southern stream.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/top

By metmike - April 24, 2019, 10:56 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.





Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - April 24, 2019, 10:57 a.m.
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/precip_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

By metmike - April 24, 2019, 1:11 p.m.
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The 12z operational GFS was not that much different than the previous run for the Cornbelt. It turns much cooler late in week 2.


It's very wet in the 6-10 day period and like overnight, it shifts everything to the south after day 10 and has mostly dry weather.

The heaviest rains were, again in Arkansas even a bit farther south on this run.

However, there is still enough heavy rain in the 6-10 day period to tally up some 5 inch totals from southeast IA and points southeast.



     

Forecast Hour: 384
 Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif