Q1:19 GDP +3.2%
9 responses | 0 likes
Started by TimNew - April 26, 2019, 8:55 a.m.

Quite a bit above forecast.   

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/economy-grows-32-in-first-quarter-gdp-shows-much-stronger-than-anticipated-2019-04-26?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts\

" Reports of the demise of the U.S. economy proved unfounded as first-quarter activity showed surprising strength. The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.2% annual pace in the first three months of 2019, the government said Friday.

 

The gain was well above forecasts. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 2.3% increase in gross domestic product. The economy grew at a 2.2% rate in the final three months of 2018."


Comments
By metmike - April 26, 2019, 12:24 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks for the great news Tim!!

By carlberky - April 26, 2019, 1:06 p.m.
Like Reply

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/26/stock-market-gdp-data-and-corporate-earnings-in-focus-on-wall-street.html

"The economic expansion will set new records for longevity in July and it looks like there is no stopping this economy," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG, in a note. "We had all but given up on the first quarter with the Federal government shutdown ending January 25, frigid winter weather conditions shutting down manufacturing production, and the fears of a world growth slowdown."

"So far the fears are unfounded," Rupkey said.

"But stock gains were kept in check after companies like Exxon Mobil and Intel delivered quarterly reports that disappointed investors."

By TimNew - April 26, 2019, 2:54 p.m.
Like Reply

I think equities have moved too far too fast and buyers are taking a breather.  IMO this bull is far from dead 

By joj - April 26, 2019, 5:35 p.m.
Like Reply

Can someone explain to me why Trump and his minions are calling for the Fed to cut interest rates while the economy is growing at 3.2%?

Separately, Inflation seems within target limits of the Fed.  Unless, of course you look at things like healthcare, education and asset prices.

The Fed used to say that their interest rate moves were "data dependent".  They through that out the door when they recently said "no interest rate increases for the rest of the year".  What about the data between now and then?  It sure looks like they are caving to one of 2 things.  Market corrections or president Trump.  Or both.

By metmike - April 26, 2019, 9:19 p.m.
Like Reply

"Can someone explain to me why Trump and his minions are calling for the Fed to cut interest rates while the economy is growing at 3.2%?"

They want the economy to continue to experience more strength.

By TimNew - April 27, 2019, 6:20 a.m.
Like Reply

Not that long ago, there was a time that a GDP of 3.2 was considered nice, but a long way from spectacular. We've been reconditioned. Also, the latest report blew forecasts out the window. But we had 7 rate hikes in <2 years vs 2 in the previous 8. Reasonable to expect the Fed to taper a bit. 

By cliff-e - April 27, 2019, 9:13 a.m.
Like Reply

From the daily job cuts page. This and many more closings and layoffs. The fake 45 economy is creeping in on us.

http://kstp.com/business/3m-to-cut-2000-jobs/5329862/

By TimNew - April 27, 2019, 9:48 a.m.
Like Reply

Yes.  Forget that we are adding an average 200k+ jobs per month.   If I were you, I'd short everything!! RIGHT NOW!!!!

By metmike - April 28, 2019, 1:19 p.m.
Like Reply

"The fake 45 economy is creeping in on us."

Yes, with all the fake people, getting fake paychecks at fake jobs, buying fake stuff..............watching real tv on CNN(-: